SpaceX $1.8 billion contract to develop networked intelligence gathering satellites for the NRO

[Citysnaps]

You have to give SpaceX props with respect to their space-based activities over the years. They started eight years ago providing launch services for government national security payloads.

SpaceX is now under contract to develop and deploy a large robust/resilient distributed constellation of hundreds of laser-networked reconnaissance (radar and imagery) satellites in low Earth orbit for the National Reconnaissance Office. That's quite a remarkable achievement. And is likely disturbing to the traditional go-to defense satellite manufacturers (Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, and Boeing) who've been in that business for decades.

As an aside, I have a feeling that recent news of Russia developing an anti-satellite system employing a nuclear weapon could be in response to the above.

If SpaceX's Secret Constellation Is What We Think It Is, It's Game Changing (Updated)

A constellation of hundreds of sensor-equipped satellites would offer unprecedented strategic and tactical surveillance around the globe.

www.twz.com

 

[dada_dave]

You know there was a time you couldn't even say the NRO existed* ... now they announce top secret satellite missions in the press. Weird times.

*Yeah everyone knew it existed but it wasn't supposed to advertised. As for SpaceX ... well ... I sincerely hope the recent reports about Starshield in Taiwan and Starlink in Ukraine are wrong or exaggerated.

 

[Citysnaps]

Weird times.

Indeed. It seems every week I see a well-designed NSA employee recruiting post on Facebook touting a wide range of interesting opportunities.

Getting back to SpaceX... I'm still blown away how rapidly they've penetrated the above market - starting with launch services, and now being entrusted to developing novel and robust national security payloads - in just eight years. That's quite an amazing feat. If the above system comes to fruition and is successfully deployed, SpaceX will be snagging even more business in that and related fields.

I'm wondering how much of that credit should go to Musk personally, or was it due to him finding/employing a group of very creative systems engineers. I'm guessing it's a mixture of both.

 

[Eric]

You know there was a time you couldn't even say the NRO existed* ... now they announce top secret satellite missions in the press. Weird times.

*Yeah everyone knew it existed but it wasn't supposed to advertised. As for SpaceX ... well ... I sincerely hope the recent reports about Starshield in Taiwan and Starlink in Ukraine are wrong or exaggerated.

This. I think we can trust Musk as much as we can Putin.

 

[Nycturne]

You know there was a time you couldn't even say the NRO existed* ... now they announce top secret satellite missions in the press. Weird times.

Well, it’s a different era where it would be pretty hard to keep it out of the press. Amateur astronomy also has a lot more access to known satellites and their orbits, so a new constellation of over 100 satellites isn’t going to go unnoticed by civilians. So it’s getting simpler to just acknowledge they exist and not get into specifics.

There’s also value in saying, “Yes, these are our property” for allies and adversaries alike.

I sincerely hope the recent reports about Starshield in Taiwan and Starlink in Ukraine are wrong or exaggerated.

This is one thing that worries me. It seems really weird to make agreements with a military and then get squeamish about it. I’d be surprised if SpaceX also operates the network in this case.

 

[Eric]

This is one thing that worries me. It seems really weird to make agreements with a military and then get squeamish about it. I’d be surprised if SpaceX also operates the network in this case.

But we would have to trust Musk to stay out of it and frankly he's shown to be the complete opposite. It would be very much like the CCP and TikTok, IMO there is no way he can be trusted, the US Government would basically need to take it over.

 

[Nycturne]

But we would have to trust Musk to stay out of it and frankly he's shown to be the complete opposite. It would be very much like the CCP and TikTok, IMO there is no way he can be trusted, the US Government would basically need to take it over.

This is what I mean by operation, though. Historically when the government contracts out this sort of thing, it takes control of everything once deployed. So it sounds like we’re actually saying the same thing.

Even Musk‘s comments on the constellation seem to be suggesting that the DoD will own the assets, unlike Starlink (which is a contract to use civilian assets for military use).

 

[Citysnaps]

But we would have to trust Musk to stay out of it and frankly he's shown to be the complete opposite. It would be very much like the CCP and TikTok, IMO there is no way he can be trusted, the US Government would basically need to take it over.

If he f'd around with it he'd never get another government contract again.

 

[Citysnaps]

There are interesting parallels with Howard Hughes and Musk. I'm looking forward to seeing how Musk evolves/devolves as he ages.

 

[dada_dave]

Well, it’s a different era where it would be pretty hard to keep it out of the press. Amateur astronomy also has a lot more access to known satellites and their orbits, so a new constellation of over 100 satellites isn’t going to go unnoticed by civilians. So it’s getting simpler to just acknowledge they exist and not get into specifics.
There’s also value in saying, “Yes, these are our property” for allies and adversaries alike.

I should specify the switch took place sometime in the early 90s, probably post Cold War relaxing. Long ago by some measures but hardly ancient history.

It was a little silly in many respects but as @Citysnaps alluded to already actually openly talking about how “we’re doing cool stuff!” is more about recruitment and funding than modern journalism and informing allies. Especially the latter was always a thing. Hell there are international bodies our national enemies sit on that we have to inform to some degree about stuff that gets launched. So again you could argue what was the point? Well … I guess they felt just inculcating a low profile was good for security overall.

