High turnout is terrible for Trump

SuperMatt

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I have been reading a lot about how Biden's lead is narrowing, and that Trump still has a chance. I'm sorry, but that's extremely unrealistic.

1. Democrats have always done better when turnout is higher. Turnout among typical Republican voters is pretty high and quite consistent. A clear majority of America supports moderate to liberal policies, but many of them don't vote. Higher turnout means that the margin might be even bigger than the polls.

2. I see a lot of people quote "Real Clear Politics" as if it's a good source. It's not. They are the ones reporting a tightening race, but they include polls that are utter trash. They also make a big deal about "battleground average" which means literally nothing. You can't put all the "battleground" states into a bucket and average it out. And if you look at the opinion pieces on their homepage, they put extremist baloney on there that nobody should be reading.

3. Trump never made an effort to expand his base. I think he will be lucky to get over 62 million votes this time around, and it looks like we could have 150 million total votes... that's complete and utter disaster for him.

4. The GOP Senate knows he's going to lose. If they thought it was close, they would have delayed Barrett's nomination to encourage conservative turnout. They know it's not close, so they used the last vestiges of their power before they lose it next week.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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I have been reading a lot about how Biden's lead is narrowing, and that Trump still has a chance. I'm sorry, but that's extremely unrealistic.

1. Democrats have always done better when turnout is higher. Turnout among typical Republican voters is pretty high and quite consistent. A clear majority of America supports moderate to liberal policies, but many of them don't vote. Higher turnout means that the margin might be even bigger than the polls.

2. I see a lot of people quote "Real Clear Politics" as if it's a good source. It's not. They are the ones reporting a tightening race, but they include polls that are utter trash. They also make a big deal about "battleground average" which means literally nothing. You can't put all the "battleground" states into a bucket and average it out. And if you look at the opinion pieces on their homepage, they put extremist baloney on there that nobody should be reading.

3. Trump never made an effort to expand his base. I think he will be lucky to get over 62 million votes this time around, and it looks like we could have 150 million total votes... that's complete and utter disaster for him.

4. The GOP Senate knows he's going to lose. If they thought it was close, they would have delayed Barrett's nomination to encourage conservative turnout. They know it's not close, so they used the last vestiges of their power before they lose it next week.
On 4 I think a good number of Republicans want Trump gone. If Trump wins a second term there won’t be anything left to salvage of the Republican Party and their traditional values. It will become the party defined by lying, cheating, and punishing half the country.
 

Alli

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On 4 I think a good number of Republicans want Trump gone. If Trump wins a second term there won’t be anything left to salvage of the Republican Party and their traditional values. It will become the party defined by lying, cheating, and punishing half the country.
If they can get rid of Trump and McConnell they will still stand a chance of taking back the GOP. Otherwise, they may as well hold a funeral and create the third party this country needs.
 

Eric

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I have been reading a lot about how Biden's lead is narrowing, and that Trump still has a chance. I'm sorry, but that's extremely unrealistic.

1. Democrats have always done better when turnout is higher. Turnout among typical Republican voters is pretty high and quite consistent. A clear majority of America supports moderate to liberal policies, but many of them don't vote. Higher turnout means that the margin might be even bigger than the polls.

2. I see a lot of people quote "Real Clear Politics" as if it's a good source. It's not. They are the ones reporting a tightening race, but they include polls that are utter trash. They also make a big deal about "battleground average" which means literally nothing. You can't put all the "battleground" states into a bucket and average it out. And if you look at the opinion pieces on their homepage, they put extremist baloney on there that nobody should be reading.

3. Trump never made an effort to expand his base. I think he will be lucky to get over 62 million votes this time around, and it looks like we could have 150 million total votes... that's complete and utter disaster for him.

4. The GOP Senate knows he's going to lose. If they thought it was close, they would have delayed Barrett's nomination to encourage conservative turnout. They know it's not close, so they used the last vestiges of their power before they lose it next week.
I think we're smart to be cautious, Biden is playing it smart by not taking any of these swing states for granted the way Hillary did and we need to hammer this out until the polls close on election day. That said, the polls do not show it's tightening by mainstream standards, it's still within a point or two and has shown no significant change, outside of Biden opening up a much bigger lead in Wisconsin.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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If they can get rid of Trump and McConnell they will still stand a chance of taking back the GOP. Otherwise, they may as well hold a funeral and create the third party this country needs.
Is McConnell realistically in danger? It's kind of absurd that one person can make decisions for the entire country but only the people in his state can remove him from office.

