Biden's weekly Approval Polls

[User.45]

I get sick of polling and pollsters and people who predicate their next tweet (or legislative move) on some public or private poll they just laid eyes on. A poll is a snapshot in time and really we have no clue about the people who have responded to them past the actual answers to the particular questions.

The criticism of polls tends to be about the sample size or the non-random aspect of the polling or the slant or focus of the questions, but we don't see a lot of discussion about the humanity of the people taking the poll. I mean maybe someone had a fabulous day and got a raise in pay at work, or maybe they got fired, or maybe they quit, or maybe they were stuck in a car on I-95 with a cellphone that still worked when the pollster called...

,.. and yeah, what is "the economy" anyway? The supply chain that didn't bring your niece that doll on time, or the sleeper stock you bought bc some guy on the train correctly said to a buddy that it was about to take off, or the fact that your car needs a new alternator and you haven't got even gas money to get to a junkyard..,

But Biden is surely aware that he owns and is owned by "how things are" for the whole time he's in office. And like Bush 43, who did not invent hurricanes but understood that he owned and was owned by Hurricane Katrina, Biden does get it that it doesn't matter if "how things are" happen to lie beyond human intervention.

It would be nice though if people made more of a distinction along those lines.

There are margins of error and if the poll is adequately powered it should not reflect the individual's mood, but it would still be impacted by forces that may transiently impact a large radius of geography, like a large storm. That said I would not be dismissive with polls. Republicans have poll armors because the electorate favors minority rule for them, and Trump's erratic behavior is reflected by a high rate of polling errors even after over adjustment by some pollsters.

As @SuperMatt says these don't necessarily reflect the truth, but perceptions.

My favorite news headline of stock market fan fiction written a couple weeks ago was “Market Recovers From Omicron Concerns”. WTF are they talking about? Nothing substantial happened with omnicrom in the last couple weeks to recover from, and in fact, if the market was in any way tethered to reality it would be doing worse due to omicron, not “recovered” from it several weeks ago.

I started fully ignoring the "economy" polls. Inflated valuation of the stock market may reflect the mood of the capitalist class, but those who aren't in it care more about the food, gas, housing, employment and childcare situation. Economy might mean something else for those who have security with all of these mentioned, but for most, a good economy means positive outlook to be able to afford all of these.

 

[lizkat]

As @SuperMatt says these don't necessarily reflect the truth, but perceptions.

Perceptions are exactly like "the truth" when it comes to politics: snapshot taken from a moving train. It's still about perception that the buck stops at the President's desk. What the buck looks like right now --good, bad or indifferent-- is what the pollsters are always trying to elicit.

But the background scenery is important: the micro and the macro. It's just luck if any given President manages not to collect a 9/11 or a Hurricane Katrina, a global financial crash or pandemic or both... or a vibrant economy that he's basically no more responsible for personally than were all the people sitting home deciding to buy a new car or put $10k into the market in a given quarter. It's also luck how any given poll respondent's view of his own day so far has developed when he takes a pollster's call.

Biden knows --even if people being polled today forget-- that things can change on a dime and so can certainly change between now and November. Perception of that change may net out for anyone as better or worse. The downsides may seem formidable: our supply chains are still a mess, the winter is upon us, and covid keeps throwing a wrench into the works with spikes and uncertainty of federal and local (private and public) responses to changes of incidence and hospitalization rates. But there's always a lot of upside in "it's the economy, stupid" when wages are rising and the labor market is a bit tight, even if inflation has also re-entered the picture.

The President needs to do something about student debt, which is like a giant weight laid down on the hopes and dreams of educated Americans: the capitalization of interest alone is enough to jack up principal to sums that can likely never be paid off, but that further when forgiven, become a tax burden that's also impossible.

And Congress needs to pass the Voting Rights Act. What the high court did to the original VRA and what the Rs have done in some states now is another kind of burden laid down on the American public. We need to know (again) that our right to vote and have our votes count will be respected.

And we need enough luck (I'm giving up on common sense?!) to have the godblasted covid peak and fade away to an annoying flu-like thing by time summer rolls around. Give our medical care and other public-facing service employees a fricken break and "approval ratings" will go up out of renewed appreciation of summer fun.

Three little things. Only one of them requires luck, the others require Dems to grow a spine and kill the filibuster.

 

[hulugu]

There are margins of error and if the poll is adequately powered it should not reflect the individual's mood, but it would still be impacted by forces that may transiently impact a large radius of geography, like a large storm. That said I would not be dismissive with polls. Republicans have poll armors because the electorate favors minority rule for them, and Trump's erratic behavior is reflected by a high rate of polling errors even after over adjustment by some pollsters.

As @SuperMatt says these don't necessarily reflect the truth, but perceptions.


I started fully ignoring the "economy" polls. Inflated valuation of the stock market may reflect the mood of the capitalist class, but those who aren't in it care more about the food, gas, housing, employment and childcare situation. Economy might mean something else for those who have security with all of these mentioned, but for most, a good economy means positive outlook to be able to afford all of these.

