United Airlines: Employee deaths dropped to zero after vaccine mandate

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Filed under positive news for a change, that and mandates work.


United Airlines: Employee deaths dropped to zero after vaccine mandate​

Since United Airlines' COVID-19 vaccine mandate went into effect last summer, no employee has died, CEO Scott Kirby said in a letter to employees.

Driving the news: Kirby said that prior to the vaccine mandate, "tragically, more than one United employee on average *per week* was dying from COVID,” but "we’ve now gone eight straight weeks with zero COVID-related deaths among our vaccinated employees."
 

AG_PhamD

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I didn’t realize this I until I googled it, but UAL in /2019 had around 96,000 employees. That’s a lot more than I expected.

Can’t say I’m surprised though. Despite the vaccines rapidly dwindling effectiveness against COVID infections, particularly with omicron, they still manage to do be very successful in preventing the worst possible outcomes.

Unfortunately, it’s entirely possible that the unvaccinated employees that quit or were terminated due to vax status have died in this same time period. I find always find easily preventable deaths so tragic. It’s beyond clear these vaccines have clinical merit and that their safety profile appears quite excellent. With something like 4B people globally receiving at least one dose and widespread dosing beginning just over a year ago (not to mention tens of thousands in studies before that), if there’s some major side effect that exists waiting to affect millions, it hasn’t reared its head yet.

I was shocked to hear that vaccinations among airline staff was even a controversial issue, especially with so many airline staff… I suppose vaccine hesitancy and rejection exists everywhere, medical field included, but requiring vaccinations for travel is pretty typical. With this industry so susceptible to being a vector of global disease transmission, you’d think the staff would take it more seriously.

I am curious of the employees that left their jobs due to the mandate, what percent are pilots and cabin crew, what percent work in the airport, and what percent work for corporate (not in planes or airports).
 

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I didn’t realize this I until I googled it, but UAL in /2019 had around 96,000 employees. That’s a lot more than I expected.

Can’t say I’m surprised though. Despite the vaccines rapidly dwindling effectiveness against COVID infections, particularly with omicron, they still manage to do be very successful in preventing the worst possible outcomes.

Unfortunately, it’s entirely possible that the unvaccinated employees that quit or were terminated due to vax status have died in this same time period. I find always find easily preventable deaths so tragic. It’s beyond clear these vaccines have clinical merit and that their safety profile appears quite excellent. With something like 4B people globally receiving at least one dose and widespread dosing beginning just over a year ago (not to mention tens of thousands in studies before that), if there’s some major side effect that exists waiting to affect millions, it hasn’t reared its head yet.

I was shocked to hear that vaccinations among airline staff was even a controversial issue, especially with so many airline staff… I suppose vaccine hesitancy and rejection exists everywhere, medical field included, but requiring vaccinations for travel is pretty typical. With this industry so susceptible to being a vector of global disease transmission, you’d think the staff would take it more seriously.

I am curious of the employees that left their jobs due to the mandate, what percent are pilots and cabin crew, what percent work in the airport, and what percent work for corporate (not in planes or airports).
Despite the vaccines rapidly dwindling effectiveness against COVID infections, particularly with omicron…what’s that? Vaccines don’t prevent infections per say, correct?
 

AG_PhamD

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Despite the vaccines rapidly dwindling effectiveness against COVID infections, particularly with omicron…what’s that? Vaccines don’t prevent infections per say,

If you ask the CDC in Fall 2021 or later, then you’d be right- vaccines now “stimulate an immune response against diseases”. They have forwarded this idea that understanding vaccination to imply disease prevention is some sort of fallacy.

I think many people in healthcare and science, myself included, find this to be the CDC manipulating expectations of the public.

I guess they have forgotten nearly every vaccine clinical trial’s primary endpoint is efficacy in preventing infection, including those for Moderna and Pfizer’s COVID vaccines. As you may remember, these products were originally about 95% effective* “effective” meaning preventing infection. [*in the alpha variant, before immunity wanes, which was not known as these trials were too short]

Vaccine:
Old: “a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease”
New: "a preparation that is used to stimulate the body's immune response against diseases”
Vaccinate:
Old: “the act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce immunity to a specific disease”
New: “the act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce production to a specific disease.”

Immunity (current):
“Protection from an infectious disease. If you are immune to a disease, you can be exposed to it without becoming infected.”

Reportedly the CDC changed the definitions so as not to imply vaccines are 100% effective. But no pharmaceutical product is ever assumed to be 100% effective. And I don’t know if any other drug class’ definition that includes language to inform that point.

(There is a class called “therapeutic vaccines” that they could argue their definition better encompasses, but that’s not the argument they made and these drugs are very much out of context. And to be fair the old definition is not great either.)

