More on the Chinese balloon US overflight

[Citysnaps]

Damn... And I thought PRC leadership was surveying US weather to find ideal locations for building new vacation resorts.

Here's the latest:

Chinese Balloon Had Tools to Collect Electronic Communications, U.S. Says (Published 2023)

China’s surveillance balloons have flown over more than 40 countries and are directed by the Chinese military, the State Department said. The F.B.I. is studying debris.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Eric]

Damn... And I thought PRC leadership was surveying US weather to find ideal locations for building new vacation resorts.

Here's the latest:

Chinese Balloon Had Tools to Collect Electronic Communications, U.S. Says (Published 2023)

China’s surveillance balloons have flown over more than 40 countries and are directed by the Chinese military, the State Department said. The F.B.I. is studying debris.

www.nytimes.com

The only issue I have with this is how long it took them to address it, that entire time it was likely beaming all kinds of intel back to them. I don't care who the president/party is, this was a blatant spying attempt and any country would be alarmed by it.

 

[NT1440]

I’ve got some yellow cake for you…

 

[Citysnaps]

The only issue I have with this is how long it took them to address it, that entire time it was likely beaming all kinds of intel back to them. I don't care who the president/party is, this was a blatant spying attempt and any country would be alarmed by it.

I think we're OK. Multiple sources have claimed sensitive systems were silenced during the time the balloon was over the US. My feeling is we already knew what these Chinese "weather" balloons were really about looong ago. Of course that information wasn't made public.

This last balloon was probably detected and its purpose assessed within an hour of launch. And for sure by the time it crossed over the Aleutian Islands.

With the balloon being shadowed by U-2 reconnaissance aircraft, possibly not long after launch (when it was out of PRC airspace), no doubt we collected tons of intelligence on what the craft was about, what it was collecting, and how it communicated back to the PRC (guessing via satellite). And possibly snagged some very excellent photos.

The above is my conjecture, of course...

 

[Cmaier]

The only issue I have with this is how long it took them to address it, that entire time it was likely beaming all kinds of intel back to them. I don't care who the president/party is, this was a blatant spying attempt and any country would be alarmed by it.

I read this morning that (1) the U.S. made sure to turn off any communications in the vicinity of the balloon once they discovered it, and (2) the balloon stopped transmitting to china once it was discovered.

Therefore they made a determination that there was more value to be gained from monitoring it than from shooting it down right away.

 

[Citysnaps]

One thing I picked up in the story was: "The agency said the balloon had multiple antennas in an array that was “likely capable of collecting and geo-locating communications.”

That's consistent with the length of the boom (100+ feet) underneath the balloon. And with such a long baseline (and relatively low altitude), where there could also be multiple shorter baselines within the boom's length, every single emitter within view of the craft and over a very wide range of frequencies, could be precisely geolocated to within a few feet (conjecture, no math involved). That's impressive.

 

[NT1440]

I read this morning that (1) the U.S. made sure to turn off any communications in the vicinity of the balloon once they discovered it, and (2) the balloon stopped transmitting to china once it was discovered.

Therefore they made a determination that there was more value to be gained from monitoring it than from shooting it down right away.

They flew signal jamming reconnaissance planes near it to block anything outbound. China turned nothing off, because with those signal jammers the balloon wouldn’t be capable of getting a command to change configurations.

That’s just one of the many reasons the reporting on this whole balloon nonsense doesn’t pass the sniff test.

 

[NT1440]

One thing I picked up in the story was: "The agency said the balloon had multiple antennas in an array that was “likely capable of collecting and geo-locating communications.”

That's consistent with the length of the boom (100+ feet) underneath the balloon. And with such a long baseline (and relatively low altitude), where there could also be multiple shorter baselines within the boom's length, every single emitter within view of the craft and over a very wide range of frequencies, could be precisely geolocated to within a few feet (conjecture, no math involved). That's impressive.

Don’t weather balloons use UHF for receiving and transmitting signals? To go around the globe that requires a pretty big antenna. You remember the old TV UHF dishes right?

 

[Eric]

They flew signal jamming reconnaissance planes near it to block anything outbound. China turned nothing off, because with those signal jammers the balloon wouldn’t be capable of getting a command to change configurations.

That’s just one of the many reasons the reporting on this whole balloon nonsense doesn’t pass the sniff test.

