Putin is ready to launch invasion of Nato nations to test West

[Eric]

Putin is ready to launch invasion of Nato nations to test West, warns Polish spy boss

Vladimir Putin is ready to launch an invasion of Nato nations and annex parts of Estonia and Sweden to test the West, the head of Poland's counterintelligence service has warned.

www.lbc.co.uk

Vladimir Putin is ready to launch an invasion of Nato nations and annex parts of Estonia and Sweden to test the West, the head of Poland's counterintelligence service has warned.

Jarosław Stróżyk said Putin is in a position where he could begin planning a small-scale invasion but is holding back due to the West's response to the attack in Ukraine.

"Putin is certainly already prepared for some mini-operation against one of the Baltic countries, for example, to enter the famous Narva [municipality in Estonia] or to land on one of the Swedish islands," Mr Stróżyk told Polish paper Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

He added: "What the West is doing together to support Ukraine shows him that in the event of an attack on Nato, the Western response would be even greater."

He said his predictions over a potential attack are only based on a few presumptions from agencies but Russia is capable of making such a move.

It comes as several member states have already begun alerting citizens about potential Russian aggression.

 

[Citysnaps]

NATO? After needing to recruit Cuban nationals (promising high pay and Russian passports) to help fight its war in Ukraine?

If Putin is crazy enough to to go after a NATO member, I think the response would be pretty swift. Even with him saber rattling with tactical nukes.

 

[rdrr]

If November goes Trump's way, I give this report more credence. It's sad to say that there would be little response from the US. Any MAGA defenders here care to explain this away?

 

[Eric]

If November goes Trump's way, I give this report more credence. It's sad to say that there would be little response from the US. Any MAGA defenders here care to explain this away?

There's only one defender here and Trump could send American troops to back Russia and he would still back him. There is no reasoning with his supporters, best we can do is work to beat them at the ballot box.

 

[GermanSuplex]

If November goes Trump's way, I give this report more credence. It's sad to say that there would be little response from the US. Any MAGA defenders here care to explain this away?

"I like his policies."

 

[Citysnaps]

If November goes Trump's way, I give this report more credence. It's sad to say that there would be little response from the US. Any MAGA defenders here care to explain this away?

trump as US president, and likely denying US support, would certainly reduce a lot of risk for Putin trying something like that. Though he'd still have to deal with the UK, Germany, France, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Canada, Belgium, Italy, and the 22 other NATO members.

 

[fooferdoggie]

trump as US president, and likely denying US support, would certainly reduce a lot of risk for Putin trying something like that. Though he'd still have to deal with the UK, Germany, France, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Canada, Belgium, Italy, and the 22 other NATO members.

well unless he dumps nato

 

[Citysnaps]

well unless he dumps nato

From my (very limited) understanding... trump can probably deny US support, and perhaps even withdraw from NATO (with a 2/3 Senate majority, or an act of Congress).

But I don't think he can shut down NATO on behalf of other countries.

 

[fooferdoggie]

From my (very limited) understanding... trump can probably deny US support, and perhaps even withdraw from NATO (with a 2/3 Senate majority, or an act of Congress).

But I don't think he can shut down NATO on behalf of other countries.

no but he just needs to get the US out and that will give Putin a green light.

 

[Citysnaps]

no but he just needs to get the US out and that will give Putin a green light.

I think that's where it gets fuzzy. I believe he *could* deny sending troops to participate in a NATO response to Putin.

But actually withdrawing from NATO would require a 2/3 Senate vote, or, an act of Congress (a simple majority of both houses). Either one would work, I believe

And either of the above (the US denying assistance or withdrawing) would greatly benefit Putin.

But... he'd still be facing some very powerful NATO militaries (UK/Germany/France/Norway/Sweden/Italy/etc).

 

[KingOfPain]

Unless Putin intends to use nukes and start the WW3, I don't really see that happening.
They are using very old tanks and APCs in Ukraine, because they almost ran out of any newer weapons. And they are burning through soldiers like crazy, but that seems to be the standard Russian military doctrine.

He might get Estonia. I'm pretty sure the Estonians would fight like hell, but it's a somewhat smallish country and I think one third of their defence budget is going to Ukraine, because they know how it feels to live under Russian rule.

Poland has increased their defence spending by a lot. It's actually so much that other European states should be worried if Poland should get ambitious in terms of land acquisition.

