The 2022 Midterms

[Herdfan]

We are a little over 6 months out and things are not looking good for the Dems. Here is former Clinton Pollster Mark Penn's assessment:

Voters are angry about half a dozen Democratic-fueled problems | National Review

America today is facing real, undeniable problems, and most of them are strongly associated with the Democratic Party.

www.nationalreview.com

 

[Eric]

Yeah, I don't think it will work out well for Democrats but it's not without historical precedence, typically the party in power goes down in the midterms unless things are gong really well, which they clearly aren't. It'll probably be similar to the midterms under Obama where he lost both houses.

I think we look beyond that to 2024 and see how things look for the party. It will be interesting to see what Biden chooses to do, it's a hard fight for anyone in that age group.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

The establishment Democrats got exactly what they asked for in a Biden presidency and they will be punished appropriately as a result.

It's one thing to lose to Trump and his minions when they were untested. It takes a special level of incompetence to lose to them after they've proven who they are.

To make things worse, the Democrats have absolutely no Plan B to Biden in sight. Nobody to get excited about.

 

[Eric]

The establishment Democrats got exactly what they asked for in a Biden presidency and they will be punished appropriately as a result.

It's one thing to lose to Trump and his minions when they were untested. It takes a special level of incompetence to lose to them after they've proven who they are.

To make things worse, the Democrats have absolutely no Plan B to Biden in sight. Nobody to get excited about.

Out of curiosity, what could Biden (or any president) have done differently to stave off inflation, gas prices, and war on a global scale? IMO this is a pretty unfair criticism. It's the same reason Trump got voted out and whoever took over was screwed from the gate.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Out of curiosity, what could Biden (or any president) have done differently to stave off inflation, gas prices, and war on a global scale? IMO this is a pretty unfair criticism. It's the same reason Trump got voted out and whoever took over was screwed from the gate.

On the first 2 he could go after crisis profiteers HARD instead of just wagging his finger briefly and moving on.

Can you think of any major issue that the national Democrat party hasn't thrown in the towel already? Can you think of anything in their hopper that could improve their numbers before we vote? Here's going to be a fun kicker. Two months before voting some covid related healthcare cost reductions are going to expire and premiums will shoot up. That's going to be great for voters on the fence.

This reminds me of Obama's latest "don't expect much" campaign which is quite the downhill slide from "hope" that got him in office.

 

[ronntaylor]

Out of curiosity, what could Biden (or any president) have done differently to stave off inflation, gas prices, and war on a global scale? IMO this is a pretty unfair criticism. It's the same reason Trump got voted out and whoever took over was screwed from the gate.

Unfortunately reality escapes too many. A lot can happen in six months. And often does. But like others have said, the party in power almost always loses in the midterms. I'm not sure Dems will lose both houses, but we will see. I'm waiting to see if some bonehead actions will change the course of some races.

 

[SuperMatt]

We are a little over 6 months out and things are not looking good for the Dems. Here is former Clinton Pollster Mark Penn's assessment:

Voters are angry about half a dozen Democratic-fueled problems | National Review

America today is facing real, undeniable problems, and most of them are strongly associated with the Democratic Party.

www.nationalreview.com

I’m not sure the following (from the linked article) is true:

Americans think the economy is weak, inflation is effectively giving them a major pay cut, the border is being overrun, criminals are roaming unchecked, Covid policy is a mess, Vladimir Putin is more dangerous than ever before, and political correctness amounts to a national gag order.

Anytime I see “Americans think” from an opinion piece, it’s the author projecting their thoughts onto others that may or may not share them. And does anybody still use the term “political correctness” anymore? Plus, Putin is demonstrably weaker than he was a few months ago.

As for the linked piece in The NY Times, I read that and it’s a bit more reasonable. However, I’m not sure a Clinton election strategist has a leg to stand on, as he seems to think “tough on crime” is the strategy Biden should use. We are still seeing the tragic effects of Bill Clinton’s crime policies today.

Finally, early polls are often highly fallible. The biggest reason for their fallibility is that you don’t have an opponent yet. He might have low numbers, but once there is an actual challenger, you will be looking at relative popularity, not just overall approval.

For the midterms, 2010 went very heavily for the Republicans after Obama’s first 2 years. But then after 2 years of the GOP reminding everybody what a bunch of nincompoops they are, Obama got a second term. Maybe THAT history will repeat itself?

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Anytime I see “Americans think” from an opinion piece, it’s the author projecting their thoughts onto others that may or may not share them.

There’s also the “most Americans” myth. “Most Americans” conjures up an image of a reasonably stable middle class family with some kind of nest egg they don’t want touched. Everything about that doesn’t describe most Americans. I don’t care what people’s social circle looks like, by just about every metric that doesn’t describe most Americans, and I shouldn’t have to say this, but the reality is most Americans aren’t doing as well as that middle of road image. It’s also convenient that when “most Americans” are cited as a source it's referring to them being a big fan of the status quo.