Based on the timing, I sense the CDC felt pressured to explain why these vaccines were not providing sustained immunity. Instead of admitting vaccine development is extremely complex and that this vaccine while imperfect, it still has tremendous benefits, they decided to change the definitions and concepts to meet their political needs. This is basically trying to lower the bar of expectations to mask the the reality that the vaccine is not as effective as it once was while pushing the current vaccine as the total solution to the pandemic… sadly it is not.

The suboptimal effects of the COVID vaccine (namely waning immunity with time and limited efficacy against the current virus) are not universal characteristics of vaccines as seems to be the impression. The reality is these issues are largely the result of two major root problems with the vaccines used:
1) They were developed for the Alpha variant are therefore are not optimized for omicron, a significantly mutated strain now dominant.
2) These mRNA vaccines do not have the sustained, full immunity we’d like. It’s evident we do not fully understand the mRNA technology and how it relates to the kinetics of the immune system- not surprising considering this is new tech (in terms of a mass market product)

Vaccine’s primary goal is preventing infection in the first place, followed by preventing community spread. Reducing disease severity in breakthrough cases usually is largely a free, convenient benefit but isn’t necessarily guaranteed in all vaccines. The flu vaccine is arguably an exception to this historically- and now COVID. But if you prevent the illness, the other benefits automatically follow.

Vaccines with low efficacy are the exception, not the norm. most are 90%+ effective (against infection)…
BA947502-435D-4B8C-A5F3-390DFC4C5A19.png

The vaccines on the very low end can mostly attributed to mutations, such as the Flu. It not because vaccine efficacy on a population scale is just some random roll of the dice. I’m sure you know the flu mutates faster than the vaccine can be developed.

It’s not that vaccines don’t necessarily provide infection protection… the truth is our vaccine at this point is subpar considering the current situation. Playing word games doesn’t change the reality.
 
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SuperMatt

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I think many people in healthcare and science, myself included, find this to be the CDC manipulating expectations of the public.
I’d like to see support for this statement. The main complaint I saw from doctors was when the CDC reduced the quarantine period to 5 days.

The rest of the post: you seem to contradict yourself many times, most notably when you claim the mRNA vaccine is a problem and doesn’t work as well as thought. However, you later point out that the flu mutates faster than the vaccine (not mRNA) can be developed. And you point out the various mutations of COVID-19. So it would stand to reason that the dip in effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines is the same reason the flu vaccine dips in effectiveness. You also have completely ignored the J&J vaccine, which is NOT mRNA, and also less effective than the mRNA vaccines.

Vaccine’s primary goal is preventing infection in the first place, followed by preventing community spread.
Vaccines don't prevent infection. They teach our immune system how to neutralize the infection. They can only prevent infection by stopping community spread. If everybody’s immune system is killing the virus, then it cannot spread. If it cannot spread, it cannot reproduce and it dies out.

In short, the CDC isn’t trying to fool anybody, and this post repeatedly misses its own points.
 

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If you ask the CDC in Fall 2021 or later, then you’d be right- vaccines now “stimulate an immune response against diseases”. They have forwarded this idea that understanding vaccination to imply disease prevention is some sort of fallacy.

I think many people in healthcare and science, myself included, find this to be the CDC manipulating expectations of the public.

I guess they have forgotten nearly every vaccine clinical trial’s primary endpoint is efficacy in preventing infection, including those for Moderna and Pfizer’s COVID vaccines. As you may remember, these products were originally about 95% effective* “effective” meaning preventing infection. [*in the alpha variant, before immunity wanes, which was not known as these trials were too short]

Vaccine:
Old: “a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease”
New: "a preparation that is used to stimulate the body's immune response against diseases”
Vaccinate:
Old: “the act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce immunity to a specific disease”
New: “the act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce production to a specific disease.”

Immunity (current):
“Protection from an infectious disease. If you are immune to a disease, you can be exposed to it without becoming infected.”

Reportedly the CDC changed the definitions so as not to imply vaccines are 100% effective. But no pharmaceutical product is ever assumed to be 100% effective. And I don’t know if any other drug class’ definition that includes language to inform that point.

(There is a class called “therapeutic vaccines” that they could argue their definition better encompasses, but that’s not the argument they made and these drugs are very much out of context. And to be fair the old definition is not great either.)

Based on the timing, I sense the CDC felt pressured to explain why these vaccines were not providing sustained immunity. Instead of admitting vaccine development is extremely complex and that this vaccine while imperfect, it still has tremendous benefits, they decided to change the definitions and concepts to meet their political needs. This is basically trying to lower the bar of expectations to mask the the reality that the vaccine is not as effective as it once was while pushing the current vaccine as the total solution to the pandemic… sadly it is not.

