2020 Cooperative Election Study data (preliminary) is released

lizkat

Leftie in the Sticks
Vaccinated
Site Donor
Posts
5,363
Reaction score
11,461
Location
Catskill Mountains
Here's info on a huge likely voter survey (over 70k likely voters) with a lot of detailed breakouts. The data is from early September through this week.


The study, which reached over 70,000 online respondents from late September through this week, will be matched up after the election with official voter data to determine precisely how groups across the country turned out. Set for release in February 2021, the resulting data will be similar to an exit poll, while in some ways offering more precise and detailed information.

This year, for the first time, the survey also tabulated how respondents voted for president four years ago. It found Mr. Biden holding onto the support of 95 percent of voters who had cast ballots for Mrs. Clinton in 2016, while Mr. Trump was retaining 90 percent of his supporters from four years ago. Among voters who had not turned out in 2016, Mr. Biden led by a 2-to-1 margin, although many in this group didn’t express a vote preference.

The study, which was previously known as the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, has been conducted since 2006 by a consortium of university researchers spearheaded by Harvard.

And here's the referenced link in that NYT piece to the preliminary data from the survey, it has a slider for categories so you can see what you want of it.

 
Last edited:

SuperMatt

Site Master
Vaccinated
Posts
6,783
Reaction score
13,024
So, 90% of Trump supporters from 2016 still support him? I would have given them the benefit of the doubt in 2016, but after 4 years seeing how incompetent, cruel, and racist he truly is, I have to assume those attributes are the reason they elected him in the first place. Shame on them.
 

Alli

Perfection
Staff Member
Vaccinated
Site Donor
Posts
4,563
Reaction score
9,290
Location
Alabackwards
So, 90% of Trump supporters from 2016 still support him? I would have given them the benefit of the doubt in 2016, but after 4 years seeing how incompetent, cruel, and racist he truly is, I have to assume those attributes are the reason they elected him in the first place. Shame on them.
I can’t believe that many of his supporters still think he’s fit for the job. Or maybe they’re all voting for him in hopes that he’ll drop dead and Pence will step in.
 

Scepticalscribe

Site Master
Vaccinated
Posts
6,154
Reaction score
8,846
So, 90% of Trump supporters from 2016 still support him? I would have given them the benefit of the doubt in 2016, but after 4 years seeing how incompetent, cruel, and racist he truly is, I have to assume those attributes are the reason they elected him in the first place. Shame on them.

Well said.

This conclusion is one that I have - with a real and genuine reluctance, because I prefer not to try to assume the worst of people - also reached.

Their support is given to Mr Trump and their votes are cast for Mr Trump, not in spite of his deplorable and ghastly record, his narcissism, malice and cruelty, corruption, and racism and sexism, but because of them.

Shame on them.

Actually, they disgust me.
 
OP
lizkat

lizkat

Leftie in the Sticks
Vaccinated
Site Donor
Posts
5,363
Reaction score
11,461
Location
Catskill Mountains
The thing to focus on at the moment though is the fact that Trump losing even 5% of the support he had in 2016 is a move in the wrong direction regarding his potential for a re-election. He needed to pick up popular votes outside his 2016 base, not actually lose any of them. It's problematic that the swing away from him appears to have momentum in the Rust Belt since those skinny margins of victory there in 2016 are essentially what landed him in the Oval Office.

I also wonder if some Roman Catholics who went for Trump in 2016 on the anti-choice issue and who happen to be voting November 3 and in person, will have decided since Barrett's confirmation that a 6-3 court is "good enough" and will revert to consideration of Trump's track record on other aspects... including his character, and the incongruities between their church's teachings on things like social justice versus the way Trump's policy directors and Trump himself have acted in the past four years.

It's hard to say whether the USA's extreme polarization will have dulled the sensitivities of the so-called observantly religious to the social injustices perpetrated by an administration that has only "talked the talk" of certain high profile Christian evangelists -- preachers who have tended to wink at the Trump era's selfish and often inhumane governance.

Will such voters fault Trump for widening a gap between scriptural or doctrinal admonitions and what the pols who confess to that religion have actually done in office since 2017? Or will they figure the Dems will expand the court so it's no time to count on a 6-3 majority as "enough" to override Democratic Party legislative initiatives.

I have no idea. But I had not expected there to be so much pre-election doubt in 2020 that Trump would get trounced on his actual track record by his 2016 supporters. Apparently the cherry pickers of religious scripture are pretty good at cherry picking items from his track record too.
 
Top Bottom