 

[GermanSuplex]

It’s a win/win for republicans. If they win, they can claim it’s a repudiation of democrats, progressives and the Biden admin. If they lose, they’ll just claim it’s further proof of unrelenting and widespread voter fraud.

I have a feeling there will be lots of infighting and issues even if they win both chambers. I’d love to see them do a lot worse than they anticipate, but the dynamics are such that republicans don’t need that many votes to win. A senate seat is a senate seat regardless of whether it’s won in California or Montana, and while both parties are guilty of gerrymandering, some of the Republican house seat districts that have been drawn are ridiculous in their blatant attempt to dilute black and brown votes.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Been hearing a lot about this.

Progressive Caucus goes full "PINO": Why dumping Nina Turner is a turning point | Salon.com

The Progressives have been assimilated. So, epic win for moderates who are big fans of nothing ever getting done, be at the hands of toothless Democrats who never play hardball or Republicans’ blanket obstruction of everything without debate. Must be nice to be part of the ever dwindling number of Americans who are doing just fine. I’m sure you won’t get caught in the crosshairs of political violence.

I probably naively feel safe from the ever growing move towards authoritarianism living in CA, but I’m sure the good voters of Kentucky will do their best to bring it to my front door at the federal level.

I’m not really shocked by the “win some/lose some” outlook apathy because that’s what we’re used to, but even when out of majority power the Republicans are actively pursuing measures and policies that make sure Democrats are more frequently on the “lose some” side of the equation. What do you think will happen when they have majority power?

 

[ronntaylor]

Nina Turner was a joke of a candidate in the special election. It would have been beyond stupid to support her in this district for 2022. She has proven that she doesn't have it to win with her stated policies. She also turned off a ton of people that could have helped her in the past. With the balance of power on shaky ground, now is not the time for emotions. It's all about getting shit done. Which means keeping seats in Dem hands and winning seats from GOP districts that are vulnerable.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Nina Turner was a joke of a candidate in the special election. It would have been beyond stupid to support her in this district for 2022. She has proven that she doesn't have it to win with her stated policies. She also turned off a ton of people that could have helped her in the past. With the balance of power on shaky ground, now is not the time for emotions. It's all about getting shit done. Which means keeping seats in Dem hands and winning seats from GOP districts that are vulnerable.

On the federal level getting shit done is no longer on speaking terms with Democrats. Republicans get shit done, albeit shit most people don’t like and possibly illegally. Democrats just offer excuses culminating in Obama’s “Don’t expect much” which is admittedly less abrasive than the former “Get a college degree or STFU”. Coincidently Biden ran on some form of eliminating college debt and free college, but again, that falls under getting shit done, which again, isn’t in Democrats’ wheelhouse. So “don’t expect much” is probably the most accurate slogan to date.

 

[ronntaylor]

On the federal level getting shit done is no longer on speaking terms with Democrats.

Dems passed additional stimulus at the start of their total control of both houses. Passed Federal Child Tax Credit that pulled millions of children out of poverty. Unlike the previous administration, they passed Infrastructure: the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act which will be billions of dollars and millions of jobs. Shit done.

Republicans get shit done,

Is that "On the federal level" or state level? I can't seem to remember what besides their passing of tax cuts for the super wealthy and earlier stimulus that lined the pockets of large corps/thieves with little oversight.

Democrats just offer excuses culminating in Obama’s “Don’t expect much”

Obama hasn't been president for more than five years.

Coincidently Biden ran on some form of eliminating college debt and free college, but again, that falls under getting shit done, which again, isn’t in Democrats’ wheelhouse.

And he's eliminated college debt for some, while working to exponentially increase debt relief for lots more.

So overall, Dems getting shit done. It's not pie in the sky shit from Bernie, who has never gotten shit done and is probably, fingers crossed, done on a national level.

 

[ronntaylor]

The right ruling based on New York's constitution. But probably a death knell to Dem control of the US House of Reps after November

Democrats Lose Control of N.Y. Election Maps, as Top Court Rejects Appeal

The Court of Appeals said Democrats violated the State Constitution and ignored the will of the voters. The judges ordered a court-appointed expert to draw replacements.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Dems passed additional stimulus at the start of their total control of both houses. Passed Federal Child Tax Credit that pulled millions of children out of poverty. Unlike the previous administration, they passed Infrastructure: the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act which will be billions of dollars and millions of jobs. Shit done.


Is that "On the federal level" or state level? I can't seem to remember what besides their passing of tax cuts for the super wealthy and earlier stimulus that lined the pockets of large corps/thieves with little oversight.