The suboptimal effects of the COVID vaccine (namely waning immunity with time and limited efficacy against the current virus) are not universal characteristics of vaccines as seems to be the impression. The reality is these issues are largely the result of two major root problems with the vaccines used:
1) They were developed for the Alpha variant are therefore are not optimized for omicron, a significantly mutated strain now dominant.
2) These mRNA vaccines do not have the sustained, full immunity we’d like. It’s evident we do not fully understand the mRNA technology and how it relates to the kinetics of the immune system- not surprising considering this is new tech (in terms of a mass market product)

Vaccine’s primary goal is preventing infection in the first place, followed by preventing community spread. Reducing disease severity in breakthrough cases usually is largely a free, convenient benefit but isn’t necessarily guaranteed in all vaccines. The flu vaccine is arguably an exception to this historically- and now COVID. But if you prevent the illness, the other benefits automatically follow.

Vaccines with low efficacy are the exception, not the norm. most are 90%+ effective (against infection)…
View attachment 11388

The vaccines on the very low end can mostly attributed to mutations, such as the Flu. It not because vaccine efficacy on a population scale is just some random roll of the dice. I’m sure you know the flu mutates faster than the vaccine can be developed.

It’s not that vaccines don’t necessarily provide infection protection… the truth is our vaccine at this point is subpar considering the current situation. Playing word games doesn’t change the reality.
If you ask the CDC in Fall 2021 or later, then you’d be right- vaccines now “stimulate an immune responseagainst diseases”. They have forwarded this idea that understanding vaccination to imply disease prevention is some sort of fallacy.

I thought this was true all along. A flu shot does not mean you won’t get the flu, it means if you contract the flu, your symptoms will be less because your body has antibodies ready to go, no?
 

AG_PhamD

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I’d like to see support for this statement. The main complaint I saw from doctors was when the CDC reduced the quarantine period to 5 days.

The rest of the post: you seem to contradict yourself many times, most notably when you claim the mRNA vaccine is a problem and doesn’t work as well as thought. However, you later point out that the flu mutates faster than the vaccine (not mRNA) can be developed. And you point out the various mutations of COVID-19. So it would stand to reason that the dip in effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines is the same reason the flu vaccine dips in effectiveness. You also have completely ignored the J&J vaccine, which is NOT mRNA, and also less effective than the mRNA vaccines.

I’m not sure most people are aware of this or would even care as the CDC’s definition has zero impact on how medicine is practiced. This is purely an academic argument.

I would agree that the the CDC’s wishy washy guidance on the isolation period caused a lot of confusion and in some cases outrage… and is a much more consequential issue.

I believe I said quite clearly that mutations are the reason why the current COVID vaccines have low efficacy against infection/disease. (Influenza mutates about 4x the rate of coronavirus and mRNA offers the ability to rapidly develop and manufacture new vaccines, the methods used for the flu vaccines are far more complicated. So it’s not an apples to apples comparison).

But my point was that vaccines when matched to the appropriate strain of X virus have a very high degree of success in preventing infection. And that’s the whole goal of vaccine development. For all intents and purposes your body doesn’t know the difference between a virus and vaccine that effectively mimics that virus.

I didn’t mention J&J in the interest of time. Most people go out of their way to avoid it, it requires a booster after two months, the risk of thromboctyopenia while rare is greater than mRNA and 15% more fatal, and it’s currently not recommend as a booster. And only 3.3% of all the vaccinations in the US have been J&J. There is some research suggesting it has a longer duration of effect, but I haven’t seen strong evidence for that.

Vaccines don't prevent infection. They teach our immune system how to neutralize the infection. They can only prevent infection by stopping community spread. If everybody’s immune system is killing the virus, then it cannot spread. If it cannot spread, it cannot reproduce and it dies out.

In short, the CDC isn’t trying to fool anybody, and this post repeatedly misses its own points
I’m quite aware of how vaccines work. I would my preferred definition is this:
a substance product used to stimulate the production of antibodies and provide immunity against one or several diseases, prepared from the causative agent of a disease, its products, or a synthetic substitute, treated to act as an antigen without inducing the disease.
Immunity is much more specific than “immune response”. Immunity typically implies prevention. Prevention is not absolute, it does not necessarily imply success. Oral contraceptives are said to “prevent” pregnancy but that does not mean they are 100% successful.

I assure you, the word prevention was never a controversial topic prior to now. Take a look at these FDA EUA’s

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to permit the emergency use of the unapproved product, Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, for active immunization to prevent COVID-19 in individuals 5 years of age and older.
…(EUA) for emergency use of Moderna COVID‐19 Vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19 for individuals 18 years of age and older, pursuant to Section 564 of the Act.

