Havana syndrome

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So...Havana syndrome. The mystery illness affecting diplomats, CIA agents, and other American operatives in foreign countries, so named because it was first observed in diplomats in Havana.

At first, it was alleged that these incidents were only occurring in "hostile" countries like Cuba, China, and Russia. But now, there are reports out of Vienna, and even D.C. and the surrounding suburbs. But what the cases all have in common is that the sufferers are government employees.


The prevailing theory is that the syndrome is caused by some kind of microwave weapon, potentially developed by Russia. Skeptics are saying it's psychosomatic and a result of mass hysteria.

What is your theory on what is causing it, who is behind it, and why? Or do you think it's all complete BS (and why)?
 

Scepticalscribe

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So...Havana syndrome. The mystery illness affecting diplomats, CIA agents, and other American operatives in foreign countries, so named because it was first observed in diplomats in Havana.

At first, it was alleged that these incidents were only occurring in "hostile" countries like Cuba, China, and Russia. But now, there are reports out of Vienna, and even D.C. and the surrounding suburbs. But what the cases all have in common is that the sufferers are government employees.


The prevailing theory is that the syndrome is caused by some kind of microwave weapon, potentially developed by Russia. Skeptics are saying it's psychosomatic and a result of mass hysteria.

What is your theory on what is causing it, who is behind it, and why? Or do you think it's all complete BS (and why)?

Hmmm.

I wonder.

Microwaves?

My first comment or observation would be to ask whether any diplomats from any other country, (not just western), or organisation (EU, for example) have suffered anything similar.

And my second would be to examine exactly how the US differs in how it chooses to deploy diplomats from how other countries do this.

Now, I've been to a number of different US embassies, in an official capacity. And, I have also had reason to visit (again, officially) embassies from other countries - (Brits, Germans, Chinese, Russians, South Korean, Dutch, Irish, EUDEL - EU Delegation - i.e. EU embassies, to mention but a few - etc) in a number of different countries.

And, what has struck me (yes, yes, yes, I know that the US is a target) is how - irrespective of whether the US embassy in question is situated in a peaceful, advanced, country, or a developing country, or in an absolute basket case of a disintegrating, dysfunctional state, all US embassies look much the same; they are like small cities, the space - both psychological and physical, that they occupy is extraordinarily extensive - the security is intense, visible, and yes, extraordinary - and they are complete mini-fortresses. And they are bristling with weapons, equipment, protection and divinities only know what else.

Now, one may answer by saying that the US is a target - and yes, it is - but, with the striking exception of countries such as Afghanistan (and Somalia, for that matter), - where it was necessary for excellent and unfortunately well-known security reasons - I have never stayed or had to live in a guarded and gated compound when I served abroad, either when observing elections or when I worked with the EU.

Usually, we - that is, Europeans, - stayed in hotels, or rented an apartment if in a country (and this is not confined to western Europe, I've known colleagues who rented flats or apartments in countries such as Belarus, or Kyrgyzstan, or Kenya, or Russia, or Georgia, or Ukraine, when deployed for months or years in a place, in other words, places that no stretch of the imagination could class as fully functioning democracies).

In general, for European diplomats, when abroad (and this includes Russia), unless you are the Ambassador, or otherwise designated as Head of Mission, you don't usually live in the embassy building.

However, in my experience, an extraordinary number of Americans seem to live in their vast, massive, secured and extremely well fortified embassy compounds - which invariably resemble a small independent city state - irrespective of where the embassy is, or what country plays host to the Embassy; I'm not entirely sure that these are completely healthy environments.

Now, naturally enough, I would expect such "games" to be played in Moscow, but would be somewhat skeptical about such tales emanating from somewhere such as Vienna; first off, I'd look closer to home, - i.e. the embassy precincts, US equipment and living conditions - and and ask myself what it is (not necessarily inspired by "malign foreign elements") that may be causing this.
 
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Pumbaa

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Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if it turns out to be a side effect of some fancy classified anti-surveillance system installed by the US.

Sure would make sense to install such a system in “hostile” locations first before expanding it to the remaining locations as the supply gets better, would it not? And Havana would surely be a good testing ground due to the geographical proximity.