Obama hasn't been president for more than five years.


And he's eliminated college debt for some, while working to exponentially increase debt relief for lots more.

So overall, Dems getting shit done. It's not pie in the sky shit from Bernie, who has never gotten shit done and is probably, fingers crossed, done on a national level.

Further Covid stimulus relief was a continuation of what Trump already did. Republicans had to object because they reflexively have to object to everything Democrats do, but passing it wasn’t exactly a Herculean task. The child tax credit is toast and those kids are plopped right back into poverty. Republicans were pissed Trump didn’t try to pass an infrastructure bill, not only popular, but also a massive corruption money grab bag for their donors in the industries, both parties. Republicans only had to put up a stink reflexively but given the corruption opportunities quickly backed down.

To be clear, on the federal level Republicans successfully blocking legislation is getting shit done by their definition. But they also didn’t need to do a damn thing in this case. They have a couple Democrats doing the dirty work for them. This freed them up to spend their time on state legislation and future vote rigging. They seem to be wildly successful at that. Of course there are anti-Trump Republicans in office but they quickly get steamrolled. By contrast the Anti-Biden agenda Democrats are given outsized power.

At Obama’s resent white house visit he jokingly referred to Biden as the vice president which got big laughs and was a massive slap in the face to Biden. Then everybody fawned all over Obama while leaving Biden to meander around aimlessly. So saying Obama is no longer relevant because how long he hasn’t been President is like saying neither is Trump. The big difference is Trump can run again. Democrats would run Obama again in a heartbeat if they could. Obama still has huge cache with the party and when he says “don’t expect much” people listen. I’d even argue given the choice people would listen more to Obama now over Biden as President. I actually feel bad for Biden in this respect. If Obama walks in there is this air of “Oh, a real leader just entered the room.”

To be honest, I haven’t really heard much on Biden’s college debt relief other than its nowhere near what he ran on. I will look into it more though.

We’ll see, but I don’t see voters sharing your enthusiasm about national Democrat accomplishments when voting time arrives.

 

[Herdfan]

The right ruling based on New York's constitution. But probably a death knell to Dem control of the US House of Reps after November

Democrats Lose Control of N.Y. Election Maps, as Top Court Rejects Appeal

The Court of Appeals said Democrats violated the State Constitution and ignored the will of the voters. The judges ordered a court-appointed expert to draw replacements.

www.nytimes.com

Too gerrymandered? I would swear only Republicans did that.

Couldn't read the linked article, but a few I did read (not FoxNews just FYI) seemed to use phrases like:

drawn with an unconstitutional partisan intent

and

after a lower court of appeals ruled last week that state Democrats unconstitutionally attempted to redraw the districts to favor their candidates and to push the GOP out of potentially several seats.

Just an FYI in case anyone needs to know, all 7 judges were appointed by Democrat Governors and 6 of the 7 are Democrats.

 

[Herdfan]

Then everybody fawned all over Obama while leaving Biden to meander around aimlessly.

I wonder if you will receive the same treatment I did when I posted this?

 

[SuperMatt]

Too gerrymandered? I would swear only Republicans did that.

Couldn't read the linked article, but a few I did read (not FoxNews just FYI) seemed to use phrases like:



and



Just an FYI in case anyone needs to know, all 7 judges were appointed by Democrat Governors and 6 of the 7 are Democrats.

It is good to see when judges stand for the law and on principle, even if members of their own party wish it otherwise.

When it comes to gerrymandering, there should be a constitutional amendment ending it.

In Wisconsin in 2018, 44.7% of people voted for Republicans. The result? 64.6% majority of Republicans in the legislature. That is banana republic level bullshit.

59 million Americans live under minority rule in their state. That is unacceptable. It boggles the mind that the Supreme Court ruled in 2019 in such a way that made it even worse.

 

[Herdfan]

It is good to see when judges stand for the law and on principle, even if members of their own party wish it otherwise.

When it comes to gerrymandering, there should be a constitutional amendment ending it.

In Wisconsin in 2018, 44.7% of people voted for Republicans. The result? 64.6% majority of Republicans in the legislature. That is banana republic level bullshit.

59 million Americans live under minority rule in their state. That is unacceptable. It boggles the mind that the Supreme Court ruled in 2019 in such a way that made it even worse.

While I agree with what you are saying in principal, the votes totals and percentages in and among themselves don't necessarily mean anything untoward is going on.

 

[SuperMatt]

While I agree with what you are saying in principal, the votes totals and percentages in and among themselves don't necessarily mean anything untoward is going on.

Um what? You were apparently upset enough about NY gerrymandering to post an article about it, but if it is a far worse gerrymander in Wisconsin, you’re ok with it?