Rising crime will hurt Democrats

Chew Toy McCoy

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Republicans will make it 100% about defund the police even though that largely hasn’t happened and Democrats will make it about access to guns even though gun violence isn’t the only crime that is up. They are both lazy arguments that solve nothing, but most voters are also lazy on this issue and that means they think incarceration solves everything and that’s the flag the Republican party proudly waves.

The fact is crime goes down when there is a healthy middle class and the middle class has been on decline even before Trump, and existing on a mountain of debt isn’t “healthy”. Neither party will address this fact though because Democrats won’t acknowledge there is an economic problem on their watch or will blame it all on covid and Republicans would rather turn the entire country into a prison yard than entertain the possibility there is anything wrong with our current iteration of capitalism.

Since Republicans have largely controlled the narrative since Obama took office I’m curious what people on here think Democrats can do to change the perception that they are weak on crime or that they have solutions that don’t revolve around throwing everybody in prison.
 

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Republicans have an outrage machine. They just need to pick good things to put in it. The machine is Fox News for TV, The Daily Wire for Facebook (it gets more “engagement” than anything else on Facebook), and a handful of highly-followed Twitter accounts. They work together to decide what they want to push in hopes of swaying the electorate.

CRT - This is a complete nothing-burger, but Fox News mentioned it 1300 times in 3 weeks:

Defund - This became a slogan in 2020, and hasn’t been implemented anywhere yet. However, the Republicans are already blaming it for a rise in crime. Talking to some right-wingers, the response to telling them it hasn’t been implemented is “The criminals HEARD the police will be defunded so they started criming more!” Which is magical thinking: “Saying “defund” 3 times makes people start murdering each other!"

Is it worth fighting against this baloney? Who knows. People in that echo chamber will never hear anybody outside of it, so until we can fix that problem, what’s the point? My tiny protest of posting on a right-wing dominated forum to hopefully open an eye or two isn’t even a drop in the bucket, especially with my abrasive personality - I probably make them clutch their pearls even tighter.
 

thekev

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Defund - This became a slogan in 2020, and hasn’t been implemented anywhere yet. However, the Republicans are already blaming it for a rise in crime. Talking to some right-wingers, the response to telling them it hasn’t been implemented is “The criminals HEARD the police will be defunded so they started criming more!” Which is magical thinking: “Saying “defund” 3 times makes people start murdering each other!"

They'll argue that the movement emboldened criminals and killed morale among police. If it isn't this or CRT, they'll find something else to be angry about. The people yelling about "defund the police" are the same ones who claimed Biden and Harris would usher in a police state. At one point they were running with both messages simultaneously.
 
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Chew Toy McCoy

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Republicans have an outrage machine. They just need to pick good things to put in it. The machine is Fox News for TV, The Daily Wire for Facebook (it gets more “engagement” than anything else on Facebook), and a handful of highly-followed Twitter accounts. They work together to decide what they want to push in hopes of swaying the electorate.

CRT - This is a complete nothing-burger, but Fox News mentioned it 1300 times in 3 weeks:

Defund - This became a slogan in 2020, and hasn’t been implemented anywhere yet. However, the Republicans are already blaming it for a rise in crime. Talking to some right-wingers, the response to telling them it hasn’t been implemented is “The criminals HEARD the police will be defunded so they started criming more!” Which is magical thinking: “Saying “defund” 3 times makes people start murdering each other!"

Is it worth fighting against this baloney? Who knows. People in that echo chamber will never hear anybody outside of it, so until we can fix that problem, what’s the point? My tiny protest of posting on a right-wing dominated forum to hopefully open an eye or two isn’t even a drop in the bucket, especially with my abrasive personality - I probably make them clutch their pearls even tighter.

Democrats kind of painted themselves into a corner with letting "defund the police" stick. While it may not have actually happened, they certainly can't now run on increasing police funds due to increased crime. So that's why I'm asking what they could possibly say as an alternative.

I know certain groups of people won't change their mind, but there are still plenty of moderates who might vote on this one issue and the perception of who will handle it better.
 

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Peter Principal
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They'll argue that the movement emboldened criminals and killed morale among police. If it isn't this or CRT, they'll find something else to be angry about. The people yelling about "defund the police" are the same ones who claimed Biden and Harris would usher in a police state. At one point they were running with both messages simultaneously.
Truth is, Democrats are harder on crime than republicans if they are in tight competition with republicans. (I can dig up the study if anybody's interested).

Republicans will make it 100% about defund the police even though that largely hasn’t happened and Democrats will make it about access to guns even though gun violence isn’t the only crime that is up. They are both lazy arguments that solve nothing, but most voters are also lazy on this issue and that means they think incarceration solves everything and that’s the flag the Republican party proudly waves.

