Afghanistan (Again)

Scepticalscribe

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I am not following this. Was the idea that we already saw the future that the Afghan security forces would just let the Taliban waltz in? Because that’s the only scenario I can imagine where this makes even the slightest bit of sense.

And in that case how would that work? Take out all the equipment and leave them defenseless?

The plan was that the Afghan forces would use the equipment to defend the official government. Once that collapsed, how do you think “blow it up” is even remotely a way to get rid of equipment spread all over the country? So bomb everything to oblivion? Weren’t we supposed to get out of there?

You cannot take all the equipment away and expect the Afghan army to defend themselves. If they started carting all the equipment out a year before the pullout, the Taliban would have immediately attacked and you would probably only get the first couple shipments out of there before it was too late.

I cannot believe people gave thumbs-up to a “solution” as ignorant as “blow it up.”

I hear you.

However, - and I write this with real reluctance - if the alternative is having such equipment falling into the hands of an outfit such as the Taliban, I would quite seriously advocate (and I write as someone who spent the best part of two years in Afghanistan) "blowing it up" and thereby ensuring that they cannot avail of it, above all, that they cannot avail of it to harm us, and threaten our interests and allies.

Obviously, it would have been preferable, and far better to have ensured that such equipment was handed over - prior to the US abrupt departure - to the Afghan security forces (not all of their security forces were poor, and to say so does them a grave disservice; their special forces were very well trained and motivated) along with the means to maintain and use such equipment.
 

Scepticalscribe

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One: For 20 years, politicians, elites and D.C. military leaders lied to us about Afghanistan.

Two: What happened last week was inevitable, and anyone saying differently is still lying to you.

He nailed it.
I have some depressing thoughts on this and am debating, or mulling over, just how to express them.
 
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I am not following this. Was the idea that we already saw the future that the Afghan security forces would just let the Taliban waltz in? Because that’s the only scenario I can imagine where this makes even the slightest bit of sense.

And in that case how would that work? Take out all the equipment and leave them defenseless?

The plan was that the Afghan forces would use the equipment to defend the official government. Once that collapsed, how do you think “blow it up” is even remotely a way to get rid of equipment spread all over the country? So bomb everything to oblivion? Weren’t we supposed to get out of there?

You cannot take all the equipment away and expect the Afghan army to defend themselves. If they started carting all the equipment out a year before the pullout, the Taliban would have immediately attacked and you would probably only get the first couple shipments out of there before it was too late.

I cannot believe people gave thumbs-up to a “solution” as ignorant as “blow it up.”

Yeah, I don’t really understand the “weapons” argument. Are we saying the Taliban was able to take over so quickly because they used those American weapons or that now that they have taken over, they will have access to those American weapons? If the weapons were for Afghan army use, then should we have removed them before the Taliban takeover, if we knew that the Afghan army could never have beaten the Taliban?
 

GermanSuplex

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Tim Kaine just made a great point on MSNBC - if we can’t convince our own citizens to get vaccinated or believe the last election was legit, what makes us think we ever had a chance of building a true democracy in an entire middle-east nation?

This was always how it was going to play out, and maybe even worse if we prolonged it. As I mentioned, I don’t see this hurting Biden long-term. If this had been a slow, systematic descent into chaos over the course of a decade, it could easily be argued the U.S. pullout effort was botched. Instead, it was 11 days. That to me alone proves the only botch was going there and trying to nation-build in the first place.

The bigger point is that it’s incredibly sad we ever stayed their that long, and many people who had hope are now in danger. I hate to make it about Biden, because it’s really not, but the truth is that he could have punted again, but he made the choice to take the heat and end a losing war for the United States. So I’m relieved for America and sad for the Afghans and other people in danger.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

SuperMatt

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I hear you.

However, - and I write this with real reluctance - if the alternative is having such equipment falling into the hands of an outfit such as the Taliban, I would quite seriously advocate (and I write as someone who spent the best part of two years in Afghanistan) "blowing it up" and thereby ensuring that they cannot avail of it, above all, that they cannot avail of it to harm us, and threaten our interests and allies.

Obviously, it would have been preferable, and far better to have ensured that such equipment was handed over - prior to the US abrupt departure - to the Afghan security forces (not all of their security forces were poor, and to say so does them a grave disservice; their special forces were very well trained and motivated) along with the means to maintain and use such equipment.
I thought all the equipment was handed over before the withdrawal. But since the Afghan army folded in a week, it now belongs to the Taliban basically.
 