Yeah, I made everything up on the spot here, but that doesn’t make it any less likely! 😜
 

AG_PhamD

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Looks like this story has once again resurrected itself in the mainstream media.

60 Minutes put together what appears to be a compelling documentary on the surface but if you actually look at all the evidence not-supporting this syndrome (ie multiple brain imagining studies by the NIH, the fact the originally recorded “weapon” in Cuba turned out to be insects, some people involved financial motives, and just some critical thinking, it’s far less compelling.

I don’t want to sound like I am defending Russia, certainly they are a deplorable regime with a long history of unethical warfare and covert activity, but I don’t see an entirely clear motive on why they would use such a weapon versus other means. I am not a by no means an expert in physics but it seems difficult to have a microwave weapon that would be able to penetrate long distances, walls, while not burning things (including skin) and while also not being detected by US electronic surveillance in areas that most certainly would have it (ie White House west wing).

It seems to me the more logical explanation is a psychosomatic / psychosocial phenomenon. This is not atypical in high stress situations in isolated social groups. That’s not to say these people aren’t suffering real symptoms or are not worthy of treatment- it’s more likely a false association of symptoms commonly caused by many possible mundane conditions.

That’s the same finding of the medical and intelligence communities.

I think we need to be careful about feeding unsupported anti-Russia hysteria. There’s plenty of reasons to oppose Putin’s Regime and Russia without stirring up this narrative.
 

GermanSuplex

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The modern far-right’s incessant conspiratorial garbage is causing me to automatically assume more reasonable explanations. About everything, including this.

Could be the water or bugs.
 

dada_dave

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The modern far-right’s incessant conspiratorial garbage is causing me to automatically assume more reasonable explanations. About everything, including this.

Could be the water or bugs.
Ehh it’s probably the Russians. Psychosis doesn’t cover the physical symptoms (people are suffering traumatic brain injuries, some more severe than others) and despite the statement above by AG_PhamD neither the entire medical profession nor all the intelligence agencies came to the conclusion of dismissing these incidents as merely psychosis. In fact a number from said groups are distancing themselves from that explanation as it appears extremely unlikely now (eg especially since they’ve found two reported cases from before the news broke originally making mass psychosis incredibly unlikely). Given almost all the targets are related to Russian issues, Russian agents who all belong to a particular kill team have on occasion been identified by the targets as having cased them, the Russians have even boasted at their ability to effectively cripple American intelligence and diplomatic agents without firing a shot, that medical experts have concluded that such weapons are possible, that they wouldn’t necessarily leave evidence in scans but would temporarily leave biomarkers in blood, that such biomarkers have been found in an attack victim who luckily had a baseline done beforehand, that we know the Soviets and the Russians had active programs in such acoustic and microwave weapons, etc … the evidence is pretty substantial.

It’s not just 60 minutes. It was a project worked on by Der Spiegel and the Insider/Bellingcat. It’s not definitive proof, but it makes a hell of a lot more sense than any other explanation given by a long margin.

 
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AG_PhamD

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Ehh it’s probably the Russians. Psychosis doesn’t cover the physical symptoms (people are suffering traumatic brain injuries, some more severe than others) and despite the statement above by AG_PhamD neither the entire medical profession nor all the intelligence agencies came to the conclusion of dismissing these incidents as merely psychosis. In fact a number from said groups are distancing themselves from that explanation as it appears extremely unlikely now (eg especially since they’ve found two reported cases from before the news broke originally making mass psychosis incredibly unlikely). Given almost all the targets are related to Russian issues, Russian agents who all belong to a particular kill team have on occasion been identified by the targets as having cased them, the Russians have even boasted at their ability to effectively cripple American intelligence and diplomatic agents without firing a shot, that medical experts have concluded that such weapons are possible, that they wouldn’t necessarily leave evidence in scans but would temporarily leave biomarkers in blood, that such biomarkers have been found in an attack victim who luckily had a baseline done beforehand, that we know the Soviets and the Russians had active programs in such acoustic and microwave weapons, etc … the evidence is pretty substantial.