If Biden wins and wants to do some Trump-like spite based decisions I think he should reduce federal funding to states who are currently taking more than they put in. It just makes good fiscal sense and the citizens of those states will have to go to their elected representatives when they quickly learn that God and guns don't pay the bills.
 

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I think we're smart to be cautious, Biden is playing it smart by not taking any of these swing states for granted the way Hillary did and we need to hammer this out until the polls close on election day. That said, the polls do not show it's tightening by mainstream standards, it's still within a point or two and has shown no significant change, outside of Biden opening up a much bigger lead in Wisconsin.
100% Agree.

Too often I have thought something in an election or referendum (or even a sports result!) a foregone conclusion, only to sit horrified as the night unfolds and the numbers come in.

I am holding my breath and hope that Biden pulls it off… but…

As British PM Harold Wilson said many decades ago, "A week is a long time in politics."
Never more so than now when we are dealing with a desperate Trump. A cornered rat and all that…
 

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100% Agree.

Too often I have thought something in an election or referendum (or even a sports result!) a foregone conclusion, only to sit horrified as the night unfolds and the numbers come in.

I am holding my breath and hope that Biden pulls it off… but…

As British PM Harold Wilson said many decades ago, "A week is a long time in politics."
Never more so than now when we are dealing with a desperate Trump. A cornered rat and all that…

On this occasion, I think that the polls may well be accurate; I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that Mr Biden will win the popular vote handsomely - after all, Secretary Clinton did so in 2016.

I also suspect that he may win the electoral college, but I will confess to two - possibly - concerns, - or causes for concern.

The first concerns the margin of victory: I fear a narrow victory for Mr Biden, and candidly, Mr Biden needs more than a narrow victory, as otherwise, its legitimacy will - I would argue almost inevitably - be challenged by Mr Trump (who will not concede), perhaps supported by the courts, and undoubtedly contested by that lunatic, energised (and excitable) base, the kind who managed extreme anger even in victory.

My second worry concerns a possible stop to - or an attempt to put a stop to - the counting of ballots by court order, especially when significant numbers of ballots (especially posted, or mailed ballots) have yet to be counted, and an attempt to formally cal a result in advance of a completed (and verified) count.

The third, of course, concerns Mr Trump's grossly irresponsible attempts to undermine the legitimacy of the entire electoral process, above all, mailed (or postal) votes.
 

Alli

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Is McConnell realistically in danger? It's kind of absurd that one person can make decisions for the entire country but only the people in his state can remove him from office.

If Biden wins and wants to do some Trump-like spite based decisions I think he should reduce federal funding to states who are currently taking more than they put in. It just makes good fiscal sense and the citizens of those states will have to go to their elected representatives when they quickly learn that God and guns don't pay the bills.
Right now I’m simply hoping that enough sensible people get out and vote. Nobody is a sure bet this year.

And it wouldn’t be Joe playing for spite, it will be Congress cause they hold the purse strings. But that’s a great idea.
 

Arkitect

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It is looking very bad for Trump. Texas is now considered a toss-up instead of likely or lean Republican. Turnout for EARLY voting has already surpassed total votes in liberal areas like Austin TX. Trump is going to get obliterated. We will vote this sucker out!

I have everything crossed for a decisive Biden victory.

I hope Trump loses… bigly… and that it will set in motion the dominoes falls of all the Trump wannabees round the globe.

Our very own PM "Pfeffel the Oven Ready", Duterte, Bolsonaro et al.
 

Eric

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It is looking very bad for Trump. Texas is now considered a toss-up instead of likely or lean Republican. Turnout for EARLY voting has already surpassed total votes in liberal areas like Austin TX. Trump is going to get obliterated. We will vote this sucker out!

Wonder what time they start counting, anyone know? It would be an outlier but awesome if Biden took it.
 

Eric

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Here’s the plan. Tuesday night, we’re all ordering pizza and planning on staying up for an exciting night that leaves us celebrating.
I'll bring the beer!

They're saying that they expect all the Trump voters to come out on election night and that it might balance things out with the early voters, still nervous but keeping my fingers crossed.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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They're saying that they expect all the Trump voters to come out on election night
I'll just point you to this thread.


And add this group to my list of idiots. If you're a diehard Trump supporter why the fuck would you wait until the last minute to vote for him?
 

Eric

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Is this good or bad?

What was the previous number?
It's definitely good, previous numbers had him close to double digits but this is a breakout from that. The catch is that we know most of the early voting is by Democrats and Trump voters plan on voting on election day instead, so if they show up in huge numbers it could spell trouble. We take nothing for granted this time around.
 
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