Yeah, even the consumer price index is a little screwy these days because it's driven upwards by the sudden increase in the cost of durable goods and energy commodities. This really highlights inflation, but these increases are driven hard by overwhelming demand because of the pandemic.

Overall CPI went up largely driven by a 33 percent change in energy. Remove food and energy and you get a price rise of about 4.9 percent.

We look toward the stock market and the CPI as signals, but we can't deal with the noise behind those signals and so we often misread them.

In short, yes, prices are rising, but a big push is overheated demand, and secondary effects from the pandemic that can shake out within the next few months.

And, they're all things that a sudden shift to the Republicans won't help. The GQP can't do shit to lower the price of a Toyota shipped from Japan, for example.

 

[SuperMatt]

We look toward the stock market and the CPI as signals, but we can't deal with the noise behind those signals and so we often misread them.

In short, yes, prices are rising, but a big push is overheated demand, and secondary effects from the pandemic that can shake out within the next few months.

One need only look to the streets to know why gas prices shot up. We went from empty streets reminiscent of “The Last Man on Earth” back to pre-pandemic traffic just a short time ago.

Prices for other goods went way up because people actually saved up a lot of money during the pandemic. It turns out that we spend a lot of money eating out, going shopping, etc. That pent-up demand is resulting in higher prices.

I do not know what will happen with Omicron. If it turns out to have a far lower hospitalization and fatality rate, it could really change the landscape. If that happens, we might go back to something similar to pre-pandemic life soon. Prices should stabilize at that point, people might be able to relax a bit, and approval of America’s leaders will likely go up.

 

[hulugu]

One need only look to the streets to know why gas prices shot up. We went from empty streets reminiscent of “The Last Man on Earth” back to pre-pandemic traffic just a short time ago.

Prices for other goods went way up because people actually saved up a lot of money during the pandemic. It turns out that we spend a lot of money eating out, going shopping, etc. That pent-up demand is resulting in higher prices.

I do not know what will happen with Omicron. If it turns out to have a far lower hospitalization and fatality rate, it could really change the landscape. If that happens, we might go back to something similar to pre-pandemic life soon. Prices should stabilize at that point, people might be able to relax a bit, and approval of America’s leaders will likely go up.

Yep. I think Biden's popularity is declining partially because it always does—every president over the last 40 years has roughly the same arch, except for Bush II who had a huge post-911 bump before his declined again—and because of COVID.

He really can't do much about COVID either. He's hamstrung by Trump's judges, by a politically-minded refusal to get vaccinated, and by idiot state governors. There's only so many tools in his arsenal. But, he's been making the right moves regardless, even buying up a huge stock of the new COVID-19 pill.

He's pushing harder to lower gas and meat prices, and the Fed is working to clamp down on inflation. Moreover, the so-called "great resignation" is actually a move by people for better working conditions, and better pay. That will have ancillary and positive effects once it sorts out. I'd say in 6 months, we're going to be at a summer with a rising economic outlet, declining cases—even if it's just the summer lull. That will help Biden for the fall.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Yep. I think Biden's popularity is declining partially because it always does—every president over the last 40 years has roughly the same arch, except for Bush II who had a huge post-911 bump before his declined again—and because of COVID.

He really can't do much about COVID either. He's hamstrung by Trump's judges, by a politically-minded refusal to get vaccinated, and by idiot state governors. There's only so many tools in his arsenal. But, he's been making the right moves regardless, even buying up a huge stock of the new COVID-19 pill.

He's pushing harder to lower gas and meat prices, and the Fed is working to clamp down on inflation. Moreover, the so-called "great resignation" is actually a move by people for better working conditions, and better pay. That will have ancillary and positive effects once it sorts out. I'd say in 6 months, we're going to be at a summer with a rising economic outlet, declining cases—even if it's just the summer lull. That will help Biden for the fall.

Was listening to a commentary on Biden and cattle ranchers vs the near monopoly meat packers. Basically the meat packers are using covid as an excuse to raise prices while the ranchers aren’t receiving any increase in price for their meat. It’s all profit gouging. Also they’ve worked something out where they can put a “USA” label on the meat when it actually comes from Central America or Australia. Basically it was packaged in the US but the meat didn’t originate in the US. So if you think you are supporting the US in that meat purchase you really aren’t. Ranchers are like auto workers now, take the scraps they offer you or they’ll just outsource where they get their meat from (more).

These are things as a big city liberal that I’m not usually aware of.

 

[Herdfan]

Was listening to a commentary on Biden and cattle ranchers vs the near monopoly meat packers. Basically the meat packers are using covid as an excuse to raise prices while the ranchers aren’t receiving any increase in price for their meat. It’s all profit gouging.

