Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa

Eric

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Interesting development.

Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa​

At a meeting with a range of political parties, the President of France floated a scenario that could potentially lead to French troops deployed in Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron met with parliamentary parties on Thursday. During the meeting Macron said he was open to the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, as announced by, according to French newspaper L’Independant.

Fabien Roussel, a representative of the French Communist Party, said after the meeting that “Macron referenced a scenario that could lead to intervention [of French troops]: the advancement of the front towards Odesa or Kyiv.”
 

Cmaier

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Interesting development.

Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa​

At a meeting with a range of political parties, the President of France floated a scenario that could potentially lead to French troops deployed in Ukraine.

questionable stating that aloud. Won’t likely deter Russia, but does give Zelenskyy some motivation to allocate troops in such a way as to allow this situation to be triggered.
 

AG_PhamD

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I think there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment given the possibility of a Trump re-election.

From what I can tell, Trump hasn’t made his intentions clear other than to repeat if re-elected the war will be over in a day. The pessimistic interpretation would be he’d cede all the occupied territory to Russia and cease supporting Ukraine. The right of course has become critical of the war, but I think it has more to do with having something to criticize and highlight domestic issues. So it’s not surprising why people have this expectation.

But Trump has often had these vague positions so he can claim he was right down the road. The left likes to push this Trump pro-putin narrative, but besides Trump’s positive comments toward Putin publicly, it really doesn’t stand up to reality. Trump, unlike Obama, armed Ukraine (despite the whole holding up funding thing) and hit Russia with unprecedented sanctions.

I think it’s fair to say Putin invaded Ukraine with the expectation Biden would not provide the level of support he did considering Putin invaded Crimea in 2014 and Obama did nothing to stop it.

Trump and Zelensky don’t seem Tom like each other much these days- Trump because of Ukrainian-Clinton Server conspiracies and Hunter Biden nonsense, Zelensky because Trump hasn’t clearly taken Ukraine’s side. But Trump is such a narcissist it doesn’t take much to get much to get back in his good graces. It’s probably enough for Zelensky to praise Trump and speaks poorly of Biden.

Trump has spoken of dissolving NATO, but I don’t think that is or was ever a serious idea. I’m not sure he has the authority to do that anyways. It was about getting members to pay the percent GDP for military asked. For years, many countries have fallen far short while the US has been bankrolling European militaries for years. The threat to leave NATO has been about money, not ideology.

We have no idea how Trump expects to negotiate. I’m not sure Trump could cede occupied Ukraine to Russia without the optics of the US surrendering to Russia. For all we know Trump could tell Putin to leave or threaten sending the US military in to restore Ukraine’s borders. So long as Russia proper was not attacked I think it would be difficult for Putin to justify a nuclear response. Or he might tell Zelensky to make a deal or the US will stop aid entirely. It seems Europe is trying to figure out contingencies if Trump pulls US support permanently.

The problem Ukraine is that they have a serious lack of manpower issue. Both sides are likely attritting massive numbers, but Russia has a huge population to draw from. The Western fighting doctrine for which we are imposing depends on air superiority which Ukraine is unlikely to gain- even with F-16s. The issue is not pilots or competence, it’s the practicality and logistics of maintaining a fleet of planes not designed to operate in places without pristine airfields or that lack extensive maintenance infrastructure. Even with all the weapons they could ask for, manpower is going to be a difficulty.

That said, the resolve of Ukrainians cannot be underestimated. The war supposed to last a few days is now into years. For a country with hardly an Air Force has had tremendous success in taking out Russian aircraft, especially as of late. And for a country with literally no major naval assets, they’ve destroyed 1/3 of Russia’s Black Sea fleet- something I don’t think anyone could have predicted.
 

GermanSuplex

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But Trump has often had these vague positions so he can claim he was right down the road. The left likes to push this Trump pro-putin narrative, but besides Trump’s positive comments toward Putin publicly, it really doesn’t stand up to reality. Trump, unlike Obama, armed Ukraine (despite the whole holding up funding thing) and hit Russia with unprecedented sanctions.