Man, I have to say the dismissal and excuses for what was clearly a sophisticated spy device is off the charts. Just trying to understand such a hardlined defense here, nobody is disputing what this really was other than the Chinese government.

 

[Citysnaps]

China turned nothing off, because with those signal jammers the balloon wouldn’t be capable of getting a command to change configurations.

How do you *know* China turned nothing off? Do you have credible inside information?

That’s just one of the many reasons the reporting on this whole balloon nonsense doesn’t pass the sniff test.

It certainly passes my "sniff test" and it appears many others as well.

Like Eric above, I'm curious why you believe it's nonsense. Rather than a legitimate and very serious threat to the US, which it is. And apparently a threat to many other countries.

 

[NT1440]

Man, I have to say the dismissal and excuses for what was clearly a sophisticated spy device is off the charts. Just trying to understand such a hardlined defense here, nobody is disputing what this really was other than the Chinese government.

I’ve got some yellow cake for you, and aluminum tubes, and babies thrown out of incubators, and viagra for soldiers, and super deadly nerve agents that don’t kill CNN reporters who openly sniff them off backpacks for you.

Recent history is full of absolute BS from my country, and the stenographers in the media who play along in lock step.

Regarding the “babies thrown from incubators”, that was the daughter of the Kuwaiti ambassador’s daughter (pretending to be a nurse) testifying in front of the world as part of the push for the first Gulf War. No one pushed back in that at the time either.

Nayirah testimony - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Regarding Aluminum Tubes, that was referencing the lies that lead up to Iraq War. We said they ordered tubes for centrifuges, when every actual expert on industrial centrifuges openly stated that they weren’t suitable to be used in such a fashion.

Yellow Cake, again a lie of omission in the run up to Iraq. We were told Iraq wanted to secure a large amount of Yellow Cake uranium for its (nonexistent) WMD program. Iraq did ask for yellow cake from Niger…in the 80’s, but the bush administration repackaged it as current Intel as one of many many manipulations of the narrative.

What I’m getting at is every major US undertaking in my lifetime has years later been proven to be based on lies and carefully leaked partial information or complete misinformation.

I’m young, but this is all I’ve ever known from my country. My question is when nothing ever changes in this pattern, why do people lap up the easy enemy-building narratives? Every. Single. Time.

 

[Eric]

I’ve got some yellow cake for you, and aluminum tubes, and babies thrown out of incubators, and viagra for soldiers, and super deadly nerve agents that don’t kill CNN reporters who openly sniff them off backpacks for you.

Recent history is full of absolute BS from my country, and the stenographers in the media who play along in lock step.

Alrighty then, no arguing with that.

 

[NT1440]

How do you *know* China turned nothing off? Do you have credible inside information?



It certainly passes my "sniff test" and it appears many others as well.

Like Eric above, I'm curious why you believe it's nonsense. Rather than a legitimate and very serious threat to the US, which it is. And apparently a threat to many other countries.

We have a $300+ million balloon program of our own.

This balloon nonsense pales in comparison to actual espionage from other countries, what I don’t understand is how this mole hill got turned into a mountain.

We’re all probing critical infrastructure, playing cyber games, inserting actual spies into each other’s countries, wiretapping heads of state, etc. Thats spy craft, and it’s always happening in the background.

Understanding the sheer scale of espionage that is engaged in at all times by all major countries, this pitiful balloon stuff has been blown way out of proportion which is why to my eye it’s just a really low effort propaganda operation that took on a life of its own.

Remember when Bloomberg reported that basically every major data center had secret Chinese chips? THAT would be something that would rise to an actual threat. But of course it was a lie, never retracted, so we moved on.

I’m not going to participate in the manufacturing of consent for our upcoming war with China. I’ve been watching this space since the Bush administration. America can’t deal with not being the global hegemon, and that’s all this is about at the end of the day.

You may disagree with me, find my views repugnant, think I’m anti-American, whatever. But these are my views based on my hobby of reading real investigative journalists and countless books of how the world of espionage and propaganda work and have been used in the past.

I’m not trolling, not being contrarian, these are my understanding of the world based on the information I consume. If PRSI was still a thing at MR you’d see I’ve always been interested in these topics and speaking uncomfortable truths to power.

 

[Citysnaps]

This balloon nonsense pales in comparison to actual espionage from other countries, what I don’t understand is how this mole hill got turned into a mountain.

In previous posts I explained in understandable technical terms how balloon collection platforms can collect some signals intelligence that satellites are not able to collect.