The ranchers may have the last laugh:

Unhappy with prices, ranchers look to build own meat plants

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Like other ranchers across the country, Rusty Kemp for years grumbled about rock-bottom prices paid for the cattle he raised in central Nebraska, even as the cost of beef at grocery stores kept climbing.

apnews.com

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

The ranchers may have the last laugh:

Unhappy with prices, ranchers look to build own meat plants

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Like other ranchers across the country, Rusty Kemp for years grumbled about rock-bottom prices paid for the cattle he raised in central Nebraska, even as the cost of beef at grocery stores kept climbing.

apnews.com

Interesting. I like this bit - "However, they say they will have important advantages, including more modern equipment and, they hope, less employee turnover thanks to slightly higher pay of more than $50,000 annually plus benefits along with more favorable work schedules. "

I think a lot of new businesses are started by people who never worked at the lower levels or quickly forgot what that's like. The world would be a lot better place if taking care of employees was a big focus at the jump. This also means its a lot less likely your tax dollars will have to compensate for their employment shortfalls.

 

[Yoused]

“You can't love your country only when you win”​

 

[Herdfan]

More bad news for the Biden Administration?

Americans give President Joe Biden a negative 33 - 53 percent job approval rating, while 13 percent did not offer an opinion. In November 2021, Americans gave Biden a negative 36 - 53 percent job approval rating with 10 percent not offering an opinion.

Political Instability Not U.S. Adversaries, Seen As Bigger Threat, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Nearly 6 In 10 Think Nation's Democracy Is In Danger Of Collapse | Quinnipiac University Poll

"A fear of the enemy within, not a foreign threat, punctuates a grim assessment by Americans of a democracy in peril and a future of deepening political divisions," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

poll.qu.edu

He is flirting with Trump territory.

 

[Herdfan]

Analysis: The White House just put out a baffling polling memo

The White House wants to get something straight: President Joe Biden is unpopular. But he's not that unpopular.

www.cnn.com

 

[sgtaylor5]

https://www.economist.com/president-joe-biden-polls?fsrc=core-app-economist

I subscribe to the Checks and Balances newsletter from The Economist ( until I have to start paying for it and then I won't. ) This article was in this week's copy.

Don't really know if we could have had a better choice after the South Carolina primary; I liked Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but with the right leaning of the US increasing, neither of them would have stood a chance, either.

 

[Yoused]

… with the right leaning of the US increasing …

That much is debatable. Proper presentation of progressive ideals might prove that wrong, because most Americans tend to gravitate toward progressivism when it is well-presented. Of course, the White-Wing tends to make more noise, and industry and finance are good at amplifying the White-Wing because progressivism leans anti-profitability.

 

[sgtaylor5]

That much is debatable. Proper presentation of progressive ideals might prove that wrong, because most Americans tend to gravitate toward progressivism when it is well-presented. Of course, the White-Wing tends to make more noise, and industry and finance are good at amplifying the White-Wing because progressivism leans anti-profitability.

By "right-leaning", I meant that even American progressive thinking is more conservative than in Europe, for instance. EDIT: Also, the political power of the far right is increasing to the point that no one wants to fight them en masse.

I firmly believe that in the urban areas of the country progressive thought would be very appealing, something that the Democrats have lost sight of. Someone needs to fight for the working population who are not of the rich. That fight used to be owned by the unions, before they were corrupted by money and crushed by the government and the largest of big businesses.

The rural areas where I have lived wouldn't even want to think of hearing progressive thought: "Work for yourself, without any outside help", they'd think. Many get farm subsidies and CRP (Conservation Reserve Program) money, though.

 

[Herdfan]

Biden approval hits new low at one-year mark: AP-NORC poll

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden ends his first year in the White House with a clear majority of Americans for the first time disapproving of his handling of the presidency in the face of an unrelenting pandemic and roaring inflation, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC...

apnews.com

 

[User.168]

.

 

[Herdfan]

So he lost around 21 from the Dems and 14 from the Repubs. Cool graph. This should be a concern for mentally stable Americans, because they could soon be facing being ruled by the benevolent emperor Trump and the Trump Dynasty.

View attachment 11169

Is the gray line Independents or an average of the two parties?

The loss of independents should scare the Dems more than anything since they are the ones that pushed him over the top.

 

[User.168]

.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

The loss of independents should scare the Dems more than anything since they are the ones that pushed him over the top.

What do you think the reason is for loss of independents? Biden and the Democrats have largely accomplished nothing. But from your posts (and corporate media talking points) it seems you think Biden is losing support from moderates and independents because they might eventually accomplish something and won't entertain the possibility that the reason for the low ratings is because of the lack of accomplishments.

To swing things to MAGA and a probably now dead belief in small government. Republicans are doing a pretty good job making sure the government is doing as little as possible and yet things aren't going great for a lot of people. So I don't know how you square that with the party of small government. Things will somehow improve if the government is doing even less than the minimum they are doing now? And this is probably another example of how Trump has completely flipped Republican values, but it seems the MAGA people want the government up people's asses as much as possible to enforce their worldview and "I'm not going to do jack shit" doesn't sound like a good rally message. This all sounds like big government to me.

 

[Herdfan]

What do you think the reason is for loss of independents? Biden and the Democrats have largely accomplished nothing.

I think Biden won, not because he was great, but because he didn't tweet mean things. Basically he wasn't Trump and the independents swung to him.

Or maybe they expected him to do what he said he would do and he hasn't. Certainly he said he would shut COVID down and he hasn't. Inflation is killing working class families at the grocery or Walmart and gas prices are up. Just a guess.