Pfizer says its vaccine is 90% effective

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Holy crap! I hope this is true.


Covid-19 vaccine 90 percent effective in first analysis, Pfizer says

"Today is a great day for science and humanity," Albert Bourla, Pfizer's chairman and chief executive, said in a statement.
means *little* unfortunately w/o understanding duration of effect...:(

NYT has a good one on this:

Independent scientists have cautioned against hyping early results before long-term safety and efficacy data has been collected. And no one knows how long the vaccine’s protection might last. Still, the development makes Pfizer the first company to announce positive results from a late-stage vaccine trial, vaulting it to the front of a frenzied global race that began in January and has unfolded at record-breaking speed.


So the issues are two-fold. mRNA has a low stability / short(er) half-life and thus mRNA-based vaccines need to be stored at colder temps.
This makes the logistics tougher. Since we need 60-70% of the population immune to achieve herd immunity, we need to vaccinate a good 200M people in the USA to reach these levels. So if you want to make this happen in 6 months, that's 1M+ shots a day. The Pfizer one actually used a booster AFAIK so that's 2M+ shots. It's all we need if the immunity lasts years. But if it's less, it's like chasing our tail.
 
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I still feel they need rapid testing first.
Agree. RN the outpatient turnaround time for a test seems to be 6-8H. Not bad if it's a question of return to work. It's not good enough if the question is immediate access to a building or venue.

I'd also say that the October WH outbreak is the indicator how rapid testing can fail. I'm fairly certain that what happened is that after months of this system working really well, they had gotten breached by a false negative test result. Had they had additional safety measures in place, this would not have been a major outbreak, but well..they were unjustifiably confident as this administration had been throughout.
 

hulugu

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Agree. RN the outpatient turnaround time for a test seems to be 6-8H. Not bad if it's a question of return to work. It's not good enough if the question is immediate access to a building or venue.

I'd also say that the October WH outbreak is the indicator how rapid testing can fail. I'm fairly certain that what happened is that after months of this system working really well, they had gotten breached by a false negative test result. Had they had additional safety measures in place, this would not have been a major outbreak, but well..they were unjustifiably confident as this administration had been throughout.

Yeah, rapid testing has an error rate, and because the White House has refused other safety measures, they were always vulnerable to a false negative. And, the fact that the outbreak is so wide-spread shows that they really aren't following the test-contain-trace-treat methodology.

I read two interesting points. For one, the production team on Jurassic Park used 40,000 tests to keep COVID-19 at bay during filming. And, second University of Arizona is expanding its COVID-19 testing and antibody studies. Both show that rapid testing can work, but only within a larger paradigm.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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CA governor Newsom posted today that best case scenario this vaccine probably wouldn't be available to the general public until April.

But just this news as it stands today will probably already cause the nation's idiots to burn their masks and go about their lives as if the virus never happened.
 

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UK News:

So the Pfizer vaccine shows 90% efficacy (apparently) and the UK Government is all gung ho.

They announced that they are planning to start rolling it out in December… yeah, well, that's this bunch of incompetents' plan. So don't hold your breath.

But getting the vaccine into the patient is the problem. Temperature control being the biggest hurdle… and the suppression tactics must continue because “we will not know how effective the vaccine is at stopping the transmission [for some time].”
“The protection of an individual only comes after both doses and then one to two weeks after that, so that itself is a four to five week process.”


So even having been told it takes a minimum of five weeks from first vaccine, journalists were asking "If I get the vaccine on 1st December, can I hug my granny at Christmas?" 🙄 *sigh*

Anyway, here's the published provisional ranking of prioritisation:
  1. older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers
  2. all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
  3. all those 75 years of age and over
  4. all those 70 years of age and over
  5. all those 65 years of age and over
  6. high-risk adults under 65 years of age
  7. moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
  8. all those 60 years of age and over
  9. all those 55 years of age and over
  10. all those 50 years of age and over
  11. rest of the population (priority to be determined)
By the time they get down to me (9) I hope any obvious side effects and such will have had time to manifest.