The fact is crime goes down when there is a healthy middle class and the middle class has been on decline even before Trump, and existing on a mountain of debt isn’t “healthy”. Neither party will address this fact though because Democrats won’t acknowledge there is an economic problem on their watch or will blame it all on covid and Republicans would rather turn the entire country into a prison yard than entertain the possibility there is anything wrong with our current iteration of capitalism.

Since Republicans have largely controlled the narrative since Obama took office I’m curious what people on here think Democrats can do to change the perception that they are weak on crime or that they have solutions that don’t revolve around throwing everybody in prison.

Democrats achieve this task without crime with the help of Sinema and Manchin.
 
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Chew Toy McCoy

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Democrats achieve this task without crime with the help of Sinema and Manchin.

Off the top of my head there was "super predators" and 3 strikes law.

But I also don't recall a time when Democrats also seemed to be anti-police while crime was on the rise.
 

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Crime is up in Houston and I already see people blaming it on the whole "defund" the police thing. People are frustrated and want answers.

A few weeks ago a friend's brother was murdered in a home invasion.
 

thekev

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Truth is, Democrats are harder on crime than republicans if they are in tight competition with republicans. (I can dig up the study if anybody's interested).

That is a dangerous thing for me. I end up reading these, then marking citations from it that I want to read, then checking who cited the original one in case of interesting responses.... It is bad on a work day, as I end up working later to compensate.

Crime is up in Houston and I already see people blaming it on the whole "defund" the police thing. People are frustrated and want answers.

A few weeks ago a friend's brother was murdered in a home invasion.

Even if it was an issue of cultural attitude, it's quite a reach to attribute problems in Texas to that.
 

SuperMatt

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Crime is up in Houston and I already see people blaming it on the whole "defund" the police thing. People are frustrated and want answers.

A few weeks ago a friend's brother was murdered in a home invasion.
"Thanks, Obama...."
 

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Peter Principal
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Crime is up in Houston and I already see people blaming it on the whole "defund" the police thing. People are frustrated and want answers.
More guns didn't fix this issue?! Whodathunk!

A few weeks ago a friend's brother was murdered in a home invasion.\
Sorry about your friend's brother:(

That is a dangerous thing for me. I end up reading these, then marking citations from it that I want to read, then checking who cited the original one in case of interesting responses.... It is bad on a work day, as I end up working later to compensate.
Ditto, LOL.

Off the top of my head there was "super predators" and 3 strikes law.

But I also don't recall a time when Democrats also seemed to be anti-police while crime was on the rise.
But are they anti police? I'll say this though, Bill Clinton is responsible for the largest mass police recruitment ever. This came with a sharp drop in crime...did more cops reduce crime? Unlikely, as Canada without such reforms experienced the same trends. So either Canada's crime is driven by the crime in the USA, or better social net and understanding of drivers of an addiction epidemic is just better ways to deal with issues.
 

lizkat

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Democrats kind of painted themselves into a corner with letting "defund the police" stick. While it may not have actually happened, they certainly can't now run on increasing police funds due to increased crime. So that's why I'm asking what they could possibly say as an alternative.

I know certain groups of people won't change their mind, but there are still plenty of moderates who might vote on this one issue and the perception of who will handle it better.

The Dems need to focus on the appeal of alternatives to the risks of juvenile criminal activities, for one thing. Crime prevention starts with jobs and structured options for leisure activities for middle school and teens. It's a bit late to start trying to "fix" home-invading 20-30yo gun-toting criminals when a kid has been unsupervised outside school hours except by peers or gang groomers since the age of 7 or 8... and how long is it now that in the USA at least, two incomes are typically needed, yet still we somehow expect good parenting even from one-parent households and so don't bother funding daycare or after-school programs.

Stop buying surplus military gear and start sending out more mental health counselors along with police on domestic violence calls.

And you know, quit serving drugs-trade warrants with SWAT teams... focus on proportionate response to perceived lack of public safety. Keep working to increase awareness of addiction as a chronic illness, and back it up with appropriately overseen funding for treatment and related facilities including halfway houses and apprenticeship / job-retraining options.

Get private enterprise involved with more than making a buck off shoddy facsimiles of actual treatment and job assistance. For all the GOP yelling about socialism, Democrats in DC and state capitols are just as wedded to assorted industry sectors as are the Republicans. Time to quit denying that and start turning it to better purpose than, uh... insider trading with cronies. And say so. On television.

None of this stuff is rocket science.. not even as complicated as tearing down a stack of subprime mortgages and slicing them up into something looks like a decent investment. One mostly just has to give a good god damn about people who didn't win the zip code lottery at birth. Sure there are nogoodniks across all walks of life but most juvie crime is about neglect, poverty, lack of opportunity and nowadays a lack of adult role models in civic life: actual leadership includes ability to expand the next generation's view of an attractive future.

