Scepticalscribe
Cancelled
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Not sure if anyone is following what is happening in Belarus at the moment.
I've observed four elections in that country since 2004, and, in a normal world, would have expected to have been there, in Minsk or its environs, for the past few weeks, if not months.
As it happens, I didn't apply to observe the election held in 2016, (although I had been invited to apply) for I would have been sent there had I done so.
Instead, I was despatched to Russia - a mission for which I had also been invited to apply - for a few months in 2016.
However, while this year's election went ahead, the OSCE did not receive an invitation to observe the election, and, had they done so, this is an election observation mission that would have been exceptionally difficult to carry out on account of Covid. A great many countries will not be seconding & sending any observers whatsoever, while others will send observers only in very limited numbers under strict conditions.
While the Chernobyl nuclear accident occurred across the border, in Ukraine, the direction of the wind on that fatal day in April 1986 meant that much of the radioactive material affected several regions in Belarus to a far greater extent, something the authorities were always rather reticent about.
This year, the president received an improbable vote reputedly in excess of 80% of all votes cast, while his leading challenger - the opposition, normally endlessly split, had, on this occasion swallowed their mutual dislikes and endless enmities and rallied and united behind her - is said by official sources to have received an equally implausible 9% of the vote.
The opposition have disputed and challenged this result, and - over the past week - increasing numbers of the population - seem to be somewhat concerned as well.
This is the sort of country where presidential candidates are arrested, detained and bashed to bits on the night of the actual election; in the past, I have met individuals - candidates for president - who were subsequently arrested on election night and beaten to a pulp while in detention.
Demonstrations have taken place (giving rise, last week, to the usual excessive and ferocious police response, a response that seems to have become more muted as the week progressed), and I think it can be said that Mr Lukashenko (the president) is facing the most serious challenge yet to his 26 year rule.
I've observed four elections in that country since 2004, and, in a normal world, would have expected to have been there, in Minsk or its environs, for the past few weeks, if not months.
As it happens, I didn't apply to observe the election held in 2016, (although I had been invited to apply) for I would have been sent there had I done so.
Instead, I was despatched to Russia - a mission for which I had also been invited to apply - for a few months in 2016.
However, while this year's election went ahead, the OSCE did not receive an invitation to observe the election, and, had they done so, this is an election observation mission that would have been exceptionally difficult to carry out on account of Covid. A great many countries will not be seconding & sending any observers whatsoever, while others will send observers only in very limited numbers under strict conditions.
While the Chernobyl nuclear accident occurred across the border, in Ukraine, the direction of the wind on that fatal day in April 1986 meant that much of the radioactive material affected several regions in Belarus to a far greater extent, something the authorities were always rather reticent about.
This year, the president received an improbable vote reputedly in excess of 80% of all votes cast, while his leading challenger - the opposition, normally endlessly split, had, on this occasion swallowed their mutual dislikes and endless enmities and rallied and united behind her - is said by official sources to have received an equally implausible 9% of the vote.
The opposition have disputed and challenged this result, and - over the past week - increasing numbers of the population - seem to be somewhat concerned as well.
This is the sort of country where presidential candidates are arrested, detained and bashed to bits on the night of the actual election; in the past, I have met individuals - candidates for president - who were subsequently arrested on election night and beaten to a pulp while in detention.
Demonstrations have taken place (giving rise, last week, to the usual excessive and ferocious police response, a response that seems to have become more muted as the week progressed), and I think it can be said that Mr Lukashenko (the president) is facing the most serious challenge yet to his 26 year rule.
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