Meanwhile, I'm keeping healthy, wearing a mask — and keeping my distance.
 
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CA governor Newsom posted today that best case scenario this vaccine probably wouldn't be available to the general public until April.

But just this news as it stands today will probably already cause the nation's idiots to burn their masks and go about their lives as if the virus never happened.
There are so many problems with yesterday's announcement. For example, a Pharma company will spin the results in the most favorable light, because that's their direct financial interest. The relevant info is in the details, that includes what Newsome said, availability, number of shots, storage requirements, distribution pathways, and duration of immunity. Everybody were rolling their eyes about Trump claiming vaccine by election. Best case scenario is Phase III data by February, IMHO. So we'll remain super vulnerable for the COVID-20 season. This is why Redfield advocated for masks.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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There are so many problems with yesterday's announcement. For example, a Pharma company will spin the results in the most favorable light, because that's their direct financial interest. The relevant info is in the details, that includes what Newsome said, availability, number of shots, storage requirements, distribution pathways, and duration of immunity. Everybody were rolling their eyes about Trump claiming vaccine by election. Best case scenario is Phase III data by February, IMHO. So we'll remain super vulnerable for the COVID-20 season. This is why Redfield advocated for masks.

I also think it’s absurd to give any politician credit for a successful vaccine, as if the pharmaceutical industry was just going to sit on their ass until a politician said go. If nothing else this a huge once in a lifetime financial opportunity and nothing motivates in this country more than windfall profits.
 
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I also think it’s absurd to give any politician credit for a successful vaccine, as if the pharmaceutical industry was just going to sit on their ass until a politician said go. If nothing else this a huge once in a lifetime financial opportunity and nothing motivates in this country more than windfall profits.
Pfizer's CEO stated they didn't ask for external funding to keep their independence. It's pretty hilarious how Pence jumped to take credit BTW just to be smacked in the face with a rebuttal from Pfizer. It's ironic that the pro market Trump/Pence duo think enterprises cannot work without the government pushing them:)
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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Pfizer's CEO stated they didn't ask for external funding to keep their independence. It's pretty hilarious how Pence jumped to take credit BTW just to be smacked in the face with a rebuttal from Pfizer. It's ironic that the pro market Trump/Pence duo think enterprises cannot work without the government pushing them:)
I believe that would be considered communism. Maybe we should run that by Trump’s supporters. So either you’re supporting a communist or a liar. Take some time to decide which.
 

Apple fanboy

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Question: Would you jump out of a plane with a parachute if I told you it was 90% effective? I think not!
 

Thomas Veil

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Well, I'm not sure that's an apt comparison. I appreciate and share your respect for caution, but a better analogy would be:

If you knew your plane was going to crash sooner or later, would you jump out with a parachute that was 90% effective?
 
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Well, I'm not sure that's an apt comparison. I appreciate and share your respect for caution, but a better analogy would be:

If you knew your plane was going to crash sooner or later, would you jump out with a parachute that was 90% effective?
Question: Would you jump out of a plane with a parachute if I told you it was 90% effective? I think not!
I think the right question is, would you be more willing to hop behind the wheel if someone told you the seat belt is 90% effective in keeping you unscathed in case of a crash?
 

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Question: Would you jump out of a plane with a parachute if I told you it was 90% effective? I think not!
Good question!

If the plane was on fire and staying on board meant I'd die, sure I'd risk it.

But…

If there's a chance the plane crash is controlled and I'd just walk away with a few bumps and scratches… probably not.

I'd pass the parachute on to someone more frightened than myself.
 

Thomas Veil

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What if the plane had self-extinguishing apparatus and parachutes that could pop out of the top and land the plane gently?

(I think I'm getting a little too deep into the analogy here.) :LOL:
 
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