Elon Musk - Tesla FSD price rising to $12k on Jan 17

[Cmaier]

That was caused by either the floor mats causing the pedal to get stuck or the gas pedal itself being sticky.

No fault in the software causing unintended acceleration. And every case accusing that their Tesla accelerated out of control have been proven bunk too.

At least once a week i get in my tesla and the radio doesn’t work. Sometimes I have to call tesla to have them remotely fix it, and other times it starts working again after 24 hours. Almost every day my “favorites” are missing unless I tap dance on the screen to make them come back.

If tesla can’t write software that can make a radio work, I don’t trust them to write software that won’t crash me into the medium at the 85/101 interchange in Mountain View.

 

[quagmire]

At least once a week i get in my tesla and the radio doesn’t work. Sometimes I have to call tesla to have them remotely fix it, and other times it starts working again after 24 hours. Almost every day my “favorites” are missing unless I tap dance on the screen to make them come back.

If tesla can’t write software that can make a radio work, I don’t trust them to write software that won’t crash me into the medium at the 85/101 interchange in Mountain View.

Oh I wouldn't trust FSD either for what people want FSD to be( completely hands off, etc).

I was just stating to the person I was replying to that the case of the whole unintended acceleration issue Toyota's experienced was not software going amok.

 

[Eric]

Oh I wouldn't trust FSD either for what people want FSD to be( completely hands off, etc).

I was just stating to the person I was replying to that the case of the whole unintended acceleration issue Toyota's experienced was not software going amok.

I get it may be a different conversation but even in the best case scenario with the software completely bug free, you still have to have your hands and feet there anyway. It's just hard to justify for that cost on any level.

 

[AG_PhamD]

$12,000, or even $10,000, is an awful lot of money to spend on beta software… and who knows when it will really come into what people really expect it be. I don’t think you can fairly compare the cost to taxis as it’s not like you can sit in the back of the car and relax. Speaking of which, we’re waiting for 2020 to be the year of Tesla robotaxis.

I suppose the value of FSD depends on how long you expect the car to last. I think it’s still a bit too early to really understand the lifespan of EV’s, particularly Teslas. Considering the battery warranty is 8 years, I think it’s fair to assume at least that. Most cars today average 12 years. Obviously once the battery dies the car is done. But if the batteries get 300k-500k miles as claimed, it’s entirely possible if not likely other components of the car will fail before that and be not worth fixing- drive motors, suspension parts, electronics, HVAC system, rust, etc. It’s also worth noting the number of charge/discharge cycles is not the only factor in the lifespan of batteries- time itself degrades them.

But if you can get 11-12 years out of a Tesla, $1,000/yr doesn’t sound too terrible. But most people will sell their car before that. I’m not sure how much value it’ll add on the resale market- probably a fair amount but not nearly as much as you paid.

The way I see it, we are a long ways away from fully autonomous cars. Commercial airliners have millions of dollars of automation packed into them and decades of development but still rely on pilots to oversee the automation. Most big planes have the ability to auto-land (provided appropriate wind conditions and airport hardware), but it’s not a commonly used function. Obviously planes have much bigger safety concerns than cars, but considering how less complex flying through air is than driving on roads and we’re a long ways off from pilotless airliners, I don’t see truly fully autonomous cars and robotaxis being a reality for quite some time, but I’m sure it will happen.

Volvo apparently is soon to release an EV that comes standard with LIDAR for its semi-autonomous driving features. Apparently the company making the LIDAR sensors, Luminar, says they will cost $1000 and could get down to $500. Far cheaper than the many thousands they traditionally cost. Assuming these sensors work reliably and the target price can be met, it’s a pretty exciting capability for manufactures.

 

[Yoused]

Obviously once the battery dies the car is done.

Fortunately, these are not iCars. The battery is entirely replaceable (albeit expensive). If it is a car you really like, or really do not want to do archaeology on, you might well pay the freight. And it is a pretty quick job, AAUI.

 

[quagmire]

Fortunately, these are not iCars. The battery is entirely replaceable (albeit expensive). If it is a car you really like, or really do not want to do archaeology on, you might well pay the freight. And it is a pretty quick job, AAUI.

Think his point is not that the battery isn't replaceable, but it wouldn't make sense to replace the battery economically.

Despite the claims Musk made years ago about battery replacement costs would drop over time, it still costs $22,000 to replace a Model S pack( same as it did back in 2013....) and about $17,000 for a Model 3 pack replacement. Not only is it ridiculously expensive to replace the battery, it isn't even a new battery. It's a remanufactured battery only guaranteed to 70% of a new packs capacity. Oh and if you want the old battery back( apparently some people have wanted the old battery back....), it is now $36,000 to replace one in a Model S.......

 

[AG_PhamD]

Fortunately, these are not iCars. The battery is entirely replaceable (albeit expensive). If it is a car you really like, or really do not want to do archaeology on, you might well pay the freight. And it is a pretty quick job, AAUI.

