California recall election now has 70 people on the ballot

[Herdfan]

Support for a recall is growing. But even if it fails, things don't look good for him in '22.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Eric]

Support for a recall is growing. But even if it fails, things don't look good for him in '22.

MSN

www.msn.com

It's like a never ending election season here with all the ads, I don't care what side one is on it gets really old.

 

[SuperMatt]

Considering the governor’s term is only 4 years, the idea of a recall election is kind of silly to me. What an utter waste of time and money. Just wait for the term to be over and elect somebody else. If there’s something like a serious crime committed, something like an impeachment would be a solution for kicking somebody out early.

 

[Herdfan]

Almost to 50/50 based on likely voters. Those who are for the recall are probably more motivated to vote that those who are not.

Likely California voters now almost evenly split on Newsom recall, poll finds

The findings of the new poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the L.A. Times dispel the notion that California's solid Democratic voter majority will provide an impenetrable shield for Newsom.

www.latimes.com

 

[Herdfan]

Well, he did do the right thing, but not sure it was for the right reason or because he already got busted:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/28/newsom-kids-maskless-camp/

If the photo of his kid maskless had not surfaced, would he have done anything? Given his history and me being a bit cynical when it comes to politicians, I am going to say no he would not have.

 

[Eric]

Well, he did do the right thing, but not sure it was for the right reason or because he already got busted:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/28/newsom-kids-maskless-camp/

If the photo of his kid maskless had not surfaced, would he have done anything? Given his history and me being a bit cynical when it comes to politicians, I am going to say no he would not have.

No way to know so that's pure speculation but I agree it was the right thing to do. This goes beyond politics, there is no way to ensure parents are vaccinated and many of these people couldn't give a rats ass who they infect, even if it's children. I would never trust people in class without a policy. If there's one mistake Newsom made it was believing other people would do the right thing.

 

[Herdfan]

Getting worse for Newsom:

Shock poll shows Gavin Newsom losing recall vote by double digits

The poll's other shocking finding is a new leader on Newsom's replacement.

www.sfgate.com

That article also links this one: https://www.sfgate.com/gavin-newsom...-Newsom-Larry-Elder-mask-mandate-16360329.php

The interesting part is this sentence:

"The simpler explanation is that even if Newsom is not the one ordering the mandates, he's the one most commonly associated with new restrictions and mandates as the face of the state's pandemic response."

So it seems he is getting blamed even though he isn't the one issuing the orders.

 

[SuperMatt]

Getting worse for Newsom:

Shock poll shows Gavin Newsom losing recall vote by double digits

The poll's other shocking finding is a new leader on Newsom's replacement.

www.sfgate.com

That article also links this one: https://www.sfgate.com/gavin-newsom...-Newsom-Larry-Elder-mask-mandate-16360329.php

The interesting part is this sentence:



So it seems he is getting blamed even though he isn't the one issuing the orders.

Getting a new governor isn’t going to stop COVID. Getting a vaccine will. People waste so much time and money on complete and utter nonsense. Now excuse me while I waste my time watching TV and posting on internet message boards...

 

[Eric]

I still don't fully understand the replacement part. I know if 50% or more vote to remove him that he's out, does that automatically mean whoever gets the most votes takes over? I believe that's the case but not 100% certain.

It's definitely tightening and at this point is within the margin of error, I still think it's going to be a hard sell for the entire state but rural areas are definitely amped to remove him (what's new there?) but we have a strong mail in and free election system here, Dems just need to turn out.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Getting worse for Newsom:

Shock poll shows Gavin Newsom losing recall vote by double digits

The poll's other shocking finding is a new leader on Newsom's replacement.

www.sfgate.com

That article also links this one: https://www.sfgate.com/gavin-newsom...-Newsom-Larry-Elder-mask-mandate-16360329.php

The interesting part is this sentence:



So it seems he is getting blamed even though he isn't the one issuing the orders.

I’ll just say there is a certain well known group of voters who never let facts get in the way of their beliefs and perceptions. There’s a little of that in all voting groups but this group really takes things to new heights.

 

[Herdfan]

I still don't fully understand the replacement part. I know if 50% or more vote to remove him that he's out, does that automatically mean whoever gets the most votes takes over? I believe that's the case but not 100% certain.

That is correct. So out of the 70 or so, the one with the largest plurality becomes Governor.

I’ll just say there is a certain well known group of voters who never let facts get in the way of their beliefs and perceptions. There’s a little of that in all voting groups but this group really takes things to new heights.

I get why you think that, but this poll breaks down voting blocks and it has some interesting data.

Republicans support recall by an 8:1 margin - No big surprise here.