Let’s look at how some other FDA authorized indications are worded for vaccines:

Fluzone Quadrivalent​
For active immunization for the prevention of influenza disease caused by influenza virus subtypes A and type B viruses contained in the vaccine.​
Shingrix​
For prevention of herpes zoster (shingles) in adults aged 50 years and older.​
PNEUMOVAX 23​
For active immunization for the prevention of pneumococcal disease caused by the 23 serotypes contained in the vaccine (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 8, 9N, 9V, 10A, 11A, 12F, 14, 15B, 17F, 18C, 19F, 19A, 20, 22F, 23F, and 33F)​
Varivax (Chickenpox Vaccine)​
Active immunization for the prevention of varicella in individuals 12 months of age and older.​
Gardasil (HPV Vaccine)​
Indicated in girls and women 9 through 45 years of age for the prevention of the following diseases:​
Ervebo (Ebolavirus Vaccine)​
Indicated for the prevention of disease caused by Zaire ebolavirus in individuals 18 years of age and older.​

I guess someone better tell the FDA what vaccines are!

(Some indications do not use the word prevent/prevention, instead verbiage like “for immunization against”. This seems to be a minority and is does not appear correlated to when the vaccine was approved or what disease it is targeting- i.e. Flu vaccines, Fluzone uses “prevention” but Afluria says: “For active immunization against influenza disease…”)
 
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SuperMatt

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I’m not sure most people are aware of this or would even care as the CDC’s definition has zero impact on how medicine is practiced. This is purely an academic argument.

I would agree that the the CDC’s wishy washy guidance on the isolation period caused a lot of confusion and in some cases outrage… and is a much more consequential issue.

I believe I said quite clearly that mutations are the reason why the current COVID vaccines have low efficacy against infection/disease. (Influenza mutates about 4x the rate of coronavirus and mRNA offers the ability to rapidly develop and manufacture new vaccines, the methods used for the flu vaccines are far more complicated. So it’s not an apples to apples comparison).

But my point was that vaccines when matched to the appropriate strain of X virus have a very high degree of success in preventing infection. And that’s the whole goal of vaccine development. For all intents and purposes your body doesn’t know the difference between a virus and vaccine that effectively mimics that virus.

I didn’t mention J&J in the interest of time. Most people go out of their way to avoid it, it requires a booster after two months, the risk of thromboctyopenia while rare is greater than mRNA and 15% more fatal, and it’s currently not recommend as a booster. And only 3.3% of all the vaccinations in the US have been J&J. There is some research suggesting it has a longer duration of effect, but I haven’t seen strong evidence for that.


I’m quite aware of how vaccines work. I would my preferred definition is this:

Immunity is much more specific than “immune response”. Immunity typically implies prevention. Prevention is not absolute, it does not necessarily imply success. Oral contraceptives are said to “prevent” pregnancy but that does not mean they are 100% successful.

I assure you, the word prevention was never a controversial topic prior to now. Take a look at these FDA EUA’s




Let’s look at how some other FDA authorized indications are worded for vaccines:

Fluzone Quadrivalent​

Shingrix​

PNEUMOVAX 23​

Varivax (Chickenpox Vaccine)​

Gardasil (HPV Vaccine)​

Ervebo (Ebolavirus Vaccine)​


I guess someone better tell the FDA what vaccines are!

(Some indications do not use the word prevent/prevention, instead verbiage like “for immunization against”. This seems to be a minority and is does not appear correlated to when the vaccine was approved or what disease it is targeting- i.e. Flu vaccines, Fluzone uses “prevention” but Afluria says: “For active immunization against influenza disease…”)
Not one says “prevent infection” as you did. There is a difference. You painstakingly parsed minute details of the CDC statements, so I hope you can apply the same rigor to your own.
 
U

User.45

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Vaccine:
Old: “a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease”
New: "a preparation that is used to stimulate the body's immune response against diseases”
Vaccinate:
Old: “the act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce immunity to a specific disease”
New: “the act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce production to a specific disease.”

Immunity (current):
“Protection from an infectious disease. If you are immune to a disease, you can be exposed to it without becoming infected.”

Reportedly the CDC changed the definitions so as not to imply vaccines are 100% effective. But no pharmaceutical product is ever assumed to be 100% effective. And I don’t know if any other drug class’ definition that includes language to inform that point.
Wow. So much nonsense. Per the old definition your Grandfather (hope he's well) did not receive a vaccine because his body did not produce (enough) immunity. The new definition acknowledges that the act of vaccination has does not account for the host-dependent requirements of developing immunity. Two long posts about vaccine inefficacy expectations, when the current initial full vaccination still provides 95% risk reduction for death and 50% risk reduction for any infection. The vaccines may have dropping efficacy in humoral immunity (antibody production) that prevents infection, however, the cellular immunity part seems to last longer, which prevents severe disease.
 

AG_PhamD

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In short, the CDC isn’t trying to fool anybody,

Interesting to see the true motivations behind this change.

Oftentimes the vaccine failure in patients are caused by the lack of an immune response. I guess since not everyone will form an immune response their definition is still wrong, if you use the same reasoning they used, which lets keep in mind was adopted from a bunch of anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorists. People highly regarded for their reasoning skills (sarcasm).