What's needed is no mystery, either: a mix of better education, more jobs, more counseling, more opportunity to discover that accomplishing something constructive and fun with leisure time sure beats getting dead before the age of majority out of sheer despair --and taking innocents and ordinary people in their prime of productivity along for the ride at random.
 
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Chew Toy McCoy

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More guns didn't fix this issue?! Whodathunk!


Sorry about your friend's brother:(


Ditto, LOL.


But are they anti police? I'll say this though, Bill Clinton is responsible for the largest mass police recruitment ever. This came with a sharp drop in crime...did more cops reduce crime? Unlikely, as Canada without such reforms experienced the same trends. So either Canada's crime is driven by the crime in the USA, or better social net and understanding of drivers of an addiction epidemic is just better ways to deal with issues.

I’d say at least over the past year the perception that’s been fed by the media has been that the Democrats are anti police, or at least that they are more interested in cleaning house with no concern about crime levels during that period. Doesn’t help that police reform is either at a standstill or moving at a snails pace.

From the right this also seems to be tied to their weird obsession with “wealth redistribution”. They are perfectly fine with the vast amount of the wealth of this country being distributed to the top because it was done by legal (some questionably) means and therefore shouldn’t be taken away from those people by the government. Similarly, they don’t think funds should be taken from the police and given to things like mental health services even though doing so would reduce the burden on cops who aren’t properly equipped to handle those situations. They just see redistributing those funds as meaning cops won’t have the man and firepower to fight crime period.
 

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Peter Principal
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None of this stuff is rocket science.. not even as complicated as tearing down a stack of subprime mortgages and slicing them up into something looks like a decent investment. One mostly just has to give a good god damn about people who didn't win the zip code lottery at birth. Sure there are nogoodniks across all walks of life but most juvie crime is about neglect, poverty, lack of opportunity and nowadays a lack of adult role models in civic life: actual leadership includes ability to expand the next generation's view of an attractive future.
I'll say that since I've learned about redlining I no longer consider it a lottery. I think our zip code driven disparities are really driven by redlining which was driven by racism.
 

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Peter Principal
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I’d say at least over the past year the perception that’s been fed by the media has been that the Democrats are anti police, or at least that they are more interested in cleaning house with no concern about crime levels during that period. Doesn’t help that police reform is either at a standstill or moving at a snails pace.

From the right this also seems to be tied to their weird obsession with “wealth redistribution”. They are perfectly fine with the vast amount of the wealth of this country being distributed to the top because it was done by legal (some questionably) means and therefore shouldn’t be taken away from those people by the government. Similarly, they don’t think funds should be taken from the police and given to things like mental health services even though doing so would reduce the burden on cops who aren’t properly equipped to handle those situations. They just see redistributing those funds as meaning cops won’t have the man and firepower to fight crime period.
Yeah but public perception is meaningless really. I mean the GOP managed to sell themselves as the party that is the right choice for the economy despite 40+ years of trends suggesting otherwise, LOL. Or party of personal responsibility. Party of anti elitism. Party for mothers. And it goes on and on.
 

Eric

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Democrats kind of painted themselves into a corner with letting "defund the police" stick. While it may not have actually happened, they certainly can't now run on increasing police funds due to increased crime. So that's why I'm asking what they could possibly say as an alternative.

I know certain groups of people won't change their mind, but there are still plenty of moderates who might vote on this one issue and the perception of who will handle it better.
Every major Democrat has clearly stated they don't want to defund the police, especially Biden. It comes from the Liberal crowds/rallies, not those in office. Most are aware of this, the only ones pinning this on the entire party are extremists on the right. You like to tout these talking points, you should watch less Fox News, seriously you'll be better off in general.
 
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Chew Toy McCoy

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Every major Democrat has clearly stated they don't want to defund the police, especially Biden. It comes from the Liberal crowds/rallies, not those in office. Most are aware of this, the only ones pinning this on the entire party are extremists on the right. You like to tout these talking points, you should watch less Fox News, seriously you'll be better off in general.

I don't watch Fox News (or any news channel for that matter), but there's no shortage of being exposed to what is being said on there via the internet. I don't usually quote or site more liberal news sources because there are already plenty of people on here doing it and it would be redundant. Let's not forgot it was Fox News viewers who put Trump in office and continue to support him. So I think just ignoring what Fox News or similar are putting out there isn't going to solve anything and they've only gotten more extreme. Trump won because many on the right thought we were already putting our heads in the sand when it came to their concerns and needs and it seems like some are doing that again comforted by Biden currently in office.