Democrats oppose by a smaller 3:1 margin - This is surprising. Would have thought it would have been close to the same as the Republican numbers, only in reverse. But what it means is that a full 25% of Dems want him gone as well.

Independents support recalling the Governor by 5:3 - This one is the dagger.

So this recall is not just because a very small minority of Republicans is throwing a hissy fit over masks and lockdowns. Almost 20% of Democrats say his attending the party are the reason they want him removed and another 29% hit his overall handling of COVID.

SurveyUSA Election Poll #26046

www.surveyusa.com

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

That is correct. So out of the 70 or so, the one with the largest plurality becomes Governor.



I get why you think that, but this poll breaks down voting blocks and it has some interesting data.

Republicans support recall by an 8:1 margin - No big surprise here.

Democrats oppose by a smaller 3:1 margin - This is surprising. Would have thought it would have been close to the same as the Republican numbers, only in reverse. But what it means is that a full 25% of Dems want him gone as well.

Independents support recalling the Governor by 5:3 - This one is the dagger.

So this recall is not just because a very small minority of Republicans is throwing a hissy fit over masks and lockdowns. Almost 20% of Democrats say his attending the party are the reason they want him removed and another 29% hit his overall handling of COVID.

SurveyUSA Election Poll #26046

www.surveyusa.com

I think it was stupid to put Covid in the spotlight to begin with. We have high taxes, failing infrastructure, and a homeless/affordable housing/housing shortage crisis. These issues predate him being in office but before Covid and mother nature blasting us with drought and fires all I heard him yammering on about was how we need to make things better for immigrants. There are plenty of reasons outside covid to consider a recall, but are Republicans offering any solutions or are they just complaining?

 

[SuperMatt]

Should we have national recall elections? I don’t think we should - you’d have to either make the number of signatures for one so high that it would never happen, or else you’d have to deal with every single president for the rest of time facing a recall election.

The term isn’t that long. There is a way to impeach if they are truly criminal. Would I have voted to recall Trump given the chance? Yes. But I still oppose the idea of a recall election for 4-year terms or shorter. As for Senators.... maybe we should allow it since they can stay in office a while.

 

[Eric]

I think it was stupid to put Covid in the spotlight to begin with. We have high taxes, failing infrastructure, and a homeless/affordable housing/housing shortage crisis. These issues predate him being in office but before Covid and mother nature blasting us with drought and fires all I heard him yammering on about was how we need to make things better for immigrants. There are plenty of reasons outside covid to consider a recall, but are Republicans offering any solutions or are they just complaining?

To be fair Caitlyn offered to put the homeless in empty fields Seriously, their only solutions are to hack everything, standard Republican trope. I think it would take another Schwarzenegger or Reagan to actually win over the hearts and minds of people. This crop is nowhere near that.

 

[Deleted member 215]

I think it was stupid to put Covid in the spotlight to begin with. We have high taxes, failing infrastructure, and a homeless/affordable housing/housing shortage crisis. These issues predate him being in office but before Covid and mother nature blasting us with drought and fires all I heard him yammering on about was how we need to make things better for immigrants. There are plenty of reasons outside covid to consider a recall, but are Republicans offering any solutions or are they just complaining?

That's my issue (with politics in general). What are the actual solutions, especially to an issue like homelessness? I hear Republicans constantly point out that Democrat-run cities and states are plagued by homelessness, but when I ask them what Republican solutions would actually solve homelessness, I either get crickets or I get the same half-hearted solutions put forth by Democrats that aren't working and have never worked. Here in the Bay, everyone always says "build more affordable housing!" then when the decision is made to build housing in their city or neighborhood they cry foul and say "not in my backyard!" So...round and round we go...

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

That's my issue (with politics in general). What are the actual solutions, especially to an issue like homelessness? I hear Republicans constantly point out that Democrat-run cities and states are plagued by homelessness, but when I ask them what Republican solutions would actually solve homelessness, I either get crickets or I get the same half-hearted solutions put forth by Democrats that aren't working and have never worked. Here in the Bay, everyone always says "build more affordable housing!" then when the decision is made to build housing in their city or neighborhood they cry foul and say "not in my backyard!" So...round and round we go...

Republicans like to frequently trumpet that when they are in control of a city or state its some kind of all problems solved utopia, yet most red states consistently rank towards the bottom of all quality of life metrics. It’s been that way for so long that I believe the people who live there just accept it as normal.