SuperMatt

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Yeah, I don’t really understand the “weapons” argument. Are we saying the Taliban was able to take over so quickly because they used those American weapons or that now that they have taken over, they will have access to those American weapons? If the weapons were for Afghan army use, then should we have removed them before the Taliban takeover, if we knew that the Afghan army could never have beaten the Taliban?
That’s what I was trying to say but you put it much more succinctly.
 

lizkat

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I have some depressing thoughts on this and am debating, or mulling over, just how to express them.

My depressing thoughts --on that brief piece by the former Marine captain at least-- would run to asking how much more useful are his remarks now than are those of the retired generals and DoD guys and former Nat Sec chiefs lately.... i.e. they're all implicitly copping now to inability or unwillingness before now to have persuaded their superiors of their thoughts while on active military duty or in other government service.

The buck always stops at the President's desk but he's not likely to have all the info he might need to make a best call on anything if too many down the line inputs are squelched.

Sure there must be filters. There's a story "Funes the Memorious" (by Jorge Luis Borges) in which the protagonist suffers from absorbing and remembering every detail of everything all the time (as result of a head injury suffered falling off a horse). He of course completely loses all those wonderful and essential human abilities to generalize, to abstract, to synthesize... and finds himself spiraling into the morass of his own mind, essentially spending all of each day just to catalogue the day's details.​

Of course in reality, our leaders need gatekeepers and filters amongst their subordinates. The question is how siloed each level up from the battlefield should be.

The veteran Marine captain and now Senate candidate Lucas Kunce is not wrong in his Kansas City Star op-ed piece, and he's been refreshingly succinct. But his observations are from long hindsight, and the missing part of "lessons learned" remains this: why can't we refrain from "mission creep" while it's happening and while we're lying about the fact that it's happening as well as that it's not working?

Everyone makes mistakes. Biggest mistake resides in denying that fact. Après moi, le déluge... of more mistakes, and the series of self-centered concerns about losing position or livelihood. With the US experience in Afghanistan there were even times when players with a fair amount of power copped to the fact that "this is not working" but then we poured another billion bucks into the hole to finish out the week and shuffled the paperwork to get the next surge or regular rotation of troops deployed. And sent all those overclassified cables about how messed up things were, as if that weren't common knowledge among many more people than those cleared to read the things.

I get the need for filters and sequestered discussions and certainly for diplomatic protocol... even in the civilian world there are such things. I remember my boss standing up one day in a fairly large conference of in-house clients and her project team, after her counterpart on the client side had suddenly launched into berating one of his own subordinates in front of the whole group. My boss then gestured for the rest of her team to stand up too, quickly gathered up her papers, nodded at her counterpart --who had abruptly stopped speaking-- and said "We'll reschedule, so you can get these details squared away privately" and turned around and just walked out, with us in tow.

In the elevator she said to us "Don't ever let your clients embarrass each other in your presence if you can help it: it's bad for business and can reflect badly on you."

Still, in affairs of government, when it's clear that someone on the other side of any negotiation is behaving like an [expletives deleted] and there's limited ability on one's own side to change that behavior, there comes a time when it seems futile to bury acknowledgment of that fact among the other side's members in classified cables or triple-walled digital document safes. Especially if the media have been saying the quiet part out loud for years, based on reliable if anonymous sources on the inside. Go-along and get-along and averting eyes from naked emperors eventually comes off as pandering, ass covering or worse, perhaps a nod to corruption that keeps an untenable situation rolling. All the more infuriating when the dam breaks and everyone suddenly sees a tsunami and calls it that.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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On all the equipment left behind...Seems like the final insult in our military budget bloat. Gee, I guess we'll just have to manufacture more to replace what was left behind.
 

lizkat

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Exactly. We left to get out of wars, not start new ones.

Who the F knows. We might be leaving because someone thinks we've run out that string and it's time to do west Africa right.

OK I've turned into a real cynic. What other rational response is there after the US spends 20 years in Vietnam and 20 in Afghanistan and all the while carrying on about both "light at the end of the tunnel" and "lessons learned". The lesson for foreign invaders is that when a civil war won't quit and resistance to the occupiers gets worse, it's time to move the war machine to greener pastures.

On all the equipment left behind...Seems like the final insult in our military budget bloat. Gee, I guess we'll just have to manufacture more to replace what was left behind.

You got it. Biden thinks to pay for the social programs instead of war expenses. Others have war machine jobs at home in mind.
 

Huntn

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In the Head POS That Keeps On Giving Dept

There have been a lot of posts I have not reviewed so this may have been discussed. Today on MSNBC they are talking about how the Trump Beelzebub Administration undercut the bureaucracy for 4 years to avoid issuing SIV (Special Immigrant Visas) to Afghans for a time like now…
and Shit Head, he is making pronouncements how he could have done it better. Are you fool’d yet or puking? 🤮


 
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Chew Toy McCoy

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You got it. Biden thinks to pay for the social programs instead of war expenses. Others have war machine jobs at home in mind.