It’s not just 60 minutes. It was a project worked on by Der Spiegel and the Insider/Bellingcat. It’s not definitive proof, but it makes a hell of a lot more sense than any other explanation given by a long margin.


Havana syndrome as neurological by no means widely accepted by the medical. The most evidence they have, in terms of a clinical trial, is an early study of MRIs looking at 48 participants with the alleged symptoms (which vary widely person to person) and controls. Diagnostic imaging tends to have a problem where if you look for something, you will find it, I’m not sure how the controls were chosen- if they were chosen based on having perfect neurological imagining rather than random individuals of similar demographics, they would be a problem. There have been larger, subsequent studies concluding no connection.

When you consider the medical ramifications along with the physics of how this could be pulled off undetected and without other physical damage to the “victim” or environment, it’s difficult to imagine how this would be possible.

Within the intelligence agency, they have officially concluded no connection. That’s not to say there are not people within the agency who disagree.

I have not read any reports of anyone suffering psychosis- and to be clear I never said anything about “psychosis”. Psychosis is a disconnection from reality involving hallucinations and/or delusions. No one is suggesting these peoples symptoms can’t be real, the question is the cause. What I was suggesting was essentially mass hysteria.

Intelligence agents particularly likely worry constantly and very deeply about being targeted by enemies. It’s not surprising they would be susceptible to believing ailments are being caused by adversaries, especially if others believe this to be the case. It’s also not surprising to see how one could also associate an unrecognized sound as having other effects.

Russia could certainly use a false belief, if indeed the case, to their advantage. The question is why aren’t they using such a weapon on the top brass? Why not in war? Let’s say they are scrambling brains, how does that help them? The Russian targets are going to be pursued regardless and it’s far from a clear message like murder. If it’s supposed to be covert harm, then they don’t want to signal they are causing it. So to what end are they doing this?

If you consider how tightly bound the mind and body are, like in the case of the placebo and nocebo effects, psychogenic illness is not a surprising phenomenon. In fact, it should almost be expected given how we operate. One of the hardest types of nausea to treat in chemo patients is anticipatory nausea, where patients get violently ill just walking into the infusion clinic. A bunch of research into “long COVID” in young healthy people with mild cases suggests it’s more often than not psychosomatic, which shouldn’t be that surprising- not to say infections can’t cause tremendous lasting damage, it’s just unlikely in such a demographic. About 10 years ago there was a similar phenomenon with the flu vaccine in isolated groups of teenage girls. Fibromyalgia is pretty much accepted as the physical manifestation of depression.

We also don’t know that all of the suspected cases are tied to Russia- only the highly selective information 60 minutes conveyed unfortunately with no information about the limitations of their knowledge or info that counters their claims. Let’s not forget this alleged condition originated in Havana, Cuba, thus the name.

It’s entirely possible to fry someone’s brain with microwaves or other directed energy. The US has investigated technologies along these lines and indeed has operational devices for along these lines for crowd control. But evidently we are not aware of how you make a weapon that injured someone without causing burns.

I would be much more willing to believe people are being targeted by Russian with an unknown toxin or pathogen than long distant direct energy.

I’m not saying this shouldn’t be investigated or these people don’t deserve treatment. Certainly agents and diplomats deserve the upmost protection from geopolitical enemies. I’m not even saying it’s impossible Russia is involved. Just that the evidence is far less than conclusive.

There’s over 13,000 US diplomats and staff abroad + families and another 50k+ employed at the FBI and CIA, not to mention other intelligence agencies. In such a massive population it’s not surprising to see people suffering a similar set of symptoms.
 

Citysnaps

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I watched the recent 60 Minutes Havana Syndrome episode last Sunday, and have followed the issue in the news for many years.

My personal opinion is that it's not intended to be a weapon, but is rather a surveillance tool to gather intelligence from US diplomats and intelligence agents - whether using RF microwave or (out of hearing range) acoustic energy. My vote is for the latter, and could explain the adverse health consequences. If true, from a systems engineering perspective, it's a very clever way to surreptitiously snag secrets at a distance from ones' adversaries.
 

AG_PhamD

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The modern far-right’s incessant conspiratorial garbage is causing me to automatically assume more reasonable explanations. About everything, including this.