 

[SuperMatt]

That's my issue (with politics in general). What are the actual solutions, especially to an issue like homelessness? I hear Republicans constantly point out that Democrat-run cities and states are plagued by homelessness, but when I ask them what Republican solutions would actually solve homelessness, I either get crickets or I get the same half-hearted solutions put forth by Democrats that aren't working and have never worked. Here in the Bay, everyone always says "build more affordable housing!" then when the decision is made to build housing in their city or neighborhood they cry foul and say "not in my backyard!" So...round and round we go...

Solving the “illegal” immigration crisis is as easy as making a simple, reproducible path to citizenship. It’s just that there are so many xenophobic voters that no politician wants to do it. Funny thing: people who worship Ronald Reagan conveniently forget that he gave amnesty to millions of undocumented immigrants. We could decide to make guest worker programs legal. We could increase the number of refugees we take in. We could increase the amount of citizens that can be naturalized in a year. But instead we ignore the problem and just call all the people that come here and work and improve the economy “illegal”... They are as “illegal” as giving somebody a glass of water. Unjust and immoral laws should be protested and, when necessary, disobeyed.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Solving the “illegal” immigration crisis is as easy as making a simple, reproducible path to citizenship. It’s just that there are so many xenophobic voters that no politician wants to do it. Funny thing: people who worship Ronald Reagan conveniently forget that he gave amnesty to millions of undocumented immigrants. We could decide to make guest worker programs legal. We could increase the number of refugees we take in. We could increase the amount of citizens that can be naturalized in a year. But instead we ignore the problem and just call all the people that come here and work and improve the economy “illegal”... They are as “illegal” as giving somebody a glass of water. Unjust and immoral laws should be protested and, when necessary, disobeyed.

First let me say I don’t care if immigrants are white, brown, black, yellow, or purple, but one of the things we have working against us in CA is no matter how many people leave the state because of issues, there’s a never ending long line of immigrants willing to take their place, legal or otherwise. Many in the tech industry see all the temporary work visas is a big problem, keeping wages down and cost of living high. But just like when somebody is critical of the Israeli government they get “anti-semite!” hurled at them, when you get into real issues associated with large scale immigration you get “xenophobe!” hurled at you. So while some states think kicking out immigrants is the solution, others think bringing more in is the solution. Both are deflections to the actual bigger issues.

 

[SuperMatt]

First let me say I don’t care if immigrants are white, brown, black, yellow, or purple, but one of the things we have working against us in CA is no matter how many people leave the state because of issues, there’s a never ending long line of immigrants willing to take their place, legal or otherwise. Many in the tech industry see all the temporary work visas is a big problem, keeping wages down and cost of living high. But just like when somebody is critical of the Israeli government they get “anti-semite!” hurled at them, when you get into real issues associated with large scale immigration you get “xenophobe!” hurled at you. So while some states think kicking out immigrants is the solution, others think bringing more in is the solution. Both are deflections to the actual bigger issues.

Come on. H-1B visas are not the problem we’re discussing, because people on those visas are LEGAL. So the tech workers complaining are complaining about LEGAL immigrants. And let’s face it: they are LEGAL because it benefits the tech giants, who pay huge checks to politicians… and the higher-wage workers would NOT come here illegally and try to sneak into Google to write code.

Meanwhile, business owners who benefit from a low-skill labor force that is ILLEGAL (they cannot complain about their pay or they get deported!) want to keep 11 million illegal workers exactly where they are: under their boot.

Our government chooses the legality of the immigrants because it benefits the companies, not the immigrants, nor the government nor the people - who miss out on the higher productivity that comes from people who are proud citizens instead of fearful of deportation.

 

[lizkat]

Solving the “illegal” immigration crisis is as easy as making a simple, reproducible path to citizenship. It’s just that there are so many xenophobic voters that no politician wants to do it. Funny thing: people who worship Ronald Reagan conveniently forget that he gave amnesty to millions of undocumented immigrants. We could decide to make guest worker programs legal. We could increase the number of refugees we take in. We could increase the amount of citizens that can be naturalized in a year. But instead we ignore the problem and just call all the people that come here and work and improve the economy “illegal”... They are as “illegal” as giving somebody a glass of water. Unjust and immoral laws should be protested and, when necessary, disobeyed.

It's not just xenophobia that makes congress drag its heels on true immigration reform. There are still employers in several sectors of the economy who may prefer the wink and nod approach to cheap labor (and the lack of encumbrances like having to give notice or state cause to fire someone).

All those perceived bennies of hiring undocumented workers vanish when the immigrant has papers and recourse to law enforcement.

The E-verify system (an online federal system that allows enrolled employers to check on eligibility of prospective employees to work in the USA) is still optional in many cases -- mandated for federal contractors, required also in some states or as a result of specific legal rulings where the issue of worker eligibility has been adjudicated.