Yes, if you ignore everything that is contrary to the narrative, Trump was "tough" on Russia.

Trump did sign off on sanctioning Russia, but let's not pretend it was done with any authority, it was done after congress pressured him. He had no desire to upset his bff.


You are free to ignore Trump's praise of Putin as he imprisons the innocent and kills his critics and write it off as bluster, that's fine. I just can't figure out why - after 9 years of criticism - Trump can't seem to do anything that pull out the lube for Putin. He'll criticize our nation and leaders in an instant, but can't seem to bring himself to even superficially criticize a murderer.

You start pairing his comments with Putin with his comments on the leaders of China and NK, his paling around with Viktor Orban, and never denying the fact he wants to be a dictator.... well, we can all draw our own conclusions, I guess.
 

dada_dave

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Yes, if you ignore everything that is contrary to the narrative, Trump was "tough" on Russia.

Trump did sign off on sanctioning Russia, but let's not pretend it was done with any authority, it was done after congress pressured him. He had no desire to upset his bff.


You are free to ignore Trump's praise of Putin as he imprisons the innocent and kills his critics and write it off as bluster, that's fine. I just can't figure out why - after 9 years of criticism - Trump can't seem to do anything that pull out the lube for Putin. He'll criticize our nation and leaders in an instant, but can't seem to bring himself to even superficially criticize a murderer.

You start pairing his comments with Putin with his comments on the leaders of China and NK, his paling around with Viktor Orban, and never denying the fact he wants to be a dictator.... well, we can all draw our own conclusions, I guess.
Agreed. Also @AG_PhamD saying that Trump hasn't taken any "firm position on Ukraine" as though Trump hasn't used his House Republican allies to block Ukraine funding, something @AG_PhamD said in the Ukraine thread (FEB last year) was unlikely to happen. Further, very clearly that the plan wrt to NATO is to use the "2% funding" issue as the excuse to dissolve NATO, that this is very much about isolationist and pro-authoritarian ideology that Trump and those in his orbit advocate for which is why they'd do it anyway despite defense spending being up for most if not all of our allies (can't imagine why), and Bolton claims he damn near did it in his first term. So you've got Trump himself saying he'll do it, Bolton agreeing that he'd absolutely do it, a Republican party increasingly enthralled by him, and guys like this saying "who knows what will happen if Trump wins?" For some reason, @AG_PhamD chooses to consistently downplay the dangers Trump represents. I would think that after consistently being wrong on this issue and others explaining that the whole "take him seriously but not literally" shtick has been very clearly wrong since 2016 that he'd update his priors, but apparently not.

I think there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment given the possibility of a Trump re-election.

From what I can tell, Trump hasn’t made his intentions clear other than to repeat if re-elected the war will be over in a day. The pessimistic interpretation would be he’d cede all the occupied territory to Russia and cease supporting Ukraine. The right of course has become critical of the war, but I think it has more to do with having something to criticize and highlight domestic issues. So it’s not surprising why people have this expectation.

But Trump has often had these vague positions so he can claim he was right down the road. The left likes to push this Trump pro-putin narrative, but besides Trump’s positive comments toward Putin publicly, it really doesn’t stand up to reality. Trump, unlike Obama, armed Ukraine (despite the whole holding up funding thing) and hit Russia with unprecedented sanctions.

I think it’s fair to say Putin invaded Ukraine with the expectation Biden would not provide the level of support he did considering Putin invaded Crimea in 2014 and Obama did nothing to stop it.

Trump and Zelensky don’t seem Tom like each other much these days- Trump because of Ukrainian-Clinton Server conspiracies and Hunter Biden nonsense, Zelensky because Trump hasn’t clearly taken Ukraine’s side. But Trump is such a narcissist it doesn’t take much to get much to get back in his good graces. It’s probably enough for Zelensky to praise Trump and speaks poorly of Biden.