If Democrats get crushed in 2022 you can pretty much guarantee that it happened as a result of what you think we should just ignore or blow off.
 
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Chew Toy McCoy

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Yeah but public perception is meaningless really. I mean the GOP managed to sell themselves as the party that is the right choice for the economy despite 40+ years of trends suggesting otherwise, LOL. Or party of personal responsibility. Party of anti elitism. Party for mothers. And it goes on and on.

It is kind of ironic that to some degree Rupublcan voters finally woke up to their party's decades of lies and then replaced their leadership with an even bigger liar. It's like the addicts who replaced their prescription pain pills with street heroin and then don't see the addiction as the problem. It's everything else. Feeding the addiction makes them feel better while solving nothing.
 

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It is kind of ironic that to some degree Rupublcan voters finally woke up to their party's decades of lies and then replaced their leadership with an even bigger liar. It's like the addicts who replaced their prescription pain pills with street heroin and then don't see the addiction as the problem. It's everything else. Feeding the addiction makes them feel better while solving nothing.
Yup, they've been in a positive feedback loop and I have a difficult time seeing those switches flip back. They too have a difficult time seeing that...
 

Thomas Veil

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Republicans will make it 100% about defund the police even though that largely hasn’t happened and Democrats will make it about access to guns even though gun violence isn’t the only crime that is up....
Democrats do need to make it clear as glass that they are not going to defund the police. They need to hit this point over and over, because you know the Republicans will try to hang it on us.

Access to guns will not be the only issue, but I think it's going to become an important one...maybe not in the next four years, but in the near future. It has become obvious that guns-for-everybody is not a policy that works. If it did work, all these stories would not be about mass shootings, they would be about shootings that were stopped by the imaginary "good guy with a gun". Notice you don't see any Republicans pushing the good guy with a gun narrative anymore. They'd look like idiots if they did.

So I may be naive, but I think the tide is slowly, slowly turning against guns. People don't want to read about mass shootings virtually every single day. More cops with better training is a part of the solution. And as I've suggested before, recruiting as many black (and other minority) cops as possible will go a long way toward making us safer and alleviating BLM concerns at the same time. (Sorry, white cops, but I come down strongly on the side of affirmative action on this one.)

Now, what people "turning against guns" looks like, that's up in the air. I'd love to see us try a gun buy-back program, or limit the number (so you can't own an arsenal), or even just tax the living shit out of gun purchases (I'm talking minimally a 100% tax). Anything to discourage people from buying more.

A publicity campaign against guns, one that emulates the anti-smoking campaign, would be a big help. We spent decades telling people cigarettes kill, even though cigarettes are still legal. You telling me we can't do the exact same thing with guns?

Virtually all of this depends on defeating powerful gun-loving Republicans, or as Bill Maher refers to them, ammosexuals.

The fact is crime goes down when there is a healthy middle class and the middle class has been on decline even before Trump, and existing on a mountain of debt isn’t “healthy”. Neither party will address this fact though because Democrats won’t acknowledge there is an economic problem on their watch or will blame it all on covid and Republicans would rather turn the entire country into a prison yard than entertain the possibility there is anything wrong with our current iteration of capitalism.

Since Republicans have largely controlled the narrative since Obama took office I’m curious what people on here think Democrats can do to change the perception that they are weak on crime or that they have solutions that don’t revolve around throwing everybody in prison.
Getting wealth to re-distribute back down to the middle and lower classes is an even tougher nut to crack. On the positive side, there's never been as much good will among the uber-rich as there is right now. More than a few of them are saying yes, tax me more.

Again, no programs will work unless Republican roadblocks can be torn down. They are very good at messaging, or what the rest of us refer to as lying. We don't need to lie, just to point out theirs. Now, Trump's going around the country again spreading his lies. Why don't we have someone out there spreading the truth, and getting TV coverage? Why isn't somebody like, for example, Bill Clinton, a guy who comes from the "great American heartland", out on the speech trail between elections, evangelizing the Democratic cause but also talking to Republicans too, telling them how they're being lied to? How come the Democratic party (or a PAC) isn't making TV commercials saying, "You're being used. They said Obamacare meant they'd come to kill your grandmother. They said global warming was fake. There's no shame in admitting you got taken. The shame is staying with them. Come home to the party that stands up for the middle class."

If you can get people to buy that message, the rest will be easier. Not guaranteed, just easier.
 
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Chew Toy McCoy

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Yup, they've been in a positive feedback loop and I have a difficult time seeing those switches flip back. They too have a difficult time seeing that...

It started when they got labeled deplorables and then Trump instead of telling them they aren’t deplorable he told them to embrace being deplorable and they went all in, what a relief that they didn’t need to do some soul searching. They get to just amplify what was already there.
 
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