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Huntn

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Excellent focus today on NPR’s Science Friday about the prospect of restoring coral reefs, using genetically altered coral better able to withstand warming oceans.

Meet The Scientists Reviving The World’s Fading Corals
Listen to the broadcast here:


Now here is the difference between this post and the one at the other place we visit frequently.... ;)
We are supposed to be an advanced civilization. We have experienced a string technological/industrial ages, and we now have enough knowledge to understand the impact of billions of people living on the Earth. So we know the Earth is warming, the oceans are warming, as we strip mine them of edible fish, and now we see the coral reefs dieing, and what do we do about it?

We pass treaties, climate treaties which are too little to late, plus our Big Fat Shit Head Ass Hole pulls the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement. :mad: Which brings to mind the Fermi Paradox which considers despite the probability that there should be a huge number of advance civilizations using the Drake Equation, yet we see no evidence of any civilizations.

The Fermi paradox, named after Italian-American physicist Enrico Fermi, is the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and various high estimates for their probability (such as some optimistic estimates for the Drake equation).

So what does it say about our species that we know we are harming the Earth, our home, possibly killing it, yet we are good with that or we can only bring ourselves to make superficial changes because it will interfere with our life style, and there will be no panic until the hammer falls and it’s too late? Or are we just stupid mammals unable to work together to make the tough choices we need to to save ourselves and are in the process of proving the Fermi Paradox? :unsure:

I figure I’ve got another 20 years maybe, so really this is an issue for our Millenials to grab by the horns, or maybe as a species, we are not that advanced, and just don‘t want to survive that badly.

I’d also like to hear the perceptions from our members who live outside the US. Does the human race have it’s shit together?
 
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Huntn

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Technically not a breakthrough at this point, but a new awareness, put VR goggles on a milk cow allowing them to see a nice green meadow and pipe in classical music, while they are actually trapped in a barn for the winter and they will produce more milk! :D

 

SuperMatt

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Technically not a breakthrough at this point, but a new awareness, put VR goggles on a milk cow allowing them to see a nice green meadow and pipe in classical musi, while they are actually trapped in a barn for the winter and they will produce more milk! :D

Just like “The Matrix” movies... maybe we will soon all be just like those cows.
 

thekev

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The Drake equation is just a model. It doesn't say there should be a huge number of civilizations unless you assign parameters that output such a result. Glancing down the page, others have refined the parameterization somewhat.
 
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The Drake equation is just a model. It doesn't say there should be a huge number of civilizations unless you assign parameters that output such a result. Glancing down the page, others have refined the parameterization somewhat.
Please clarify.

As long as I’ve known about it, the Drake Equation has been intriguing to me, especially combined with the Fermi Paradox, an interesting topic of speculation, nothing more, except the fuel for discussion, we observe in human beings, the case where an answer to a problem regarding our survival stares us in the face and we choose to thumb our nose at it because _______.
 

thekev

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Please clarify.

As long as I’ve known about it, the Drake Equation has been intriguing to me, especially combined with the Fermi Paradox, an interesting topic of speculation, nothing more, except the fuel for discussion, we observe in human beings, the case where an answer to a problem regarding our survival stares us in the face and we choose to thumb our nose at it because _______.

The equation itself is a proposed solution to determining the number of civilizations with which communication might be possible. It has several parameters, some of which can be estimated to a reasonable degree. We don't seem to have a lot of evidence to support any particular choice of estimates for

fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space

which are required to produce a concrete value for

N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);
 
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The equation itself is a proposed solution to determining the number of civilizations with which communication might be possible. It has several parameters, some of which can be estimated to a reasonable degree. We don't seem to have a lot of evidence to support any particular choice of estimates for



which are required to produce a concrete value for
I’ll suggest that if the numbers are in the billions, and we know some percentage of planets are in the livable zone, then the possibility exists. I have thought that the expanse is so incredibly large that we could easily be unaware of civilizations with the ability to communicate across the Cosmos just because they are so far away.

Yet we seem to be witnessing some support for the Fermi paradox right in front of our eyes. :unsure:
 

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I’ll suggest that if the numbers are in the billions, and we know some percentage of planets are in the livable zone, then the possibility exists. I have thought that the expanse is so incredibly large that we could easily be unaware of civilizations with the ability to communicate across the Cosmos just because they are so far away.

Yet we seem to be witnessing some support for the Fermi paradox right in front of our eyes. :unsure:

The equation only suggests a huge number of civilizations if the parameters used suggest it. I can follow it up until parameter L, which seems awfully optimistic to me. I assume time units are normalized between R* and L. The other parameters condition the ones preceding them. Also L would be even more optimistic if we're assuming 2 way communication here, where communication latency is a real thing. Google is giving me conflicting numbers for the distance from the earth to the edge of the Milky Way, but either way it's many thousands of light years.
 
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The equation only suggests a huge number of civilizations if the parameters used suggest it. I can follow it up until parameter L, which seems awfully optimistic to me. I assume time units are normalized between R* and L. The other parameters condition the ones preceding them. Also L would be even more optimistic if we're assuming 2 way communication here, where communication latency is a real thing. Google is giving me conflicting numbers for the distance from the earth to the edge of the Milky Way, but either way it's many thousands of light years.
What is reasonable?
 

thekev

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What is reasonable?

Whatever someone can support via evidence. Generally you would want someone else to be able to retrace your steps in arriving at any particular figure. Keep in mind this is still a pretty simple equation. It assumes that we have some number of civilizations broadcasting in all directions from somewhere in the Milky Way. It then uses the other parts to estimate in such a case, how many might be able to send out a message that would reach us. The further away they are, the higher the latency. Unlike packets over the internet, you're talking about years, centuries, or milleniums in each direction.
 
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Whatever someone can support via evidence. Generally you would want someone else to be able to retrace your steps in arriving at any particular figure. Keep in mind this is still a pretty simple equation. It assumes that we have some number of civilizations broadcasting in all directions from somewhere in the Milky Way. It then uses the other parts to estimate in such a case, how many might be able to send out a message that would reach us. The further away they are, the higher the latency. Unlike packets over the internet, you're talking about years, centuries, or milleniums in each direction.
I’m not saying Drake is fact or even theory, it’s according to wiki:
The equation was formulated in 1961 by Frank Drake, not for purposes of quantifying the number of civilizations, but as a way to stimulate scientific dialogue at the first scientific meeting on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence ...

You can be fairly pessimistic about the numbers and still come up with a large number of civilizations. And part of the Fermi paradox wants to know if I’m not mis-stating, why don’t we have any evidence of other civilizations? It’s all speculative and intriguing, nothing more, but I’ll stand by the notion that if you want to observe what could be the process of a civilization unable to not destroy itself, have a look at Planet Earth. :unsure: This is what I have been saying, nothing has been proven, and I accept your rejection of the entire idea. :)
 
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