The 2022 Midterms

Citysnaps

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But he lumped everyone on the right as a radical MAGA Republican. That simply is not the case anymore than everyone on the left is a SQUAD Dem.

No...

When Biden gave his speech denouncing trump's MAGA Republicans as extremists who threaten the foundations of the republic, he followed up with this:

“Not every Republican — not even the majority of Republicans — are MAGA Republicans. Not every Republican embraces their extreme ideology. I know because I’ve been able to work with these mainstream Republicans.”

I think it's pretty clear who Biden was targeting. Certainly not conservatives, people on the right, or Republicans in general.
 

Joe

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Chew Toy McCoy

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A couple things at play. The Democrat party actively did what they could with money and votes to assure that the most insane Trump candidate won their primary. Now that they've won the establishment Republican party has little interest in supporting these candidates. Similarly, Trump only wants to keep his political war chest for himself. Last I heard the only money he parted with towards other candidates was against Liz Cheney. Money well spent I guess and clearly because of a vendetta, period. So now you have these barely supported Trump clowns trying to dial back how insane they are. It will be interesting to see if any of this matters in the final results.
 

lizkat

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A couple things at play. The Democrat party actively did what they could with money and votes to assure that the most insane Trump candidate won their primary. Now that they've won the establishment Republican party has little interest in supporting these candidates. Similarly, Trump only wants to keep his political war chest for himself. Last I heard the only money he parted with towards other candidates was against Liz Cheney. Money well spent I guess and clearly because of a vendetta, period. So now you have these barely supported Trump clowns trying to dial back how insane they are. It will be interesting to see if any of this matters in the final results.

Interesting GOP and Dem points in the piece that you had cited:

Ken Spain, a GOP strategist, believes it is "kind of silly at this stage" for Republican nominees to be scrubbing their websites of their own positions.

Spain told the Beast, "Unfortunately for all candidates, the internet lives forever. At this point, it's too late to run away from who you are."

Tommy Garcia, a Democratic National Committee (DNC) spokesperson, believes it is disingenuous for Republicans to downplay their positions.

Garcia told the Beast, "MAGA Republicans have made their extreme positions clear — there is no going back just because they have all of a sudden realized that they are out of touch with voters. Voters know exactly who these cowardly candidates are."

The thing is (and flashing forward to after the upcoming midterms) actual voters may have known who the candidates were and what they stood for at a given time, or were perceived as standing for... but pre-election POLL RESPONDENTS ? Very possibly not so much, or at least maybe not to an extent the pollsters can capture as they home in on the horse race over the next five weeks.

So once again pollsters are anxious about whether they have sufficiently corrected methodology used the last couple times out, when they admit they botched polls in some races by under-representing final Republican turnout during the polling season.


After 2016, pollsters said the problem was their samples included too few voters without college degrees. The polls were better for the 2018 midterms, though they were still too Democratic on balance. Then came 2020 — which was worse than 2016, and for which pollsters have yet to settle on a definitive explanation of what precisely went wrong. As a result, an easy fix has proven elusive. But pollsters have mostly agreed that, particularly in 2020, the surveys missed a chunk of Trump’s voters who refused to participate in polls.

The current 2022 polling is wildly favorable for Democrats. FiveThirtyEight’s “lite” prediction model, which is based solely on the latest polling data, says Democrats have a 79 percent chance to retain control of the Senate. That probability clashes with the expectations of both parties and most independent handicappers, who consider the battle for the chamber to be closer to a coin flip.

Pollsters also struggle with the fact that pro-Trump voters cannot reliably be lumped in with "Republican" responses:

Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, said he is being “as careful as careful can be” to increase the share of Trump voters, both in their sampling (who gets called to participate) and weighting (making them count for more after the interviews are conducted in order to fix their underrepresentation). It’s not enough, Levy said, to just call more Republicans, since it’s a specific kind of Republican whom they are struggling to reach.