The CDC, or at least these employees seem to have thought the antivaxxers had a legitimate point. I would argue they did not, but these emails appear to be between communications department staff, not medical professionals or scientists. But this seems to be another example of the CDC doing ridiculous things to protect the perception of the vaccine or their public health policies.

If you ask the CDC in Fall 2021 or later, then you’d be right- vaccines now “stimulate an immune responseagainst diseases”. They have forwarded this idea that understanding vaccination to imply disease prevention is some sort of fallacy.

I thought this was true all along. A flu shot does not mean you won’t get the flu, it means if you contract the flu, your symptoms will be less because your body has antibodies ready to go, no?
We’re talking about two different scenarios. With the flu, you have a vaccine that was designed a year in advance predicting the 3-4 most likely strains. If it’s not effective in preventing illness, it’s more than likely because the virus has mutated. But that’s not really the failure of the vaccine itself, it’s the failure to design the right one. Obviously the future cannot be reliably predicted and ineffective flu vaccines are to be expected.

It’s another scenario to have a vaccine for a virus that works very well and the stops working despite the virus having not changed to any significant degree.

The reality some vaccines lose efficacy with time (which is actually the case with the flu vaccine, it’s effects just happen to last long enough to get through most of the flu season, same with tetanus, etc)- COVID vaccine included. So rather admit the shortcoming of the COVID vaccines (as all pharmaceutical do) and say the acquired immunity from the COVID vaccine diminishes with time, they instead try to change the definition of a vaccine to essentially say vaccines don’t have the intention of providing protection / preventing disease.

Similarly, rather than say disease prevention is decreased because COVID has mutated and the vaccine is no longer or the optimal design for the given variant, they say vaccines weren’t supposed to provide protection to begin with.

Then why did the FDA indicate the vaccines “for prevention of” COVID-19 and why did the FDA base their vaccines efficacy primarily off of prevention of COVID?

Rather than providing the public education to explain why vaccines don’t always work and how they can still be helpful if you catch the disease, they fight the criticism by changing definitions to something incredibly vague? As if that’s going to be more convincing.

These emails suggest these CDC employees thought the antivaxxers had a legitimate claim. The subtext is

Let me make an analogy. Antipsychotics are “a type of psychiatric medication which are available on prescription to treat psychosis”. I can give a patient an antipsychotic, but it doesn’t mean it’s going to work aka they receive treatment. In fact, 10-15% of psychotic people won’t ever respond to antipsychotics from day zero, but up to 50% stop responding long term. Does that mean we need to change the definition? How about “a psychiatric medicine often prescribed to patients diagnosed with psychosis”? Perfect!

The definition of a pharmaceutical class is based on what the intention of what the product is ideally supposed to do, not be worded to encompass situations where it does not work. As we’ve established nothing is 100% effective. But the entire basis of vaccines lies on the idea of immunity, including partial immunity, and preventing disease. That’s why COVID , Flu, MMR, etc vaccines are technically classified as prophylactic vaccines and are legally considered preventative healthcare.

As I mentioned, this is really just an academic debate as it has no bearing on clinical practice or research or regulations. As I mentioned earlier, so don’t love their old definition, but the new one is terrible. My concern however is that this type of reactionary, political (not so much L/R politics but rather throwing the weight of the govt around) nonsense and wordplay only encourages distrust of the health authorities and clinical healthcare industry. The irony is, the more they try to control public perceptions through aggressive and flagrant actions, the worse they and the policies they support are perceived.
 

AG_PhamD

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Not one says “prevent infection” as you did. There is a difference. You painstakingly parsed minute details of the CDC statements, so I hope you can apply the same rigor to your own.

Sorry, would you prefer I say prevent disease and have used the two interchangeably. In the vernacular of the general public the two are synonymous.
 

AG_PhamD

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Wow. So much nonsense. Per the old definition your Grandfather (hope he's well) did not receive a vaccine because his body did not produce (enough) immunity. The new definition acknowledges that the act of vaccination has does not account for the host-dependent requirements of developing immunity. Two long posts about vaccine inefficacy expectations, when the current initial full vaccination still provides 95% risk reduction for death and 50% risk reduction for any infection. The vaccines may have dropping efficacy in humoral immunity (antibody production) that prevents infection, however, the cellular immunity part seems to last longer, which prevents severe disease.

What about immunity in the sense of cell mediated immunity? Would that not apply?

I would agree new definition considers host dependent factors, it also recognizes therapeutic vaccines which we’ll probably see more of in the future… but that’s not why they changed the definition according to their own public statement.

And apparently this was the conversation behind the scenes.

I would argue “promoting protection” occurs because you are “promoting immunity” or some form to some degree. Promoting is not promising and it also implies partial effects are possible. The CDC’s definition of immunity is “protection from infectious disease”. So now we’re going around in circles.