This is one thing that worries me. It seems really weird to make agreements with a military and then get squeamish about it. I’d be surprised if SpaceX also operates the network in this case.

I should stress that the Taiwan thing is in dispute. Congressmen came back from a junket claiming that they’d been informed by US Military personnel that Starshield wasn’t operating as it was supposed to be. Starshield being the military equivalent of StarLink is likely not operated by SpaceX and SpaceX has countered that they are not in breach of their contracts. Given that the US Military hasn’t officially said anything and if they were in breach … I sincerely hope @Citysnaps is right that SpaceX would be in a world of shit if they were. On the other hand, given Musk’s stated position that Taiwan should just be handed over to China and what we’ve seen from DoD in that Ronan Farrow article (some DoD acting appropriately and others forgetting who they work for), there’s a reason people are uncomfortable.

The recent Ukraine allegations in some ways are worse but also might not be SpaceX’s fault. Basically the Ukrainians allege, with evidence, that the Russians are successfully using StarLink themselves and that they have obtained units beyond what has been captured on the battlefield. Even if all this is true, it may not be that SpaceX has deliberately turned a blind eye, as many Western companies have done, to where their dual use technology is going. While many companies peddling dual use technology have seemingly been unperturbed by the 800% increase in orders to Armenia, Georgia, etc … since 2022, the Russians have aggressively pursued dual use technology and hacking StarLink in particular. So this might not reflect any particular dereliction on their part. Again though given Musk’s attitudes it just raises flags that might not be raised in other circumstances even if that’s still unfair in this instance.

There are interesting parallels with Howard Hughes and Musk. I'm looking forward to seeing how Musk evolves/devolves as he ages.

You can mix in Henry Ford/Charles Lindbergh for pro fascist/authoritarian sympathies.

 

[dada_dave]

Indeed. It seems every week I see a well-designed NSA employee recruiting post on Facebook touting a wide range of interesting opportunities.

Getting back to SpaceX... I'm still blown away how rapidly they've penetrated the above market - starting with launch services, and now being entrusted to developing novel and robust national security payloads - in just eight years. That's quite an amazing feat. If the above system comes to fruition and is successfully deployed, SpaceX will be snagging even more business in that and related fields.

I'm wondering how much of that credit should go to Musk personally, or was it due to him finding/employing a group of very creative systems engineers. I'm guessing it's a mixture of both.

Let’s also not forget hiring former DoD officials and giving board seats and VP positions to ex-Generals and Colonels. A lot of this is based on relationships. That’s incredibly common amongst Defense Industry and I remember Musk actually complaining about that when he was first starting to try to get Defense contracts. No doubt SpaceX plays the game now as well. That may not give them an advantage since they all do it, but it ain’t all about merit either.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

There are interesting parallels with Howard Hughes and Musk. I'm looking forward to seeing how Musk evolves/devolves as he ages.

I don’t think Hughes was a white nationalist man child and I find it disturbing when that gets overlooked as Musk starts leaning even more heavily in that direction. He’s also a futurist who believes a large percentage of the population is necessarily expendable. But hey, neat space stuff.

 

[Eric]

I don’t think Hughes was a white nationalist man child and I find it disturbing when that gets overlooked as Musk starts leaning even more heavily in that direction. He’s also a futurist who believes a large percentage of the population is necessarily expendable. But hey, neat space stuff.

And as long as he owns the company he will have his fingers in it, it would be a huge mistake for the government to get into bed with this guy and in fact they should be regulating him IMO. He's got too much money and proven he will use it to harm others over his political leanings when left to his own devices.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

And as long as he owns the company he will have his fingers in it, it would be a huge mistake for the government to get into bed with this guy and in fact they should be regulating him IMO. He's got too much money and proven he will use it to harm others over his political leanings when left to his own devices.

He’s also the asshole who will rail against the government while receiving massive amounts of money from the government through contracts and subsidies and then complain he’s paying too much in taxes.

 

[Citysnaps]

Let’s also not forget hiring former DoD officials and giving board seats and VP positions to ex-Generals and Colonels. A lot of this is based on relationships. That’s incredibly common amongst Defense Industry and I remember Musk actually complaining about that when he was first starting to try to get Defense contracts. No doubt SpaceX plays the game now as well. That may not give them an advantage since they all do it, but it ain’t all about merit either.

They might be nice for decoration, and possibly "knowing someone" in an organization's contracting office and needing an "assist" in getting a contract. But that's about it.

I'm much more curious in how Musk hired the systems/hardware/mechanical engineers with the decades of aerospace experience necessary to develop and manufacture the systems he's proposing, building, and winning contracts for today. All happening within a very short period of time. I find that quite remarkable. Musk has a BA in physics from Penn and a BA in economics from Wharton - he's not an engineer.

The two successful aerospace focused companies I worked for got their start from very talented systems and hardware engineers with proven track records in their field and many years of *direct* experience, having better ideas, and wanting to start new companies. Without that those companies wouldn't have got very far.

 

[Nycturne]

I should specify the switch took place sometime in the early 90s, probably post Cold War relaxing. Long ago by some measures but hardly ancient history.