“It’s not partisan nonresponse. It’s hardened Trump-backer nonresponse,” said Levy. “A small majority of those are self-identified Republicans, but a significant number of them are self-identified independents or Democrats. You can’t correct that by saying, ‘Let’s weight up the Republicans.’ That doesn’t work.”

Personally I think the pollsters really have had their work cut out for them this year. This is a midterm after a redistricting, and after some special elections --some of which were for redistricted seats!-- that may or may not have captured the mood ahead for the actual congressional elections.

Throw in an ex-president far, far more visibly and politically active than our other former presidents have been in modern times. Throw in the fact that that guy is also in legal jeopardy and that his fans buy into the idea that he's being persecuted... but that some of the candidates he has endorsed don't even mention him any more in their ads or speeches.

To tweak polling for results of primaries and special elections in those circumstances seems dicey, never mind the "special effects" due to Trump. Also the pollsters still do struggle to capture more accurately the policy stances and likelihood of Republicans overall (and the pro-Trump subset) to show up at the voting booth, especially since Trump voters tend to refuse to participate in polls or just don't answer their phones, but possibly because in 2020 the party did not adopt any platform at all except to support Trump... even though it was making inroads in the court system that favored long time GOP platform planks including anti-abortion measures.

Finally, in 2022 there are special one-off features of the overall political landscape that are hard to figure with respect to overriding influence on potential voters: inflation, the Dobbs SCOTUS decision, the uncertain net effect of DeSantis' relocation of immigrants, the whole Mar-a-Lago documents mess, and now a populous state smacked hard by a hurricane landing in an unusual area, with the residents welcoming a quickly provided federal disaster declaration, but its congressional delegation meanwhile voting lockstep against bumps to FEMA funding -- on grounds the rest of the particular funding bill was "wasteful"...

So much emphasis on Florida in that set of factors, and yet one cannot discount effect on voters reading about all that as residents elsewhere. I'd not be a politician for all the tea in China, but even less would I want to be a pollster in 2022.
 

GermanSuplex

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There's also a good argument being made by republicans that democrats interfered in the elections by promoting far-right candidates. In Illinois, Pritzker spent a good deal of his campaign money (and a large part of that is his own money) to promote far-right candidate for governor Darren Bailey. The funny thing, they promoted him by speaking the truth. They would send out mailers with things like "Trump Conservative Darren Bailey is bad for Illinois. He's anti-abortion and supports the Trump agenda". Of course, that is going to enamor him to a majority of republicans, not put them off. And he won the primary by a wide margin, though it could be argued that he would have won anyways. His two biggest primary opponents were a carpetbagger and a fake conservative mayor of Aurora who couldn't answer a simple question.

So while democrats probably shouldn't have been spending money helping to nominate people they're staunchly against, republicans aren't leaning too hard into that valid argument because the majority of their voters support these candidates. Not to mention, doing so would be an admission that they also feel the nominees are unqualified.

Funnily enough, we had another candidate for statewide office who couldn't even admit if he voted for Trump. In deep-red states and wing districts, Trump is a non-factor and probably a huge boost to candidates, but he's a huge liability everywhere else, and republicans don't know how to reconcile the fact that their biggest asset is also their biggest liability.

Either way, its going to be an interesting next few months to see what happens and the fallout.
 

lizkat

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Funnily enough, we had another candidate for statewide office who couldn't even admit if he voted for Trump. In deep-red states and wing districts, Trump is a non-factor and probably a huge boost to candidates, but he's a huge liability everywhere else, and republicans don't know how to reconcile the fact that their biggest asset is also their biggest liability.

Some R candidates have lately scrubbed their websites and stump speeches of references to either Trump or abortion... maybe leaving only a picture of Trump at one of their own rallies somewhere for those who care to check that it's there.

The combo of current and recent events plus a midterm being run right after redistricting has people and pollsters more off balance in some areas then they might otherwise be, even in a lingering "post-2016" environment that's both polarized and volatile.

For my money, the Rs should also quit talking about "crime." I mean it's not a good look when their party has a nominal head facing criminal investigations and followers going to the slam for breaking laws from trespass to assault and sedition.