We should be declaring a war on failing infrastructure, but we won't because there isn't a large group of people to kill or throw in prison. We won't take action on anything that doesn't include that group of people.
 

JayMysteri0

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Who the F knows. We might be leaving because someone thinks we've run out that string and it's time to do west Africa right.

OK I've turned into a real cynic. What other rational response is there after the US spends 20 years in Vietnam and 20 in Afghanistan and all the while carrying on about both "light at the end of the tunnel" and "lessons learned". The lesson for foreign invaders is that when a civil war won't quit and resistance to the occupiers gets worse, it's time to move the war machine to greener pastures.



You got it. Biden thinks to pay for the social programs instead of war expenses. Others have war machine jobs at home in mind.

Yeah, there's a part of me that thinks that anyone thinking this won't happen again is kidding themselves to the highest degree. If we didn't "learn our lesson" last time, what makes anyone think we will have learned it this time?

On the other hand, getting involved in wars like these does seem to be less popular than ever and I think part of why the MIC is having such a ****-fit over this is that they know we're never going to reinvade Afghanistan and that it will be much more difficult to launch another "forever war".
 

lizkat

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Yeah, there's a part of me that thinks that anyone thinking this won't happen again is kidding themselves to the highest degree. If we didn't "learn our lesson" last time, what makes anyone think we will have learned it this time?

On the other hand, getting involved in wars like these does seem to be less popular than ever and I think part of why the MIC is having such a ****-fit over this is that they know we're never going to reinvade Afghanistan and that it will be much more difficult to launch another "forever war".

One must hope it will be awhile before the next great quagmire. Especially since the Middle East remains so unsettled over the one in Iraq. We haven't even figured out yet how to end the conflict in Yemen, to pick another candidate for catastrophic endings.. And there the proxy managers are essentially the Iranians and us (dragged in via our protectorate Saudia Arabia). Talk about a tinderbox. Man, all these impoverished, tribal placeholders on the world's maps, always the focus of ancient trade routes and today always seemingly parked amid behemoths who don't get along.
 

lizkat

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Well well well look who came out of the woodwork; it’s John Bolton!


He says we should keep troops in Afghanistan forever because it’s the only way to keep Pakistan from starting a nuclear war. Thank goodness this guy is not working in government anymore.

Also Bolton suggests we should "tilt towards India" and "make it clear" to China that it's responsible for Pakistan's behavior re nukes.

India has tilted towards Hindu nationalism big time under Modi. What would it say to Muslims around the world --as we depart Afghanistan after 20 years and let fade the memories of our engagements in Iraq and Syria-- if we cozy up closer to a guy in India now, one who has countenanced stirring up hatred of Muslims in his own country, and has the power to unleash the mutually assured nuclear destruction of India and Pakistan, whether over Kashmir or some other provocation by either party.

Muslims outside India will not be particularly impressed that Indians of non-Hindu cultures (Buddhists, Sikhs) are also in conflict with Hindu nationalists these days) What will stick in their minds if the USA ratchets up sanctions against Pakistan and reduces commerce and aid there, is that the USA is anti-Muslim, period. How does John Bolton figure that's a positive step? Guy remains a rabid neocon. Maybe getting involved in a civil war in India seems like a brilliant move to him, who knows. One can hope India will decline to go there.
 

SuperMatt

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Also Bolton suggests we should "tilt towards India" and "make it clear" to China that it's responsible for Pakistan's behavior re nukes.

India has tilted towards Hindu nationalism big time under Modi. What would it say to Muslims around the world --as we depart Afghanistan after 20 years and let fade the memories of our engagements in Iraq and Syria-- if we cozy up closer to a guy in India now, one who has countenanced stirring up hatred of Muslims in his own country, and has the power to unleash the mutually assured nuclear destruction of India and Pakistan, whether over Kashmir or some other provocation by either party.

Muslims outside India will not be particularly impressed that Indians of non-Hindu cultures (Buddhists, Sikhs) are also in conflict with Hindu nationalists these days) What will stick in their minds if the USA ratchets up sanctions against Pakistan and reduces commerce and aid there, is that the USA is anti-Muslim, period. How does John Bolton figure that's a positive step? Guy remains a rabid neocon. Maybe getting involved in a civil war in India seems like a brilliant move to him, who knows. One can hope India will decline to go there.
In reading his ideas, it sounds like they are geared to start a nuclear war, not prevent one. Really, you want to encourage India and Pakistan to ramp up their conflict? And get China in there too? He is insane.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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