Could be the water or bugs.

For a moment I thought you suggesting Havana Syndrome is a right wing conspiracy theory. I think that’s a reasonable to question any narrative based on weak evidence and / or that has strong exculpatory evidence, especially when the narrative has political implications.

The Havana Syndrome with KGB etiology narrative is obviously very appealing compelling to many on the left given their sentiments on Russia, the war, Trump-Russiagate, etc.

I don’t think suggesting blame in the absence of concrete evidence directly linking Russia to these alleged attacks is particularly useful. It really only harms the ability for the US and Russia to cooperate. In fact, in the case of Cuba, if I remember correctly the US diplomatic mission was recalled from Cuba and the US expelled a couple Cuban diplomats over “national security concerns”. Given the timing it’s possible this expulsion was linked to the syndrome “discovery”. At least the strained diplomatic relations caused by a conspiracy theory in this case is far less consequential and far more manageable than other conspiracies… like Biden did not win in 2020 and Trump is the rightful POTUS resulting a massive riot at the capital and people dying.

There is another facet with Havana Syndrome that I want to be careful in how I address. That is, the government developed a compensation fund for victims (govt employees and family members) of Havana syndrome. This creates some perverse incentives for less than honest actors (and potentially even honest people too by their subconscious). Wrongly disbursing compensation funds is bad, but the real problem is that a significant number of false reports could skew data and cofound information, ultimately to the detriment of those who are actually suffering.
 

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The health consequences are real and people have suffered.

The remaining question is whether those consequences are the result of a weapon designed to harm people. Or, a surveillance system designed to collect intelligence. I believe it's the latter.

In either case those who have suffered are entitled to appropriate care and compensation.
 

GermanSuplex

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For a moment I thought you suggesting Havana Syndrome is a right wing conspiracy theory. I think that’s a reasonable to question any narrative based on weak evidence and / or that has strong exculpatory evidence, especially when the narrative has political implications.

The Havana Syndrome with KGB etiology narrative is obviously very appealing compelling to many on the left given their sentiments on Russia, the war, Trump-Russiagate, etc.

I don’t think suggesting blame in the absence of concrete evidence directly linking Russia to these alleged attacks is particularly useful. It really only harms the ability for the US and Russia to cooperate. In fact, in the case of Cuba, if I remember correctly the US diplomatic mission was recalled from Cuba and the US expelled a couple Cuban diplomats over “national security concerns”. Given the timing it’s possible this expulsion was linked to the syndrome “discovery”. At least the strained diplomatic relations caused by a conspiracy theory in this case is far less consequential and far more manageable than other conspiracies… like Biden did not win in 2020 and Trump is the rightful POTUS resulting a massive riot at the capital and people dying.

There is another facet with Havana Syndrome that I want to be careful in how I address. That is, the government developed a compensation fund for victims (govt employees and family members) of Havana syndrome. This creates some perverse incentives for less than honest actors (and potentially even honest people too by their subconscious). Wrongly disbursing compensation funds is bad, but the real problem is that a significant number of false reports could skew data and cofound information, ultimately to the detriment of those who are actually suffering.

I believe Havana Syndrome is real - people go there and come back ill.

I haven’t been interested enough to research. If and when I decide to do so, I have a Trump-filter that places great skepticism on any source that also treats Trump as a sane adult. This could be a right-leaning news network, a Trump voter, a Trump-endorsing politician…

Yes, it’s a form of TDS I have that I think makes me if not more informed, at least less likely to believe complete bullshit.

I don’t know enough about Havana syndrome to have an opinion or theory.
 

Hrafn

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I believe Havana Syndrome is real - people go there and come back ill.

I haven’t been interested enough to research. If and when I decide to do so, I have a Trump-filter that places great skepticism on any source that also treats Trump as a sane adult. This could be a right-leaning news network, a Trump voter, a Trump-endorsing politician…

Yes, it’s a form of TDS I have that I think makes me if not more informed, at least less likely to believe complete bullshit.

I don’t know enough about Havana syndrome to have an opinion or theory.
I’m relatively confident knowledge of a topic is no longer a reason not to have a long and verbose opinion. And, to share it publicly.
 
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