I went to look up a YouTube music video the other night and encountered a Democratic National Commitee ad that was mocking a GOP congressional candidate for even mentioning the word "crime" in his own ads!​

The Rs want to defund the DoJ but then talk about ramping up law enforcement, this in lieu of helping figure out how to do stuff like intervene constructively in an under-regulated housing market (yeah, again). That sector currently is selling whole developments of houses in bulk and at discounts to venture capitalists, who figure that although the Fed's rate hikes have reduced consumer interest in new home mortgages at higher rates, the housing rental market is very tight and is therefore definitely ripe to be milked. With homelessness, comes increased crime. Right, let's enforce laws against homeless people while we figure how to keep from losing money in the housing sector?!

Meanwhile the senior leadership of the GOP take the stony silence road and ignore all the seriously criming sort of elephants in their living room entirely.

Oh was there an insurrection? That was just a protest, right? Free speech! Oh did some of us vote not to certify national electoral results in an election certified by all 50 states? Well Biden was eventually sworn in, right? Was there some evidence of extortion and incitement to violence in those two Trump impeachments, can't even remember, think it was all politics and so a witch hunt... and who hasn't inflated the value of a property now and then to impress a few pals, really, just get over it... and as for missing documents, well stuff gets mislaid all the time, right, like everyone puts their car keys down in some stupid place once in awhile.
I just hope registered Democrats don't make any assumptions about anything this year, just make sure the reggie is in order and show up to vote in November. Let the polls say whatever they say. Let the newspapers do their horse race pieces. Only votes count -- and the enforceable right to cast one. Time to chip in to the ACLU again so they have plenty lawyers on hand on election day and thereafter...
 

GermanSuplex

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For my money, the Rs should also quit talking about "crime." I mean it's not a good look when their party has a nominal head facing criminal investigations and followers going to the slam for breaking laws from trespass to assault and sedition.

I went to look up a YouTube music video the other night and encountered a Democratic National Commitee ad that was mocking a GOP congressional candidate for even mentioning the word "crime" in his own ads!​

Crime is still mentioned by Bailey here in Illinois, but that’s only because it’s home to Chicago, currently in a race for SanFran as the favorite punching bag of republicans. The problems for Bailey, of course are that crime isn’t polling high on the list of concerns for voters in Illinois (Inflations/Economy, democracy and abortion rights all poll higher), it’s a blue state where dems only need Chicago and it’s suburbs to win, and Pritzker crushed it in his first term - four balanced budgets, paying down our backlog of bills, getting IL it’s first credit rating upgrade in years, legalized marijuana, enshrining abortion laws…

Bailey is going to lose badly, but his conundrum isn’t unique, it’s just a more extreme example.

What will worry me is if total nut jobs win statewide races. Herschel Walker is polling way higher than I would have imagined. I’m also interested in the PA Governor’s race… I’d like to see a nut like Mastriano lose by five points (ideally 70 or 80 points), but if it’s within a percentage point or two, that’s going to worry me.
 

Herdfan

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Some R candidates have lately scrubbed their websites and stump speeches of references to either Trump or abortion... maybe leaving only a picture of Trump at one of their own rallies somewhere for those who care to check that it's there.

But really how is that any different than Dems running away from Biden?
 

Herdfan

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What democratic candidate is “running away” from Biden?








Let me know when you have read all these and I'll post some more. And please note, not a single Fox, Breitbart, NewsMax or OAN link.
 

Herdfan

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For my money, the Rs should also quit talking about "crime." I mean it's not a good look when their party has a nominal head facing criminal investigations and followers going to the slam for breaking laws from trespass to assault and sedition.


But that "crime" isn't affecting people's daily lives. Being afraid to go out of your house or to the mall or dinner is what is on people's minds. R's win over D's every time on that one.
 

lizkat

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But really how is that any different than Dems running away from Biden?

Some of the Republican candidates now running away from Trump were formerly playing up their support of Trump, his support for them, or both. Trump's luck in courts lately has not been great and some of the possible charges or outcomes are unflattering, and some of Trump's public reactions have not done him any favors either, even among nominal followers. So now some R candidates just want to talk about crime, inflation and depending on state and local politics, also immigration.