It’s highly unlikely anyone is going to spend $18-22,000 replacing their battery on an 10+ year old car.

Again, there is this assumption that because EV’s have no engine and (usually) no transmission (Taycan being an exception), that they have an near infinite lifespan. But the reality is they will likely suffer the same wear and treat and failures of other systems that often bring the EOL of ICE vehicles other than the drivetrain when the cost of replacing those parts exceeds the practical value of the car.
I would argue Teslas are like an iCar in that that Tesla will not repair batteries, they will only replace them. That is very unfortunate and similar to an engine having a leaking seal and saying you need to replace the entire engine. It’s something they should really consider changing their policy on.

Tesla claims 300-500k miles of life with current batteries and there are cars that have achieved within that range, but I’m not sure that takes into consideration degradation from age. Typically lithium ion batteries last 10-15 years regardless of use. In other words, I suspect you could drive 500k miles, but only if you accomplish that within a 10-15 year period at the most.

What would be cool is if and when battery technology gets to a point where they have long enough longevity that they outlive the lifespan of the rest of the vehicle. That battery could be transferred to a new vehicle. Perhaps even the drive motor too.

 

[Cmaier]

Think his point is not that the battery isn't replaceable, but it wouldn't make sense to replace the battery economically.

Despite the claims Musk made years ago about battery replacement costs would drop over time, it still costs $22,000 to replace a Model S pack( same as it did back in 2013....) and about $17,000 for a Model 3 pack replacement. Not only is it ridiculously expensive to replace the battery, it isn't even a new battery. It's a remanufactured battery only guaranteed to 70% of a new packs capacity. Oh and if you want the old battery back( apparently some people have wanted the old battery back....), it is now $36,000 to replace one in a Model S.......

Yep. When the battery goes on my 2013 model S, no way i can justify 22k for a degraded replacement pack. Will have to get a new car instead. (At the moment, I guess I’d get a Model 3, as I no longer need the hauling capacity and never really needed the speed of the S. Plus I want an actual steering wheel.)

 

[Eric]

Yep. When the battery goes on my 2013 model S, no way i can justify 22k for a degraded replacement pack. Will have to get a new car instead. (At the moment, I guess I’d get a Model 3, as I no longer need the hauling capacity and never really needed the speed of the S. Plus I want an actual steering wheel.)

Sounds like a pretty good life for a car though, also seems like you liked it enough to buy a newer model too. I was the same way with BMWs for many years and kept upgrading them before finally making the move to Tesla.

 

[Cmaier]

Sounds like a pretty good life for a car though, also seems like you liked it enough to buy a newer model too. I was the same way with BMWs for many years and kept upgrading them before finally making the move to Tesla.

I’m too lazy to rip out my tesla charger and replace it with something else

If the apple car comes out I’ll buy that. .

 

[Yoused]

I’m too lazy to rip out my tesla charger and replace it with something else

There is an actual charger? I thought that was in the car and you just had to get the 240 out of the wall.

 

[Cmaier]

There is an actual charger? I thought that was in the car and you just had to get the 240 out of the wall.

You can do that. But I have an older version of this:

Wall Connector | Tesla Support

Wall Connector is the most convenient charging solution for homes, hospitality properties and workplaces. View the charging speed based on your model and find out how to install a Wall Connector.

www.tesla.com

It’s installed on the wall and has its own circuit, with a bypass switch and everything.

Mine actually charges at 80A. So that charges much faster than a 240V outlet. (Photo attached).

 

[DT]

There is an actual charger? I thought that was in the car and you just had to get the 240 out of the wall.

Yes, for AC supplied power, like Level 1 and 2 charging, the vehicle has the actual charger onboard.

However, you can't just plug a cord into a 240v outlet and the other end into the car. That's where that device you hang on the wall, comes into play - it's not a "charger" but an EVSE (it's pretty common to call it a charger), which is basically a power switch, some simple communication protocols and a specific car-side connector. That's how you get the 240v out of the wall

While you can hardwire an EVSE (see the post above mine), there's also a large number of products that plug-in to an outlet, and max out at 40amps, since the two NEMA high output outlet and circuit specs (N6-50 and N14-50) have a max of 50a (for an EV, you should only pull about 80% of the max circuit output).

Ours is below, the plug spec for the EVSE (aka, "charger") is 240v/40a using an N6-50, and it's plugged into a 50a circuit with an N6-50 receptacle.

FWIW, when you charge at a Supercharger or any DCFC, that's DC Fast Charging, i.e., it's actually supplying DC power, and that bypasses the onboard charger and goes directly to the batteries.

 

[diamond.g]

At least once a week i get in my tesla and the radio doesn’t work. Sometimes I have to call tesla to have them remotely fix it, and other times it starts working again after 24 hours. Almost every day my “favorites” are missing unless I tap dance on the screen to make them come back.