Sweden? If they wanted to try it by land, they'd have to go through Finland first. That never was in Russia's favour. They'd have a guerrilla war even worse than in Ukraine. More woods, less roads, and almost anyone in Finland knows how to use a rifle.
By sea? They'd have to transfer everything to Kaliningrad first (no small feat), and then they'd have to pass hundreds if not thousands of small islands, some of which are equipped with some of the best anti-ship weapons in the world, to get to Sweden. If the Russian navy has problems with Ukraine, who didn't have a proper navy and now have none at all, they will have a very hard time against the Swedish navy. And I believe only Russian carrier is in the wrong sea, apart from the fact that it's a real joke and often has to be towed.

I'm sure they'd have less resistance in Germany, since the German army has been a bit of a joke in the last decades, but luckily there are a few other countries between Russia and Germany.

 

[rdrr]

Unless Putin intends to use nukes and start the WW3, I don't really see that happening.
They are using very old tanks and APCs in Ukraine, because they almost ran out of any newer weapons. And they are burning through soldiers like crazy, but that seems to be the standard Russian military doctrine.

He might get Estonia. I'm pretty sure the Estonians would fight like hell, but it's a somewhat smallish country and I think one third of their defence budget is going to Ukraine, because they know how it feels to live under Russian rule.

Poland has increased their defence spending by a lot. It's actually so much that other European states should be worried if Poland should get ambitious in terms of land acquisition.

Sweden? If they wanted to try it by land, they'd have to go through Finland first. That never was in Russia's favour. They'd have a guerrilla war even worse than in Ukraine. More woods, less roads, and almost anyone in Finland knows how to use a rifle.
By sea? They'd have to transfer everything to Kaliningrad first (no small feat), and then they'd have to pass hundreds if not thousands of small islands, some of which are equipped with some of the best anti-ship weapons in the world, to get to Sweden. If the Russian navy has problems with Ukraine, who didn't have a proper navy and now have none at all, they will have a very hard time against the Swedish navy. And I believe only Russian carrier is in the wrong sea, apart from the fact that it's a real joke and often has to be towed.

I'm sure they'd have less resistance in Germany, since the German army has been a bit of a joke in the last decades, but luckily there are a few other countries between Russia and Germany.

Actually I think Finland would jump in if Russia invaded Estonia. Finland and Estonia are very tight, and many Finns would be up in arms and uneasy, because Tallinn is only a short ferry ride.

I think the article mentioned that Russia probably would put troops on one of the many islands comprised of Sweden, or maybe the island nation Åland.

 

[Herdfan]

Given that the Russian military can't even take Ukraine, how do they think they can take any NATO country?

Do they even have enough assets to fight two wars?

 

[rdrr]

Given that the Russian military can't even take Ukraine, how do they think they can take any NATO country?

Do they even have enough assets to fight two wars?

Recently they accused the PM of Estonia of a crime, and maybe Putin is gambling that Estonia is too small for NATO to risk a full scale war. The former is kinda what Putin did with Ukraine, and the latter is just speculation.

 

[cbum]

"Putin is in a position where he could begin planning a small-scale invasion but is holding back"

This is just idiotic clickbait. Putin, or any of his predecessors, have always been in that "position"...

 

[dada_dave]

With what?

Not that I doubt his intentions and had the invasion of Ukraine gone according to their plans we'd be facing that reality (although Moldova would've be fucked first and likely immediately), but even if they scrape together a consolation prize of the current territories seized in Ukraine, it'll take years for their Army to recover enough (fewer than it should in that scenario but nonetheless) to test NATO much less challenge it outright (that is if we don't elect Trump and destroy NATO, while Europe acting in concert still has quite a substantial military capability, right now NATO is what allows them to act in concert, the binding glue). Right now if Ukraine had the forces (and we let them), there are few to no troops guarding much of the Russian border - they could theoretically do a lot more than just border raids. Everything of offensive capability Russia has is in Ukraine as is most of their defensive capability. So it's not that this is not a concern eventually ... but that possible future is simply more a reason to help Ukraine defeat Russia as best as we can if that's still on the cards. Which to be fair, given the context of his remarks, is really what he's going for.

That doesn't mean "gray zone" attacks on people, institutions, and infrastructure throughout Europe won't continue as they have since before 2014. They will and yes will especially target the Baltics, the Nordics, and Eastern/Central Europe.