ICE Vehicles: General topics

[SuperMatt]

A YouTube video? From the UK? Really?

Did you not 4 hours ago post that reputable news outlets verify their stories through multiple sources before publishing... that’s why they are reputable.

Is Free Speech All That It is Cracked Up To Be?

Really good reporting on National Public Radio (NPR) about a new book that examines Facebook policies. Most interesting was Zuckerberg’s hardcore Free Speech stance backing the right of Holicost deniers on FB to express themselves and then being surprised with the increase in denial of the...

talkedabout.com

And you link a Youtube video wiith a whopping 1,105 views. There would be 20 posts bashing my source had I done that.



I think I will go with Reuters and The New York Times:

EV rollout will require huge investments in strained U.S. power grids

During several days of brutal cold in Texas, the city of Austin saw its fleet of 12 new electric buses rendered inoperative by a statewide power outage. That problem will be magnified next year, when officials plan to start purchasing electric-powered vehicles exclusively.

www.reuters.com

Electric Cars Are Coming, and Fast. Is the Nation’s Grid Up to It? (Published 2021)

GM’s decision this week to phase out gasoline vehicles is the latest in a major shift that will mean drastic new demands on electric utilities. Here are four things that will need to happen.

www.nytimes.com

To be fair, there are also articles by reputable sources that say the opposite. But Forbes is kind of a right-wing source, so feel free to dismiss it.

EVs Are Not A Problem For The Electric Grid, They Are The Solution

Electric vehicles won't cause the electricity grid to collapse. In fact, they could make it run more smoothly than ever before. Here's why.

www.forbes.com

So I think the correct answer is we simply don't know.

I do know. The grid will not collapse because of EV adoption. You can quote me on it and hold me to it. The simple math of how often people replace their cars is all it takes to figure this out. The average age of a car on the road today is over 12 years.

Average Age of Vehicles on the Road Rises above 12 Years

Vehicles on the road continue getting older, a study from IHS Markit found, even as new car sales recover from last year's pandemic-induced decline.

www.caranddriver.com

Adoption will be slow, with more than enough time for additional sources of electricity to be brought online. Even the most pessimistic report you listed showed electricity use doubling… in 30 years! Also, that same article (Reuters) pointed out that America has had hundreds of billions of kWh in excess electricity generated every year.

The Boston Consulting Group, which gave some of the high-end (I think slightly unrealistic) projections of energy usage also are very optimistic about things. They have an entire lengthy report about it with some of the numbers included in the Reuters article:

The Costs of Revving Up the Grid for Electric Vehicles

Utilities must upgrade the grid to handle demand from electric vehicles. The catch? They must avoid driving customer rates through the roof in the process.

www.bcg.com

 

[DT]

I do know. The grid will not collapse because of EV adoption. You can quote me on it and hold me to it. The simple math of how often people replace their cars is all it takes to figure this out. The average age of a car on the road today is over 12 years.

Right. Because ...

Adoption will be slow, with more than enough time for additional sources of electricity to be brought online.

Right (again )

The doomsayers want to combine the existing infrastructure with every single vehicle instantly (magically ...) being swapped for an EV overnight. It's an incremental process of adoption + expansion.

 

[quagmire]

Bought the acceleration boost. Holy crap is the car fast(er) now. Got a nice kick in the pants and got that feeling back when going all out with the Camaro.

 

[Herdfan]

The doomsayers want to combine the existing infrastructure with every single vehicle instantly (magically ...) being swapped for an EV overnight. It's an incremental process of adoption + expansion.

How can you, or anyone, be sure expansion will occur? CA can't keep the lights on without rolling brownouts and TX, well I think there was an entire thread at MR about how bad their grid was.

So I think that the idea the the grid will expand fast enough to keep up with adoption is optimistic. Plus, I don't know you can completely rely on the 12 year average without some demographic data.

 

[User.168]

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[Herdfan]

Cheap rate overnight when everybody is sleeping and the demand on the grid is low == problem solved for quite a while

Yeah, we don't have that. We pay 11.4c kW no matter the time of day.

 

[User.168]

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[SuperMatt]

What I meant is that implementing such tariff plans would be a super easy way for energy companies to incentivise people into habits that would not put a strain on the grid.

UK energy companies are already offering such energy plans.

View attachment 7314

It makes sense since with an electric car you can schedule the charging times.

Many energy providers in America offer cheap rates at night, and special deals for EV owners. I guess not in West Virginia (yet). Some states seem to actively work against EV adoption, while others offer lower off-peak electricity rates, nice tax breaks for buying them and/or installing a home charger.

 

[DT]

Bought the acceleration boost. Holy crap is the car fast(er) now. Got a nice kick in the pants and got that feeling back when going all out with the Camaro.

It's fun you got a few weeks of seat time before you upgraded, so you got a really good sense of the difference. The 980 motors in the P, as I understand it, are only running about 80% of their max output, I'm still hoping for a P+ option for my car, unlock those to about 90-92% when in a special mode (like maybe Track Mode), I need a good solid sub-3 second 0-60

So I think that the idea the the grid will expand fast enough to keep up with adoption is optimistic.

I wouldn't call it optimistic so much as "positively pragmatic" There will some stumbling, it will take time to sync the supply/demand, but I expect the outcome to be successful. It's not unlike the concern over internet infrastructure from decades ago, the internet is going to crash! There's going to be privatized segments like toll roads! And, well, none of that happened.