If tesla can’t write software that can make a radio work, I don’t trust them to write software that won’t crash me into the medium at the 85/101 interchange in Mountain View.

They really should have stopped updating AP1 models a long time ago. It seems like every change they made to you guy’s cars just broke stuff that worked fine before.


As as aside is anyone here actually in the FSD (SIIIIGH) Beta. They really should have called it NoA City Streets, but what do I know.

 

[Cmaier]

They really should have stopped updating AP1 models a long time ago. It seems like every change they made to you guy’s cars just broke stuff that worked fine before.


As as aside is anyone here actually in the FSD (SIIIIGH) Beta. They really should have called it NoA City Streets, but what do I know.

Yep. And good to see you here!

 

[Eric]

Yes, for AC supplied power, like Level 1 and 2 charging, the vehicle has the actual charger onboard.

However, you can't just plug a cord into a 240v outlet and the other end into the car. That's where that device you hang on the wall, comes into play - it's not a "charger" but an EVSE (it's pretty common to call it a charger), which is basically a power switch, some simple communication protocols and a specific car-side connector. That's how you get the 240v out of the wall

While you can hardwire an EVSE (see the post above mine), there's also a large number of products that plug-in to an outlet, and max out at 40amps, since the two NEMA high output outlet and circuit specs (N6-50 and N14-50) have a max of 50a (for an EV, you should only pull about 80% of the max circuit output).

Ours is below, the plug spec for the EVSE (aka, "charger") is 240v/40a using an N6-50, and it's plugged into a 50a circuit with an N6-50 receptacle.

FWIW, when you charge at a Supercharger or any DCFC, that's DC Fast Charging, i.e., it's actually supplying DC power, and that bypasses the onboard charger and goes directly to the batteries.

View attachment 11023

So are you getting any more than 32 amps out of that on the 50 amp circuit?

 

[DT]

So are you getting any more than 32 amps out of that on the 50 amp circuit?

Yes, for the Tesla we get 40amps, the max rating of the Grizzl-E box. That's about 36 miles/hour charge rate.

The Wrangler only supports 32amps, but that's all negotiated between the vehicle and EVSE, so the only change I make when charging either is whether I stick on the Tesla adapter.

 

[DT]

Yep. When the battery goes on my 2013 model S, no way i can justify 22k for a degraded replacement pack. Will have to get a new car instead. (At the moment, I guess I’d get a Model 3, as I no longer need the hauling capacity and never really needed the speed of the S. Plus I want an actual steering wheel.)

My Model 3 has been pretty much flawless. It's never not worked in any capacity, I've done a full reset twice (and the second time was after an update, which I stopped doing ...). My wipers wipe when needed or I simply tap the stalk, my interior electronics have functioned as expected, it's fast, looks great, roomy, the Model 3 has a nice tight feel like a 3-series with an M-sport package, the size is just right.

I considered an S LR, but didn't really need the bit of extra room (that comes at the expense of a bigger car with slightly more lethargic handling), had no desire for a rear seat display (even the little G who loves gaming said, "Why?"), and the current S LR and my Model 3 Performance are roughly equivalent in performance. The extra range is nice, but after some what if plotting on ABRP, it didn't make much difference on our typical trips and for a car I'll probably drive 300-400 miles a month, I couldn't justify the $20K difference. I will say if the Performance flavor came with the air suspension, but was another $5K, I would absolutely have done that.

If this car wasn't exceeding my expectations, I'd just return it, hahaha, the current early termination cost is $0.00

 

[Yoused]

FWIW, when you charge at a Supercharger or any DCFC, that's DC Fast Charging, i.e., it's actually supplying DC power, and that bypasses the onboard charger and goes directly to the batteries.

I get that the charger is primarily a fat bridge circuit that you need to have in there ITFP for regen braking (I think I read of some car or cars that have supercaps to catch as much of that as possible, but they would still need the bridge from the A/C motor), but where is charge management? Do the battery packs themselves have logic to prevent overcharging?

My other question would be about cold weather. I read that lithium batteries have some issues with charging properly when it is cold out. Does anyone include reverse cooling (warming them up a little) to mitigate that?

 

[DT]

I get that the charger is primarily a fat bridge circuit that you need to have in there ITFP for regen braking (I think I read of some car or cars that have supercaps to catch as much of that as possible, but they would still need the bridge from the A/C motor), but where is charge management? Do the battery packs themselves have logic to prevent overcharging?

My other question would be about cold weather. I read that lithium batteries have some issues with charging properly when it is cold out. Does anyone include reverse cooling (warming them up a little) to mitigate that?

I assume even with direct DC there's a decent amount of hardware/software inbetween/at the battery and the (external) charger.

Yes, there's pre-warming (aka, "pre-conditioning"), in the case of Tesla, if you choose a Supercharger as your destination, it begins the process at the appropriate time (you can also do this at home with scheduled charging).