Based on their definition would Neupogen now be a vaccine? It “promotes protection” by stimulating neutrophil production. These neutrophils protect “against disease” such as bacterial infections and cancers… or neutropenia of course. I think it fits the definition quite well but we both know it’s definitely not a vaccine.

I suppose the issue with depending too much on cellular immunity (in healthy individuals) is it’s delayed response time compared to humoral. More time to incubate means more time to replicate, more time to spread, more time to mutate, etc. Cell mediated response takes what- 6-8 days? Versus a couple with antibodies?

T-cell targeted therapies would be quite interesting… along the lines of allogenic CAR-T cells except for infection and hopefully absent the cytotoxicity problems and absurd costs.

I never said vaccines don’t have utility or that people should not be vaccinated. I am addressing specifically the topic of disease prevention in the context of diminishing efficacy.

I’m curious about your source on the 50% protection or is that internal data? I’ve seen 30-40% reported, but not exactly top tier quality studies. Obviously a lot of cofounders at this point- +/- booster, vaccine mixing/matching, timing, etc.
 

Huntn

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Interesting to see the true motivations behind this change.

Oftentimes the vaccine failure in patients are caused by the lack of an immune response. I guess since not everyone will form an immune response their definition is still wrong, if you use the same reasoning they used, which lets keep in mind was adopted from a bunch of anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorists. People highly regarded for their reasoning skills (sarcasm).

The CDC, or at least these employees seem to have thought the antivaxxers had a legitimate point. I would argue they did not, but these emails appear to be between communications department staff, not medical professionals or scientists. But this seems to be another example of the CDC doing ridiculous things to protect the perception of the vaccine or their public health policies.


We’re talking about two different scenarios. With the flu, you have a vaccine that was designed a year in advance predicting the 3-4 most likely strains. If it’s not effective in preventing illness, it’s more than likely because the virus has mutated. But that’s not really the failure of the vaccine itself, it’s the failure to design the right one. Obviously the future cannot be reliably predicted and ineffective flu vaccines are to be expected.

It’s another scenario to have a vaccine for a virus that works very well and the stops working despite the virus having not changed to any significant degree.

The reality some vaccines lose efficacy with time (which is actually the case with the flu vaccine, it’s effects just happen to last long enough to get through most of the flu season, same with tetanus, etc)- COVID vaccine included. So rather admit the shortcoming of the COVID vaccines (as all pharmaceutical do) and say the acquired immunity from the COVID vaccine diminishes with time, they instead try to change the definition of a vaccine to essentially say vaccines don’t have the intention of providing protection / preventing disease.

Similarly, rather than say disease prevention is decreased because COVID has mutated and the vaccine is no longer or the optimal design for the given variant, they say vaccines weren’t supposed to provide protection to begin with.

Then why did the FDA indicate the vaccines “for prevention of” COVID-19 and why did the FDA base their vaccines efficacy primarily off of prevention of COVID?

Rather than providing the public education to explain why vaccines don’t always work and how they can still be helpful if you catch the disease, they fight the criticism by changing definitions to something incredibly vague? As if that’s going to be more convincing.

These emails suggest these CDC employees thought the antivaxxers had a legitimate claim. The subtext is

Let me make an analogy. Antipsychotics are “a type of psychiatric medication which are available on prescription to treat psychosis”. I can give a patient an antipsychotic, but it doesn’t mean it’s going to work aka they receive treatment. In fact, 10-15% of psychotic people won’t ever respond to antipsychotics from day zero, but up to 50% stop responding long term. Does that mean we need to change the definition? How about “a psychiatric medicine often prescribed to patients diagnosed with psychosis”? Perfect!

The definition of a pharmaceutical class is based on what the intention of what the product is ideally supposed to do, not be worded to encompass situations where it does not work. As we’ve established nothing is 100% effective. But the entire basis of vaccines lies on the idea of immunity, including partial immunity, and preventing disease. That’s why COVID , Flu, MMR, etc vaccines are technically classified as prophylactic vaccines and are legally considered preventative healthcare.

As I mentioned, this is really just an academic debate as it has no bearing on clinical practice or research or regulations. As I mentioned earlier, so don’t love their old definition, but the new one is terrible. My concern however is that this type of reactionary, political (not so much L/R politics but rather throwing the weight of the govt around) nonsense and wordplay only encourages distrust of the health authorities and clinical healthcare industry. The irony is, the more they try to control public perceptions through aggressive and flagrant actions, the worse they and the policies they support are perceived.
I’m still not clear why some vaccines are regarded as “lifetime” and others not. I understand the changing mutating nature of flu and COVID, but why are measles, mumps, TB or polio considered lifetime?
 

