Afghanistan (Again)

[Scepticalscribe]

This has turned into a shit show.

Just waiting for the video similar to the last person being airlifted off the Embassy in Saigon.

I will not deny that this arresting image was always at the back of my mind (and sometimes, also - compellingly - at the forefront of my mind) during the entire period of time that I was deployed in Kabul.

 

[Deleted member 215]

There was a quote in the New Yorker recently that I thought especially relevant: “The Taliban have made [Afghanistan] unworkable; unworkable, that is, without them.” The Taliban were never really beaten, merely held at bay as an insurgency, always poised to come back in full force.

The fact is that we offered no good alternative to the Taliban, simply a weak government and military that was completely helpless without direct U.S. presence (as this withdrawal has shown). There seems to have been significant mistrust between the Americans, who tended to live in isolated bases, and the Afghans we were purporting to be helping. This situation was untenable from the beginning.

Whatever we were doing for the past 20 years there was obviously woefully inadequate and ineffective. Otherwise the Taliban wouldn’t have been able to take over so swiftly the minute we start to leave. Whether we left in the summer or the fall, the outcome would’ve been the same.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Well, the New Yorker is not what I would regard as an authority on this subject.

And - as I have stated already in this thread - I recall briefing bright young American diplomats who not just never left the grounds of the US Embassy - (which is like one of those cities one sees in the original Star Trek, it is not a building, but an urban space, a vast urban space) but who had never met with, spoken to, or encountered an Afghan.

I used to wonder what their reports consisted of, and how they could claim to possess any knowledge of the country they were posted to.

More to the point, I have attended briefings delivered by senior Americans that were delusional to the point of surreal insanity; I could never work out whether they actually believed the delusional drivel that came out of their mouths, or wished to persuade themselves, their political masters, their fellow international interlocutors, or the locals they worked with, that they spoke the unvarnished truth.

In any case, the US never worked out what it wanted to do in Afghanistan.

If a punishment for 9/11, they should have targeted the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; if nation building, they should have stayed to finish the job, defined what they wanted to do, or focussed on institution building - and made it clear to Pakistan that their interference was unwarranted and unwanted and unwelcome - rather than embarking on a simultaneous fresh war (worse, a war started and fought on a lie, and on what was known to be a lie) in Iraq, which took up all their energy, time, attention, served as a distraction from their earlier focus on Afghanistan.

 

[Deleted member 215]

Yes, I do agree with that. If we had not so soon after invading Afghanistan gotten involved in the supreme blunder that was Iraq, our actions and objectives in Afghanistan might have been better carried out and better-defined. I do believe we had cause to go after Al-Qaeda and the Taliban that was harboring and supporting them, but we made a major mistake diverting our power and resources to a war based on a lie. ISIS and a renewed Taliban—that’s the legacy of Bush’s foreign policy.

 

[Herdfan]

I will not deny that this arresting image was always at the back of my mind (and sometimes, also - compellingly - at the forefront of my mind) during the entire time period while I was deployed in Kabul.

Well you don't need to worry. Biden says it is not going to happen:

"None whatsoever," Biden said. "Zero. What you had is you had entire brigades breaking through the gates of our embassy, six, if I’m not mistaken. The Taliban is not the south — the North Vietnamese army. They’re not — they’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability. There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of an embassy … of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable. "

And thank you for your service!

 

[Member 216]

Well you don't need to worry. Biden says it is not going to happen:



And thank you for your service!

I certainly hated Trump but Biden is proving to be like your aging uncle who stumbles around town with his trousers unzipped, yesterdays lunch on his tie and mumbling to himself. What a sad political system which enables these two to rise to the top. The UK is no better as Boris and Starmer prove.

 

[MarkusL]

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1426182241659416581/

 

[Scepticalscribe]

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1426182241659416581/

I am lost for words.

 

[SuperMatt]

I have been reading lots of coverage and the notes from @Scepticalscribe here. It seems to me that there are two major issues with the official Afghan military. First, they’ve become reliant on the Americans. Second, they don’t seem to have a strong loyalty to the current government, which has a bad reputation for corruption. Seems like they’d rather take their chances with a Taliban government than give up their lives to defend the current leaders.

 

[Herdfan]

I certainly hated Trump but Biden is proving to be like your aging uncle who stumbles around town with his trousers unzipped, yesterdays lunch on his tie and mumbling to himself. What a sad political system which enables these two to rise to the top. The UK is no better as Boris and Starmer prove.

