US Senator Kyrsten Sinema to leave democrat party, register as Independent.

GermanSuplex

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Was hoping the democrats getting to 51 seats meant we’d hear less about her or Joe Manchin, but she knows how to keep her name in the news.

She’s signaled she will still caucus with democrats, but it’s possible Kamala Harris will still have to cast tie-breaking votes if Sinema is frequently out of step with her current colleagues.

 

Eric

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I would just ask what the difference will be, her (like Manchin) have and will continue to vote with Republicans either way, may as well adopt the label.
 

lizkat

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I would just ask what the difference will be, her (like Manchin) have and will continue to vote with Republicans either way, may as well adopt the label.

Sinema's probably heading for the exits and lobby-land rather than stand for re-election.

She knows she can't win a D primary and there WOULD be a Dem primary for her seat in 2024. So she gets headlines now for leaving the Democratic Party but she sticks in the D caucus for at least awhile to get the lay of the land going forward.

Among other things this lets her see who she'd run against if she switched and ran as an R because Ds will now declare intention to run for her seat in 2024.

She could indeed switch and run as a Republican, but see her actual voting record could make her vulnerable in a Republican primary. She gives the Ds migraine headaches during bill negotiations but does not always vote against her party on final legislation.

If she switched, running as an R she'd have to hope to face multiple Rs on that primary ballot, and she might get over the finish line that way: AZ only requires a plurality to win. She certainly has name recognition going for her, and not all voters pay enough attention to object to her full voting record. They see headlines about how she locks horns with the Dems and that might be good enough.

AZ has hybrid primaries so indies can vote in R or D primaries by declaring a temporary affiliation even on election day. The question again though would be whether right-leaning voters would find her actual voting record "red enough" --and her R opponents would try to highlight any past D votes of hers that they find convenient for their ads.
 

shadow puppet

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This pretty much sums it up for me. Completely on brand for Sinema.

Screen Shot 2022-12-09 at 9.52.41 AM.png
 

lizkat

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The only real surprise here is that Manchin didn’t think of it first.

To me that would have been shocking. His votes do show that he remains a blue dog Dem, even though his union-based constituency is fading away. He gives Biden a hard time on progressive stuff, but remains a traditionalist in terms of supporting a D president's nominations even if they might not be to his liking.

The whole WV government has turned red at state and congressional levels now except for Manchin. He has said he's standing for re-election in 2024. His polls were up for awhile, not lately.

I'll just have to wonder if Sinema would have had the brass to go ahead and follow suit if Manchin had gone first and bailed on the Ds in the Senate. If she'd doubled down and gone too, well that would have been an act of war against the Ds.

What she mostly did was just launch an inquiry into which Dems will go for that seat in the primaries, so she can try to figure if she wants to try to make a run as an R. Quite a dicey bet. The registered Dem voters had to loathe her already for betraying their expectations of her as a Dem senator, and this move has to be pretty much over the top even for left leaning indies. Not all Rs will look favorably on someone who switches parties either, once they get over the gotcha politics of this moment.
 

lizkat

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I can't help wonder what her Democrat constituents feel when she pulls a stunt like this.

Probably sprinkling glitter on home made signs that say don't let the door hit you in the...

They'll be fine. They were already gonna primary the hell out of her anyway which is the main reason she left the party. She would not win that primary, not even when a plurality is enough to win.

In the meantime she hasn't always voted against Democratic legislation, just lobbies the hell out of the bill language for her big donors' interests, and will likely keep doing that.

The D leaning voters need to pay attention in the D primaries for 2024. Who's paying for the ads etc.
 

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Talk is circulating that Sinema basically just handed the next Senate seat to the GOP. One being urged to run for Senator is Kari Lake. Supposedly Lake is suggesting that Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb run for the seat instead.

I can only hope Sinema's actions will split the Republican vote more than the Democratic vote.
 

Eric

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Talk is circulating that Sinema basically just handed the next Senate seat to the GOP. One being urged to run for Senator is Kari Lake. Supposedly Lake is suggesting that Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb run for the seat instead.

I can only hope Sinema's actions will split the Republican vote more than the Democratic vote.
We'll have to see how it plays out in a couple of years, as it is the state has steadily been moving more blue and this last election showed that. Not sure what she's hoping to gain out of this other than going full Karen, there are no real upsides for her other than screwing those who voted for her.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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We'll have to see how it plays out in a couple of years, as it is the state has steadily been moving more blue and this last election showed that. Not sure what she's hoping to gain out of this other than going full Karen, there are no real upsides for her other than screwing those who voted for her.


Read somewhere that Republican gerrymandering eventually might end up biting them in the ass as Democrats start moving to more affordable states and areas.

But have no fear, Republicans! Soon after they're suffocating cost of living will arrive with them! Just ask Idaho, a state almost completely forgotten about for at least my entire lifetime.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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CNN reported that she has voted with the Biden administration 93% of the time. Given her behavior this made me realize another form of disingenuous reporting that frequently gets said about other members of Congress. Most legislation doesn’t even make it to a vote or gets watered down to the point where both parties can barely stomach it. In Sinema’s case she gave us a quite public masterclass on how unaligned with the party a member is regardless of their votes.

It’s like if a guy goes out and buys his first gun and then goes straight home and shoots his wife and the news reports it as “Man has killed 100% of the people he has aimed a gun at” giving the impression he’s a prolific sniper or serial killer.
 

ronntaylor

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Haven't made an out of state political contribution in years. Ruben Gallego will be getting my support, financially and more, should he take the plunge.


Dems need to ramp up the 2024 campaign against her starting yesterday!
 

lizkat

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CNN reported that she has voted with the Biden administration 93% of the time. Given her behavior this made me realize another form of disingenuous reporting that frequently gets said about other members of Congress. Most legislation doesn’t even make it to a vote or gets watered down to the point where both parties can barely stomach it. In Sinema’s case she gave us a quite public masterclass on how unaligned with the party a member is regardless of their votes.

It’s like if a guy goes out and buys his first gun and then goes straight home and shoots his wife and the news reports it as “Man has killed 100% of the people he has aimed a gun at” giving the impression he’s a prolific sniper or serial killer.

Well it's not quite like that last bit. But the rest is on the money and both parties engage in it. It goes beyond the kind of cross-party negotiation that used to occur, because there's so much venom between the parties of the legislators now.

Everyone has to get their own personal demand as part of "our vote for your piece of crap is really gonna cost you" no matter who sponsored the bill to begin with, even when or sometimes especially when it's bipartisan, because the extremes can loathe the centrists as much as they loathe each other.

Nowadays any tinkering that actually turns up "win win" for constituents is an accident, like someone needed a drink and shut down a meeting that was supposed to be another grab for a lobby or donor.

I wanted to believe Sinema's BS when she first showed up, statements along lines of what she put into her op-ed. I'm not opposed to bipartisan legislating, I favor it when it is for something that feels like a third rail for either party to take on separately but the country needs. But I don't favor it when the bill becomes a Christmas tree for donors and perpetual campaigners in CongressCritter clothes, and the substance of the bill ends up short of teeth or money to implement properly. These guys are supposed to work for benefit of constituents, not just K street and captains of industry.
 
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