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If you ask the CDC in Fall 2021 or later, then you’d be right- vaccines now “stimulate an immune response against diseases”. They have forwarded this idea that understanding vaccination to imply disease prevention is some sort of fallacy.

I think many people in healthcare and science, myself included, find this to be the CDC manipulating expectations of the public.

I guess they have forgotten nearly every vaccine clinical trial’s primary endpoint is efficacy in preventing infection, including those for Moderna and Pfizer’s COVID vaccines. As you may remember, these products were originally about 95% effective* “effective” meaning preventing infection. [*in the alpha variant, before immunity wanes, which was not known as these trials were too short]

I guess the real question is what did they know and when did they know it?

Did they let the public think these were vaccines, say equivalent to the smallpox vaccine, that would keep you from getting the disease or did they know these vaccines would really only keep you from getting really sick?

These are answers, and questions, the left doesn't want asked or answered.


Not one says “prevent infection” as you did. There is a difference. You painstakingly parsed minute details of the CDC statements, so I hope you can apply the same rigor to your own.

Bull F-ing :poop:.

Biden said that EXACT thing multiple times.

"During the July 21 event in Cincinnati, Biden said, "You're not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations.""

You can parse this all you want, but he clearly stated you are NOT going to get COVID if vaccinated. That seems very synonymous with "Prevent Infection".


Can't wait to see how this is spun here.
 
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Can't wait to see how this is spun here.
Biden was factually incorrect about this, however, the infection risk was reduced by >>90% pre Delta, and we didn't have reliable Delta data then (I know, I tried to find it). So he was wrong, but considering the mature available data suggested you are very unlikely to get COVID. Thus the statement was approximately correct, the issue was the absolutistic presentation. Some people just revise history by applying our current knowledge to the past. Again let me compare this to Trump's saying COVID is "just a flu" when the data widely available then indicated 100x higher mortality.


What about immunity in the sense of cell mediated immunity? Would that not apply?
Cellular immunity is a synonym for cell-mediated immunity.
I would agree new definition considers host dependent factors, it also recognizes therapeutic vaccines which we’ll probably see more of in the future… but that’s not why they changed the definition according to their own public statement.

And apparently this was the conversation behind the scenes.
A super malignant anatomy professor of mine had one good saying: "Nomenclature is made by those who can't do science". (He flunked hundreds of people out of medical school on nomenclature questions..). If you've ever written a consent form for a study, one of the requirements is to make it readable on a <8th (usually 6th) grade literacy level. You for some reason feel entitled/tasked to create a definition nobody asked you to make up that manages to fail at simplicity.

Now I know where you're getting you informations. A website that makes claims like this (your linked article):
To many observers, it appeared the CDC changed the definitions because of the waning effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines. For example, the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine falls over time, with an Israeli study reported in August 2021 as showing the vaccine being “only 16% effective against symptomatic infection for those individuals who had two doses of the shot back in January.”
Of course the link goes nowhere. The raw reporting of COVID deaths from Israel in August 2021 showed much higher derivable efficacy numbers. So here you are a Pharmacist, spreading unsubstantiated COVID information reverberating a climate change denying congressman funded by Big Fossil fighting against Big Pharma?! Give me a break!

You complain about these issues being politicized and here you are referring to narratives that are clearly written with a political agenda.

I would argue “promoting protection” occurs because you are “promoting immunity” or some form to some degree. Promoting is not promising and it also implies partial effects are possible. The CDC’s definition of immunity is “protection from infectious disease”. So now we’re going around in circles.
You're going in circles. I don't care too much about it. Promoting immunity doesn't necessarily mean protection. Remember, that CDC needs to keep it simple.
Based on their definition would Neupogen now be a vaccine? It “promotes protection” by stimulating neutrophil production. These neutrophils protect “against disease” such as bacterial infections and cancers… or neutropenia of course. I think it fits the definition quite well but we both know it’s definitely not a vaccine.
"produce protection from a specific disease". Neutrophil activity is classified as innate immunity and not adaptive immunity, thus not specific to a disease, so no their definition isn't wrong. Your reasoning is. This is immunology 101.
I suppose the issue with depending too much on cellular immunity (in healthy individuals) is it’s delayed response time compared to humoral. More time to incubate means more time to replicate, more time to spread, more time to mutate, etc. Cell mediated response takes what- 6-8 days? Versus a couple with antibodies?
IgM (immature antibody) production rises in a few days, peaks in about 7 and you'll get IgG (mature antibody) production crossing over between days 5-10. Of course you need IgA to prevent mucosal entry. I don't know what the specific dynamics of cellular immunity are, and I suspect this time it's not entirely my personal ignorance, but it's being much harder to track.
T-cell targeted therapies would be quite interesting… along the lines of allogenic CAR-T cells except for infection and hopefully absent the cytotoxicity problems and absurd costs.
CARs are irrelevant to current discussion.

