2020 Presidential Election, The Day After

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PearsonX

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Since I've not seen this written anywhere here's some factoids about this election:
  • Biden will reach >80M votes in the final tally
  • Biden will win with a more than 6M vote, ~4% difference
  • Biden will win with the same number of electoral votes as Trump did in 2016
  • Biden's victory eventually will have still been based on 44K Votes (!!)
How insane is this? 6M differential yet still 44K votes decide the election?!
From this stand point this is indeed a narrower victory Trump had in 2016, as his advantage was somewhere around 70K.
 
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SuperMatt

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Since I've not seen this written anywhere here's some factoids about this election:
  • Biden will reach >80M votes in the final tally
  • Biden will win with a more than 6M vote, ~4% difference
  • Biden will win with the same number of electoral votes as Trump did in 2016
  • Biden's victory eventually will have still been based on 44K Votes (!!)
How insane is this? 6M differential yet still 44K votes decide the election?!
From this stand point this is indeed a narrower victory Trump had in 2016, as his advantage was somewhere around 70K.
I don‘t know about the 44,000 number. Didn’t he win Pennsylvania by 150K? But yes, the electoral college is a s***show. We already have a senate that gives outsized rights to voters in low-population states. We do NOT need an electoral college in this millennium. Popular vote should select the president - period.
 

lizkat

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So how can we be in a place where this poll can pop out with a 2% error margin

elections in the post-factual era.jpg
 

Yoused

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PearsonX

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I don‘t know about the 44,000 number. Didn’t he win Pennsylvania by 150K? But yes, the electoral college is a s***show. We already have a senate that gives outsized rights to voters in low-population states. We do NOT need an electoral college in this millennium. Popular vote should select the president - period.
I counted the states won with the lowest margin that would flip the results:

GA (16): ~13K
AZ (11): ~10.5K
WI (10): ~20.5K
Sum (37): 44K => 269 electoral votes for both candidates, which would have been an electoral tie broken off by Republicans.

I mentioned this for a reason. This was an anxiety provokingly narrow win for such a broad victory...

To contrast it with the same estimates from 2016:

MI (*16): ~11K
PA (20): ~44K
WI (10): ~23K
Sum (46): 78K
 
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Yoused

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I don‘t know about the 44,000 number. Didn’t he win Pennsylvania by 150K?
No, as it stands,
  • NV: 33,596 (2.4%)
  • AZ: 10,457 (0.3%)
  • WI: 20,565 (0.4%)
  • MI: 154,187 (2.8%)
  • PA: 81,479 (1.2%)
  • GA: 12,670 (0.2%)
Total 6-state margin: 312,954, avg 52,159 across the 6.
 

Yoused

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I counted the states won with the lowest margin that would flip the results:

GA (16): ~13K
AZ (11): ~10.5K
WI (10): ~20.5K
Sum (37): 44K => 269 electoral votes for both candidates, which would have been an electoral tie broken off by Republicans.
Yes, except Joe only needed to win one of those states, not all 3.
 

PearsonX

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Yes, except Joe only needed to win one of those states, not all 3.
My perspective is the opposite end. Trump's best way to victory would have been winning the GA/AZ/WI trio, and he was a total of 44K votes away from that. In contrast, Hilary was 78K votes away from the shortest route of victory through winning MI/PA/WI.
 

lizkat

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At any rate and however one wants to look at it, Trump lost... and I'm w/ Edward Norton on his series of tweets that boil down to "call Trump's bluff."

 

JayMysteri0

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A brief visit to 45 world


Wait! 👀 Those "investigators" are back from their paid vacation in Hawaii? I NEVER saw what they found there!

When one desperately begs for the legal system to do something illegal on your behalf.
 
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Huntn

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A brief visit to 45 world


When one desperately begs for the legal system to do something illegal on your behalf.
This episode if any illustrates the magnitude of the threat of having a corrupt sociopath as President on 2 levels, The Head Nut 1) and 2) his party of enablers who are either encouraging him or ignoring him. I’ll not be able in the foreseeable future to vote for anyone calling themselves a Republican again. They are too far gone to ever trust them to participate in a Democratic System following rules and honoring outcomes. o_O
 

lizkat

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This episode if any illustrates the magnitude of the threat of having a corrupt sociopath as President on 2 levels, The Head Nut 1) and 2) his party of enablers who are either encouraging him or ignoring him. I’ll not be able in the foreseeable future to vote for anyone calling themselves a Republican again. They are too far gone to ever trust them to participate in a Democratic System following rules and honoring outcomes. o_O

I just read a tweet about Trump planning to make "major announcements" whenever Biden schedules public appearances.

The Don can't stand an hour much less a day knowing he'll be in the shadow of someone else. Pathetic. He imagines he can run some kind of shadow government. This will not end well for Trump, even if it's initially the GOP that gets most annoyed.... Biden won't give a damn, he's planning on running an ACTUAL government.

 

PearsonX

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I just read a tweet about Trump planning to make "major announcements" whenever Biden schedules public appearances.

The Don can't stand an hour much less a day knowing he'll be in the shadow of someone else. Pathetic. He imagines he can run some kind of shadow government. This will not end well for Trump, even if it's initially the GOP that gets most annoyed.... Biden won't give a damn, he's planning on running an ACTUAL government.

This came up in this week's Real Time with Bill Maher. I think one of the guests said that Trump will set up a parallel White House in Mar-a-Lago; This was the funniest statement, and the guy originally intended it as a joke, but man, I think he was totally spot on.
 

Thomas Veil

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Oh, I totally see that happening. It would not surprise me at all if Trump tries to hold some "major" event at the same hour as Biden's inauguration.

And yeah, I think he'll act as if he's a government in exile. He will use that to stir even more anger within his zombie cult.

BTW, historian Jon Meacham (who was a guest) is awesome. If you ever need to get some perspective on what is going on, what caused things to happen and where they could take us, he's your man.
 
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lizkat

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Meanwhile journo Carl Bernstein tweeted a thread that identifies 21 GOP Senators who have privately "expressed disdain" for Trump. He asserts he's not breaking any pledges of confidentiality.

The 21 GOP Senators who have privately expressed their disdain for Trump are: Portman, Alexander, Sasse, Blunt, Collins, Murkowski, Cornyn, Thune, Romney, Braun, Young, Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Rubio, Grassley, Burr, Toomey, McSally, Moran, Roberts, Shelby.

Of course as some people remarked, that means even more Republican Senators have remained silent...


Start of thread is here
 

lizkat

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Aaaaand it's over in Michigan.


Gee but Biden only won it by a hundred fifty-five thousand votes, what was the rush to say he won such a close contest.... / S
 
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