That system is controversial and its usage basically a hot mess, not least for some wink-and-nod exceptions that may be built into the laws passed by some states. Some states have more stringent laws than others, some have more exceptions than others, some states have laws for state employment that the state legislature declined to apply to private employers, some states forbid other than federally mandated applications, etc.

And a caveat about the reference below: more court cases have kept turning up, so the ref below is a snapshot in time (2016).

Map of States with E-Verify Laws

A map of states that have taken action against the hiring of illegal aliens by requiring some (or all) businesses to use E-Verify. States in red or orange have taken no steps to curb the hiring of illegal workers who wish to compete for jobs with American workers. States with all other colors...

www.numbersusa.com

Bottom line though, there are powerful if sotto voce influencers on the slow-go rate Congress is dealing with this issue.

Ordinary Americans do carp about immigrants taking their jobs. But employers still find trouble getting eligible American workers to do some notoriously crappy jobs (catching chickens and stuffing them into transport to slaughter, for instance: the dropout rate is huge for those who've never done it and decide to give it a go).

We still hear the occasional "oops" story about some celebrity or aspiring politician who has hired an undocumented nanny or other household worker. And Tyson and other poultry or meat processors have sometimes run afoul of the law thru their "gee I didn't know" approach to hiring undocumented labor with a cheap pricetag on it. Tyson allegedly ran that gig for years before finally being caught up in legal difficulties over it.

Tyson Foods Indicted in Plan To Smuggle Illegal Workers (Published 2001)

Tyson Foods Inc, nation's largest meat producer and processor, is indicted with six employees on charges that it conspired to smuggle illegal immigrants across Mexican border to work in more than dozen of its poultry processing plants; 36-count indictment also accuses Tyson of helping illegal...

www.nytimes.com

Tyson is on probation after pleading guilty in 1997 to making illegal gifts to Mike Espy, the former agriculture secretary. The government said that if Tyson was found guilty of conspiring to recruit illegal aliens, it could face more sanctions in the Espy case.

Barry Levine, a lawyer for Tyson, said yesterday that it would demonstrate in court that executives in Springdale had no knowledge of the recruiting of illegal immigrants.

''No one in the corporate offices knew of this,'' Mr. Levine said in a telephone interview.

The government said that a 30-month investigation, led by the Immigration and Naturalization Service, found that about 15 Tyson plants in 9 states
were involved in a conspiracy from about 1994 to 2001.

The indictment said that, to meet production and profit goals, Tyson officials would contact local smugglers near its plants to get more workers.

The recruiters would contact with smugglers in Mexico, who would round up people willing to work for Tyson, the indictment said. Tyson officials would then arrange to meet the workers along the border, the government said, and transport them to meat processing plants.

Tyson officials have long argued that they do not traffic in illegal workers. In a 1996 news release, the company said: ''The consequences of knowingly hiring illegal workers are quite simply too high for us to hire people without proper documentation.'' The company said almost all immigrant laborers come to the company as a result of word-of-mouth from friends and families, not recruiters.

In the indictment, the government said that at a 1998 meeting at the company's headquarters in Springdale, a human services manager told human resources officials, ''Never, ever, admit hiring illegals.''

The government said it found documents that showed payments from Tyson to smugglers, and indications that the company used temporary employment agencies to cover up actions. Tyson officials said yesterday that they recently reviewed company practices and dismissed workers without proper documentation.

Other big meat processors have long denied that they knowingly recruit or hire illegal workers. And many companies say they are in a bind because if they press workers on their documents they are accused of harassing immigrants and accused of civil rights violations.

''We would like to hire legal workers, but it's very difficult,'' said Janet Riley, a spokeswoman for the American Meat Institute, which represents some of the largest meat processors. ''It's difficult to get verification and there could be civil rights issues.''

Some labor organizations, though, have been pressing the government to stop taking action against undocumented workers and instead go after companies for recruiting and hiring them at low wages for work in hazardous jobs.

''We have been saying for a long time that they induce workers to come here from Mexico and Central America with false promises,'' said Greg Denier, a spokesman for the United Food and Commercial Workers, which represents meat packing and retail food workers. ''Some are told they'll be given papers. This is a cross-border trade in human flesh.''

Mr. Denier added that his union would like to legalize the status of many of the undocumented workers already in the United States and to improve working conditions at meat processing plants, where injuries often occur and where turnover rates are high.

Closest we got to a reasonable reform effort so far was during Bush 43 administration. He was up for it and so at that time were quite a few Republican congressmen in both chambers. Nowadays it seems to have devolved again to a shouting match about "stolen jobs!" or "racists!" which is unfortunate for everyone.