I never said vaccines don’t have utility or that people should not be vaccinated. I am addressing specifically the topic of disease prevention in the context of diminishing efficacy.
I understand, but you don't even realize how hard you're moving the goal posts. You mentioned Influenza. Well, dive a little into asymptomatic influenza (there's a BMJ paper on this from ~2015). If we tested for Influenza like we test for COVID the Influenza vaccine efficacy numbers would be much lower than what you're referring to. And before @Herdfan will come up with a Trump quote, no, I'm not advocating for less COVID testing.

I’m curious about your source on the 50% protection or is that internal data? I’ve seen 30-40% reported, but not exactly top tier quality studies. Obviously a lot of cofounders at this point- +/- booster, vaccine mixing/matching, timing, etc.
CDC processed up to Dec 4. Risk of infection is 2x higher in the unvaccinated, which translates to 50% risk reduction. This number is 20-fold lower mortality among fully vaccinated. But if I use publicly reported data from hospitals I worked at, 75% of COVID admissions are unvaccinated and 25% people of adults are unvaccinated. Do your math. I did mine, and all of this meet my definition of "protection".
 
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I’m still not clear why some vaccines are regarded as “lifetime” and others not. I understand the changing mutating nature of flu and COVID, but why are measles, mumps, TB or polio considered lifetime?
You might think it's a simple question, but it's not. It's actually a billion dollar question. Just think about how HIV doesn't have a vaccine, versus mumps is considered a one-and-done disease. TB vaccine (BCG - Bacillus Calmette Guérin) has a debated efficacy, thus not given in the USA.
 
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BTW, if FOIA requests are gonna be abused like this nobody will want take these jobs at the FDA CDC or NIH. Imagine taking the lowest salary you can get as a physician to live in one of the most expensive areas in the country just to be harassed like this. I wish we had access like this to politician's communications.
 

Eric

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What about immunity in the sense of cell mediated immunity? Would that not apply?

I would agree new definition considers host dependent factors, it also recognizes therapeutic vaccines which we’ll probably see more of in the future… but that’s not why they changed the definition according to their own public statement.

And apparently this was the conversation behind the scenes.

I would argue “promoting protection” occurs because you are “promoting immunity” or some form to some degree. Promoting is not promising and it also implies partial effects are possible. The CDC’s definition of immunity is “protection from infectious disease”. So now we’re going around in circles.

Based on their definition would Neupogen now be a vaccine? It “promotes protection” by stimulating neutrophil production. These neutrophils protect “against disease” such as bacterial infections and cancers… or neutropenia of course. I think it fits the definition quite well but we both know it’s definitely not a vaccine.

I suppose the issue with depending too much on cellular immunity (in healthy individuals) is it’s delayed response time compared to humoral. More time to incubate means more time to replicate, more time to spread, more time to mutate, etc. Cell mediated response takes what- 6-8 days? Versus a couple with antibodies?

T-cell targeted therapies would be quite interesting… along the lines of allogenic CAR-T cells except for infection and hopefully absent the cytotoxicity problems and absurd costs.

I never said vaccines don’t have utility or that people should not be vaccinated. I am addressing specifically the topic of disease prevention in the context of diminishing efficacy.

I’m curious about your source on the 50% protection or is that internal data? I’ve seen 30-40% reported, but not exactly top tier quality studies. Obviously a lot of cofounders at this point- +/- booster, vaccine mixing/matching, timing, etc.
I haven't heard experts refute this directly (although YMMV depending and sources), in fact they've said natural immunity certainly may provide protection. The problem is the amount of protection is all over the place, the vaccine at least guarantees a certain and consistent level for most with few exceptions. Besides, with millions dead I would ask who would want to risk it for natural immunity.
 

SuperMatt

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What about immunity in the sense of cell mediated immunity? Would that not apply?

I would agree new definition considers host dependent factors, it also recognizes therapeutic vaccines which we’ll probably see more of in the future… but that’s not why they changed the definition according to their own public statement.

And apparently this was the conversation behind the scenes.
The fact that you would re-post such a source tells everybody here everything they need to know. This is conspiracy theory BS. Anybody that passed a basic logic course in high school could easily refute the false conclusion they made:

There you have it. Affirmative action for the multinational corporations. Why have them improve their vaccines when you can just change the definition of vaccine to fit their ineffective vaccines?

Congrats to all the skeptics out there – you raised enough hell that the the CDC went and tried to change reality.
Read the actual sources they posted. The CDC definition of vaccine was way out of date, and not consistent with current science. Nobody “tried to change reality.”

And this blog also insists that COVID-19 was engineered in a lab, despite most evidence showing that is highly unlikely… and this blog is also unhealthily obsessed with the Durham investigation. This is the kind of stuff regularly read by people who take guns into pizza parlors to see if Hillary is molesting kids in the basement. Yikes.
 
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