Plus, I'm wearing a computer on my wrist, so yeah, maybe I am a bit optimistic

Cheap rate overnight when everybody is sleeping and the demand on the grid is low == problem solved for quite a while

Many energy providers in America offer cheap rates at night, and special deals for EV owners. I guess not in West Virginia (yet). Some states seem to actively work against EV adoption, while others offer lower off-peak electricity rates, nice tax breaks for buying them and/or installing a home charger.

Absolutely, while it's not offered in many places __today__, I suspect it will be. Heck, even here in Flori-duh, there's an option for TOU (Time Of Use) rates, our fixed rate is $0.10/kWh, TOU is $0.20 between 6a-10a and 6p-10p, all other times it's $0.03.

I think Seb's second point is terrific too, some kind of incentive to charge off hours.

For those NITK, most EVs, and dozens of smart charging systems can do all sorts of optimized charging: specific times/days, rates, available power from non-grid sources (like solar), use data to determine best charge windows, etc.

__And__ as we move to better battery tech, i.e., longer range, higher capacity, faster charging, the time on the grid will start dropping too. Using today's tech, if my commute was 30 miles a day, even sticking with 20-80%, I could comfortably charge only every 4-5 days or so, or at my current 40a rate, I get 36 mi/hour, so that's like 50 minutes to maintain daily full capacity.

Now imagine twice that capacity, so charing every 2 weeks, or nightly for 20 minutes, or hitting up an 800v system on the way back from work where you "top off" in 5-6 minutes

 

[quagmire]

It's fun you got a few weeks of seat time before you upgraded, so you got a really good sense of the difference. The 980 motors in the P, as I understand it, are only running about 80% of their max output, I'm still hoping for a P+ option for my car, unlock those to about 90-92% when in a special mode (like maybe Track Mode), I need a good solid sub-3 second 0-60

I did end up getting a refund for it. Mostly due to impending expenses( insurance and vacation) that I want to use the money for, but it was a nice trial. I still intend to rebuy it down the road and definitely see its worth.

Makes sense the 980 isn't tapped out. It is the motor used in the Model S Plaid. But I think the Model 3 is limited by its battery and the juice it is able to provide to the motor. Maybe the 4680 can improve on that.

 

[JohnR]

Local Police Department bought a Tesla Model 3 a couple of weeks ago. It cost $3K more than the Ford Interceptor. They estimate using $1300 worth of power over the next three years vs almost $18K in gas. And that doesn't count all the other maintenance that gas engines require.

And that is fine where they are, about 4 miles from a coal fired generating plant. Not sure how some places are going to be able to support EV's when they can barely support the demand now.

We have a small city PD (Richmond KY) that bought one a couple of months ago and apparently bought a couple more recently. And there's a small city in Indiana that bought one about 2 years ago now. I am trying to convince our local chief that it's the way to go.

Someone on FB posted this response to a crash in KY: "what happens if all these vehicles are battery powered in hot weather? How do they get recharged or moved?"

It's amazing how little people know about EVs.

 

[SuperMatt]

We have a small city PD (Richmond KY) that bought one a couple of months ago and apparently bought a couple more recently. And there's a small city in Indiana that bought one about 2 years ago now. I am trying to convince our local chief that it's the way to go.

Someone on FB posted this response to a crash in KY: "what happens if all these vehicles are battery powered in hot weather? How do they get recharged or moved?"

It's amazing how little people know about EVs.

What if it rains? Won’t you get electrocuted? OMG the power grid will die if people buy EVs! I can’t drive 500 miles straight without stopping! And on and on.

 

[Herdfan]

I can’t drive 500 miles straight without stopping! And on and on.

I do wonder about that. I see Tesla's around here all the time with FL plates. That averages about 1000 miles for a car with a 200 mile range. Not sure I would want to make that trip.

 

[SuperMatt]

I do wonder about that. I see Tesla's around here all the time with FL plates. That averages about 1000 miles for a car with a 200 mile range. Not sure I would want to make that trip.

Almost every single time I see people skeptical about EVs, it’s this “road trip” scenario. If you are driving 500 mile road trips every week, maybe an EV isn’t for you? But 99% of driving is to/from work and errands in the local area.

I actually got an EV with 100-mile range because it was cheap and I realized it meets 99% of my needs. If I need to take a road-trip, I rent an ICE car. I come out way ahead on the deal. With so many EVs sporting 250+ miles of range, even people that live 50 miles from their job are still going to be just fine.

 

[User.168]

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[User.168]

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[Ulenspiegel]

Interesting report by Bank of America (link).

 

[Roller]

I leased a plug-in hybrid recently. Very satisfied so far — it's good to rarely have to visit a gas station. I did consider a Tesla, but there aren't any dealers here. I've also read there are still problems with body panels not being installed correctly at the factory.

BTW, GM is recalling Chevy Bolts because of a fire danger. Engineering / inventing safer batteries that have higher capacity will be a huge step forward for EVs.

 

[JohnR]

I do wonder about that. I see Tesla's around here all the time with FL plates. That averages about 1000 miles for a car with a 200 mile range. Not sure I would want to make that trip.

I have driven from Ky to Fl and back, Ky to Texas and back and both times it was very relaxing and enjoyable trip.

 

[JohnR]

I leased a plug-in hybrid recently. Very satisfied so far — it's good to rarely have to visit a gas station. I did consider a Tesla, but there aren't any dealers here. I've also read there are still problems with body panels not being installed correctly at the factory.

Are you in the US? If so, you can PM me which state if you want and I can hook you up with a local club that would gladly let you check out the different models.
As for the “panel gap”, I have none on mine and in our club I think 2-3 people took theirs in to get adjusted. I wouldn’t worry about it