You said it, not me. But here is an example:

Bumbling Biden ‘gets lost’ on way home after ignoring agent & walking on lawn

GAFFE-PRONE Joe Biden appeared to “get lost” when returning to the White House as he ignored his Secret Service agent’s instructions by walking on the lawn. The commander-in-chief was captured walk…

www.the-sun.com

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I have been reading lots of coverage and the notes from @Scepticalscribe here. It seems to me that there are two major issues with the official Afghan military. First, they’ve become reliant on the Americans. Second, they don’t seem to have a strong loyalty to the current government, which has a bad reputation for corruption. Seems like they’d rather take their chances with a Taliban government than give up their lives to defend the current leaders.

I'm also very struck by the fact that - leaving the regular forces (ANSF - Afghan National Security Forces) aside - that the private militias, the private armies - have also (completely) collapsed.

These militias, or armies, were supposedly exceedingly strong, and well equipped, and extremely loyal to their respective "warlords" or "strongmen" - people such as Atta Noor and General Dostum in Mazar-i-Sharif, and Ismail Khan in Herat.

In fact, these forces, these militias, private armies, which were answerable to nobody other than these/their respective strongmen/warlords, and which served as the source of their (the warlords) power - ensuring their military and political independence from any administration based in Kabul, - these regions were in some ways quasi independent fiefdoms at times, an independence preserved by the existence of these private militias, or armies, - failed to fight, or offer resistance, in any way seriously to the threat posed by the Taliban, whereas their very existence had ensured that the writ of Kabul didn't always run in those regions.

And yes, I am also struck by the fact that Ismail Khan surrendered (or was captured) in Herat, while Atta Noor, and Dostum both fled across the border to Uzbekistan.

So, the collapse is not simply that of an unpaid and poorly equipped national security force (and poorly motivated - though some, in fairness, fought desperately hard until they had run out of ammunition, the promised logistical and military and other support from Kabul never arriving), but is also - very strikingly - that of the supposedly well equipped, terrifying (and independent) private armies, or militias, answerable to the regional "strongmen" or "warlords", in areas that were never home to the Taliban, loathed the Taliban, had fought against them and opposed them in the 1990s.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

And a number of (pretty credible) sources are reporting that President Ghani has left the country (to Tajikistan, apparently).

 

[Herdfan]

I am seeing a bird hovering over the Embassy in the near future.

 

[Herdfan]

And a number of (pretty credible) sources are reporting that President Ghani has left the country (to Tajikistan, apparently).

Taliban enter Afghan capital, official says President Ghani has left for Tajikistan

AFGHANISTAN-CONFLICT/ (WRAPUP 10, PIX, TV):WRAPUP 10-Taliban enter Afghan capital, official says President Ghani has left for Tajikistan

news.trust.org

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Taliban enter Afghan capital, official says President Ghani has left for Tajikistan

AFGHANISTAN-CONFLICT/ (WRAPUP 10, PIX, TV):WRAPUP 10-Taliban enter Afghan capital, official says President Ghani has left for Tajikistan

news.trust.org

This also seems to have been confirmed - in a FB post - by Dr Abdullah Abdullah (the former "Chief Executive" - i.e. No 2, who was defeated by Ghani in the 2014 elections) - himself en route to Doha with what remains of credible senior individuals for negotiations over how to deal with whatever transition is supposed to occur with the Taliban.

 

[Eric]

This sums it up pretty well. The bottom line is they don't have the will to fight against the Taliban and as a result are getting swallowed up by them, it's all pretty sad.

 

[Deleted member 215]

It just amazes me that after Vietnam and the Soviet adventure in Afghanistan that we really thought this was going to be different. If there’s one thing America is consistently good at, it’s not learning from history. We were constantly updated about the “progress” of this 20-year occupation but as I said before, the Taliban were never really defeated and they’ve simply been biding their time…and mostly what I remember hearing out of Afghanistan for the last ten years was the occasional Taliban bombing that killed scores of Afghan civilians (and was often targeting a journalist or a government official).

This was an indefinite occupation. It had no possible end other than this. Its "goal" was to go on forever. This is the way "forever war" ends.

 

[Eric]

Found on Reddit

 

[Herdfan]

Found on Reddit

Oops! That didn't age well.

 

[Herdfan]

This is interesting. Have to wonder what they are up to.

Russia says no need to evacuate embassy in Afghanistan - TASS

AFGHANISTAN-CONFLICT/RUSSIA:Russia says no need to evacuate embassy in Afghanistan - TASS

news.trust.org