Trump has spoken of dissolving NATO, but I don’t think that is or was ever a serious idea. I’m not sure he has the authority to do that anyways. It was about getting members to pay the percent GDP for military asked. For years, many countries have fallen far short while the US has been bankrolling European militaries for years. The threat to leave NATO has been about money, not ideology.

We have no idea how Trump expects to negotiate. I’m not sure Trump could cede occupied Ukraine to Russia without the optics of the US surrendering to Russia. For all we know Trump could tell Putin to leave or threaten sending the US military in to restore Ukraine’s borders. So long as Russia proper was not attacked I think it would be difficult for Putin to justify a nuclear response. Or he might tell Zelensky to make a deal or the US will stop aid entirely. It seems Europe is trying to figure out contingencies if Trump pulls US support permanently.
Yeah can't imagine why.
The problem Ukraine is that they have a serious lack of manpower issue.
True. There are debates and consternation within the Ukrainian legislature about how far to extend the draft if at all and the army is stretched thin. But you know ... they also have a serious ammunition shortage. With respect to the above, care to elaborate about why US arms shipments have suddenly fizzled out? Who blew up that deal? Whose supporters in government have consistently been anti-Ukraine?

Both sides are likely attritting massive numbers, but Russia has a huge population to draw from. The Western fighting doctrine for which we are imposing depends on air superiority which Ukraine is unlikely to gain- even with F-16s. The issue is not pilots or competence, it’s the practicality and logistics of maintaining a fleet of planes not designed to operate in places without pristine airfields or that lack extensive maintenance infrastructure. Even with all the weapons they could ask for, manpower is going to be a difficulty.
It's true that turning them into a mini-me army that can do what we do is probably not going to work all that well, they don't have the back-end capabilities and we have a piss poor track record of trying that anyway, and that while some of our purported military advice has been good, some of it has not been. However, the necessity of the F-16 operating from pristine airfields is actually overblown. They may not be as rugged as the Gripen, but F16s have had the ability to take off from highways and the like for about 10+ years, I can't remember which block. They're a good deal tougher than people seem to think.

That said, the resolve of Ukrainians cannot be underestimated. The war supposed to last a few days is now into years. For a country with hardly an Air Force has had tremendous success in taking out Russian aircraft, especially as of late. And for a country with literally no major naval assets, they’ve destroyed 1/3 of Russia’s Black Sea fleet- something I don’t think anyone could have predicted.

This I very much agree with.
 
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AG_PhamD

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Yes, if you ignore everything that is contrary to the narrative, Trump was "tough" on Russia.

Trump did sign off on sanctioning Russia, but let's not pretend it was done with any authority, it was done after congress pressured him. He had no desire to upset his bff.


You are free to ignore Trump's praise of Putin as he imprisons the innocent and kills his critics and write it off as bluster, that's fine. I just can't figure out why - after 9 years of criticism - Trump can't seem to do anything that pull out the lube for Putin. He'll criticize our nation and leaders in an instant, but can't seem to bring himself to even superficially criticize a murderer.

You start pairing his comments with Putin with his comments on the leaders of China and NK, his paling around with Viktor Orban, and never denying the fact he wants to be a dictator.... well, we can all draw our own conclusions, I guess.

I could care less about what Trump says about Putin or any other dictator. What matters is how geopolitics are handled.

Virtue signaling condemnation to the world carries little practical benefit. A prime example of this is Biden speaking ill of MBS (rightfully so)… but when we actually needed Saudi Arabia’s oil post Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, MBS effectively told Biden to F-off.

I’d rather have our leaders act cordially with dictators and other criminal leaders we have no choice but to cooperate with than to alienate them to no benefit. I see no problem using flattery as an effective tool in forming and maintaining relationships with such leaders so long as the line is held when it comes to policy decisions that actually matter.

For example, I’d much rather have POTUS for example speak kindly to the Mullahs than give them billions of dollars.