Even Rs in "safe districts" need to draw in indie votes (or conservative Dems) to offset typically lower turnout across the board in midterms. There is another and more variable reason to leave Trump out of stump speeches in certain districts or even state wide races: some candidates have had ad buys pulled by Republican national committee(s) and as a result may have hoped to draw in some indie donor money. Can't count on that necessarily if going around talking up loyalty to Donald Trump.


In the case of Biden, the Dem candidates in swing districts are most likely to put daylight between themselves and Biden because

1) midterms are like that for the candidates of the party currently in the White House, i.e. the midterm votes typically reduce congressional strength of that party, so in trying to deter that, the candidates of that party may home in on state or regional issues rather than those associated to the WH agenda

2) right-leaning voters in the swing districts in 2022 do point the finger at Biden over inflation (also a typical voter move regardless of party when there is inflation).
 

lizkat

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But that "crime" isn't affecting people's daily lives. Being afraid to go out of your house or to the mall or dinner is what is on people's minds. R's win over D's every time on that one.

The crime and corruption of Donald Trump are such as can permanently affect every living soul in America and all their descendants. This guy fancies himself a president for life, does not believe the rule of law applies to him and has persuaded the entire Republican party that rules don't matter either, so long as the GOP are the ones not-criming per their own determinations.

Everyone should be talking about the transgressions and the fricken teflon (so far) of a former president who attempted at length and with fervor to prevent the peaceful transfer of power by forestalling and then actually interfering with the related constitutionally mandated processes.

I'll never understand why the guy --the Chief Inciter!-- wasn't tossed in the pokey right after the insurrection. He was transfixed by the incursion, refused to intercede in the violence for hours on end, took the same reluctant, dour "they're making me make this video" approach to disavowing violence as he did when he first commented on the Charlottesville incident. But this wasn't just an exhibition of preference for white supremacists. This was a guy who had been thrilled that his followers had charged the Capitol and tried to prevent the accession of a duly elected successor.

He's a high-maintenance naked emperor at best, a criminal and a traitor at worst and was never fit to be a US President. Just by the Republicans so long tolerating his example of narcissistic and authoritarian leadership, they have helped spawn a collection of mini-Trumps waiting in the wings for the old man to kick off, apparently hoping that one of them is both savvier at legislative politics and as apparently charismatic as Trump himself has been viewed by his own followers.

There isn't anyone more a threat to democracy on this planet past Trump, or China's Xi. I'd include Putin but he has made mistakes that will cost his country decades or longer to recover equivalent power, and he wasn't even starting from parity. The rest of this world's tinpot dictators are worrisome but you could ask democratic leaders around the world if they breathe easier with Trump not in the White House and get a fervent yes in response. It's not just the criming, it's the impulsivity and the self-obsession.

If we can't put Trump in the rear view, preferably with a little jail time to make a point, and send his wannabe replacements to the back benches for fifty years, the USA has just slid too far down the way towards entertaining ourseves to death, by treating it all as just some kind of reality show.
 

ronntaylor

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Talk about an October Surprise. I wonder if this (and the debates) will give Warnock some breathing room. Although GQP voters don't care about hypocrisy and incompetence and most will still vote for Walker.

Sassy Walker.jpeg
 

lizkat

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Talk about an October Surprise. I wonder if this (and the debates) will give Warnock some breathing room. Although GQP voters don't care about hypocrisy and incompetence and most will still vote for Walker.

View attachment 18176

That guy has put himself through some changes since his father first announced his run for office.
 

ronntaylor

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Herschel should probably sit down for two or three days

Silence dude.jpeg

Although I'm sure Oz wants him to keep at it


[ ... ] as whistleblower and veterinarian Catherine Dell’Orto told a Philadelphia outlet last month, “When your name is on the experiment, and the way the experiment is designed inflicts such cruelty to these animals, by design, there’s a problem.
 
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