It was a little silly in many respects but as @Citysnaps alluded to already actually openly talking about how “we’re doing cool stuff!” is more about recruitment and funding than modern journalism and informing allies. Especially the latter was always a thing. Hell there are international bodies our national enemies sit on that we have to inform to some degree about stuff that gets launched. So again you could argue what was the point? Well … I guess they felt just inculcating a low profile was good for security overall.

I guess my point is that with the internet and the like, trying to hide satellites is more work than ever. Yes, this sort of announcement is likely as you say, but at the same time, there's not much value today in not being open about "yes, we put a military payload up." Because if you aren't, everyone's going to know anyway, and the tracking information is going to be out there as well. It's not like you have to tell everyone its capabilities. It's not like earth observation is a new thing either.

I should stress that the Taiwan thing is in dispute. Congressmen came back from a junket claiming that they’d been informed by US Military personnel that Starshield wasn’t operating as it was supposed to be. Starshield being the military equivalent of StarLink is likely not operated by SpaceX and SpaceX has countered that they are not in breach of their contracts. Given that the US Military hasn’t officially said anything and if they were in breach … I sincerely hope @Citysnaps is right that SpaceX would be in a world of shit if they were. On the other hand, given Musk’s stated position that Taiwan should just be handed over to China and what we’ve seen from DoD in that Ronan Farrow article (some DoD acting appropriately and others forgetting who they work for), there’s a reason people are uncomfortable.

It's also worth pointing out that the constellation this thread is discussing is StarShield. And no, I don't expect SpaceX to be operating a military asset. Growing up in a household where my father worked on these sort of shared projects with aerospace and DoD, I have a vague idea how these tend to work at least.

The recent Ukraine allegations in some ways are worse but also might not be SpaceX’s fault. Basically the Ukrainians allege, with evidence, that the Russians are successfully using StarLink themselves and that they have obtained units beyond what has been captured on the battlefield. Even if all this is true, it may not be that SpaceX has deliberately turned a blind eye, as many Western companies have done, to where their dual use technology is going. While many companies peddling dual use technology have seemingly been unperturbed by the 800% increase in orders to Armenia, Georgia, etc … since 2022, the Russians have aggressively pursued dual use technology and hacking StarLink in particular. So this might not reflect any particular dereliction on their part. Again though given Musk’s attitudes it just raises flags that might not be raised in other circumstances even if that’s still unfair in this instance.

I'm more concerned about what Musk has admitted to doing. Providing services to the Ukrainian military, at the US military's behest, and then going "Uh, but not that way" unilaterally. But as I've already pointed out, that is a military contracting for use of a civilian asset, and shouldn't necessarily be applied to something like StarShield.

Elon Musk says he withheld Starlink over Crimea to avoid escalation

A senior Ukrainian official says this enabled Russian attacks and accuses him of "committing evil".

www.bbc.com

 

[mr_roboto]

I'm much more curious in how Musk hired the systems/hardware/mechanical engineers with the decades of aerospace experience necessary to develop and manufacture the systems he's proposing, building, and winning contracts for today. All happening within a very short period of time. I find that quite remarkable. Musk has a BA in physics from Penn and a BA in economics from Wharton - he's not an engineer.

The story I've always heard with SpaceX is that it's really run by Gwynne Shotwell (COO), and the company has always existed knowing that Musk is an idiot. But he's also the money guy they have to keep happy, so they have all kinds of processes and structures designed to flatter his ego and let him think he's in charge of engineering while protecting the real engineers from his meddling so they can get on with their work.

I have also heard that Musk elbowed his way into more direct involvement with Starship, which is why there's been any number of insane things happening on that project.

Tesla has this kind of insulating structure around Musk, but to a far lesser extent than SpaceX, which is why it's a dysfunctional company that's been propped up mainly by government EV subsidies, carbon offset trading, and the extremely irrational stock market. And Twitter is what you get when Musk takes control of an organization that lacks any institutional knowledge of how to limit the his damage, which is why it's crashing and burning and will keep doing so as long as Musk is willing to keep pumping money into the fire.

 

[Citysnaps]

The story I've always heard with SpaceX is that it's really run by Gwynne Shotwell (COO), and the company has always existed knowing that Musk is an idiot.

Thank you for the heads up. Doing a few minutes of research I discovered she in the past worked at The Aerospace Corporation. That answers my above questions about SpaceX's astonishing rise in national security space launches and payloads.

The Aerospace Corporation (based in El Segundo, CA) is a non-profit who works closely with the NRO and what is now United States Space Force, providing technical guidance and research for national security space based systems. I don't know what she did at Aerospace, but I wouldn't be surprised that as an engineer she was directly involved in the development of many national security space systems.

Having her on board as SpaceX's COO is no doubt a huge factor in SpaceX snagging those contracts.

 

[Citysnaps]

Some Musk and Howard Huges similarities:

 

[Eric]

Some Musk and Howard Huges similarities:

I would never consider Musk a hero, he was born into wealth and is a great salesman/investor but hardly an innovator on a personal level. Watching the richest men on the planet being revered in this way is sickening.