If Trump is elected, then we shall see where his priorities lay between Russia and Ukraine. He should have to answer such questions but given he won’t participate in primary debates and it’s entirely possible he and Biden will not debate (either because Trump will refuse working with X network or Biden will claim he will not debate someone like Trump). Even then, I don’t trust Trump from pulling a 180 for or against Ukraine as soon as he’s in office.

I find the republicans withholding of Ukraine aid a truly disgusting act, especially since most have supported aid in the past. The result is costing countless lives and increasing the chances of NATO putting boots on the ground in the future. The moral and democratic imperatives aside, the Ukraine war has cost us nothing when compared to our defense budget, has tremendously degraded Russia’s current and longterm military capabilities (one of our biggest geopolitical foes), has stimulated our economy and replacement of aging military hardware- all while not having to sacrifice the life of a single US soldier. It’s hard not to see this war as beneficial to the US.

And if they truly believed the argument the war must end to save lives, which I don’t think is an unfair argument, the republicans would have promoted a peace deal at the outbreak of the war, or when Ukraine was on the offensive and in a optimal negotiating position, etc. And perhaps they would actually be working to promote a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Ultimately shouldn’t be Ukraine’s decision whether they fight or negotiate?

Pulling the rug on Ukraine seems no different than Biden effectively handing Afghanistan over to the Taliban. And there is no way this doesn’t hurt our world standing even more than it has been.

I don’t think the republicans want to end this war. I think they want to highlight domestic issues and juxtapose those problems with the money spent on Ukraine. I think they want the Europeans to recognize how underfunded their militaries are and how dependent they have been on the US for military aid- and to signal they need to pickup the slack. Along those lines, they’re forcing the Europeans to cough up their own military hardware. I think it’s also a bit of a power play over Ukraine and the other European countries.

I would not be surprised to see a second term of Trump dump unprecedented funding into Ukraine or force a negotiation based on the involvement of US/NATO troops. At the same time, I see it entirely possible he ends the war to Russia’s benefit just to say he ended the war.

I just have a hard time believing the right will allow Putin the optics of winning this war. Let alone the military and defense-industrial complex allowing this war to end on such terms.

Considering how much of the right’s opposition is based on obscuring facts like much of the “money” we’ve given them is the replacement value of military equipment already retired or slated for retirement- therefore the accounting is much more nuanced. It’s not like retiring this stuff doesn’t cost money either…. these complaints are not justified so it makes me wonder what their motives really are.

Personally, I won’t support any politician who is blocking aid to Ukraine or who wants to determine when Ukraine can no longer continue fighting.

Even if we assume Trump is secretly a Russian asset, following the 2016 MSNBC narrative, it doesn’t explain why the rest of the Republican Party would work in Russia’s favor. Pro-Russian ideology isn’t exactly a traditional right wing platform.
 

GermanSuplex

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IEven if we assume Trump is secretly a Russian asset, following the 2016 MSNBC narrative, it doesn’t explain why the rest of the Republican Party would work in Russia’s favor. Pro-Russian ideology isn’t exactly a traditional right wing platform.

It's a cult around Trump, that's why. Trump likes Putin, why doesn't matter, but his base follow what he says. That's what a cult is, you become less dependent on your logic, critical thinking and reasoning skills, and you just go with whatever the leader says.

Once you accept the GOP is a cult of Trump, the rest makes sense.

As for not caring about what Trump says about Putin, that's fine, just don't pretend others are being reactionary when they point out what he says.

-Likes Putin
-Withheld aid to Ukraine to get dirt on a political opponent
-Hates NATO and many of our NATO allies. Except for Viktor Orban, imagine that.
-Thinks he's NATO's loan shark and can break kneecaps for funds or tell Putin to do what he wants.

But you only care what he actually does. The problem is, I've seen what he actually does, and when paired with what he says, it doesn't look good. By your own admission, you have no clue if he'd give the win to Putin or continue dumping money into Ukraine. No thanks, I'm going with the people who will help Ukraine and will say so out loud without verbally fellating the people causing the problems.
 
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