Yet you quickly broad brush that as nonsense. With absolutely nothing to back that up.

Please feel free to refute what I wrote with some technical meat behind your assertions, and then we'll be able to have a more productive discussion.

 

[NT1440]

In previous posts I explained how balloon collection platforms can collect some signals intelligence that satellites are not able to collect.

Yet you quickly broad brush that as nonsense. With absolutely nothing to back that up.

Please feel free to refute what I wrote, and then we'll be able to have a more productive discussion.

Yes, I read that post and there’s nothing wrong with it. But the capability technically existing doesn’t mean that’s what’s actually happening here.

I don’t have to prove that this isn’t happening, the people make the claims that it IS are the ones with the onus.

“Reporting” from news sources aren’t proof of anything. I lived through Iraq, Syria, Libya, Somalia, etc. Something being in the news uncritically just passing along what intelligence or defense officials state isn’t reporting. It’s not adversarial journalism, it’s a confluence if Capital and intelligence interests. There has been no proof or evidence presented to the public at this time, just assertions from those dirty dealing agencies.

See post #11 for examples of complete lies taken at face value at the time.

 

[Citysnaps]

Yes, I read that post and there’s nothing wrong with it.

Do you really understand the point I was making?

But the capability technically existing doesn’t mean that’s what’s actually happening here.

What would be your solution to China collecting important signals intelligence that they can't otherwise collect via satellite?

Why would a giant weather balloon, that looks like no other weather balloon on the planet, have a 100+ foot boom suspended underneath with antennas, equipment, and enough solar panels to produce a kilowatt (maybe more) of power?

Also...what do YOU believe is the purpose of these unusual looking and equipped balloons is, that are sent over the US by a hostile country? Feel free to speculate.

 

[NT1440]

Do you really understand the point I was making?



What would be your solution to China collecting important signals intelligence that they can't otherwise collect via satellite?

Why would a giant weather balloon, that looks like no other weather balloon on the planet, have a 100+ foot boom suspended underneath with antennas, equipment, and enough solar panels to produce a kilowatt (maybe more) of power?

Also...what do YOU believe is the purpose of these unusual looking and equipped balloons is, that are sent over the US by a hostile country? Feel free to speculate.

From a speculation standpoint, this balloon was never supposed to be over the US in the first place. It was sucked down here by the broken jet stream (polar vortex).

IF it’s indeed a spy balloon, my money is on surveillance of the Arctic where all the “Great powers” have been setting up gear because we’ve identified new shipping lanes that are opening up because of global warming.

We’re there, Russia is there, other NATO members are keeping an eye on the situation up there.

The size of the boom itself doesn’t disturb me, because as you laid out there are physical antenna characteristics that’s need to be in place to allow for world-spanning communications to occur.

This PowerPoint from middle schoolers making these kinds of balloons in miniature shows that this really isn’t stuff that’s outside the capabilities of just regular people. Sometimes a weather ballon is just a balloon.

https://vepimg.b8cdn.com/uploads/vjfnew/1073/content/images/1596949203send-an-amateur-radio-balloon-around-the-world-bill-brown-wb8elk-pdf1596949203.pdf

I’d like to see evidence of the actual equipment, not speculation on it, before I make a definitive conclusion on what this balloon actually was doing, but again it wasn’t even supposed to be over the US except for the fact that we (humanity) have broken how the jet stream operates due to our pollution.

 

[Nycturne]

Don’t weather balloons use UHF for receiving and transmitting signals? To go around the globe that requires a pretty big antenna. You remember the old TV UHF dishes right?

I think it depends how you intend to bounce the signal. Since you won’t have line of sight, you either need to bounce it off the atmosphere or a satellite. Caching data and sending it via satellite during regular windows generally seems easier these days. You can put your big dish on the satellite and ground station and keep things more manageable on the balloon.

The only issue I have with this is how long it took them to address it, that entire time it was likely beaming all kinds of intel back to them. I don't care who the president/party is, this was a blatant spying attempt and any country would be alarmed by it.

SIGINT is not something I’d blame a country for trying, per se. It’s part and parcel of modern intelligence apparatuses.

If anything I see this as a reason to laugh at China. Either this was intentional and it was done badly enough that the US felt the need to respond openly, or China failed to terminate the balloon’s flight and retrieve it before it left its intended flight area. Either way, I pity the government official responsible for this mission more than anything else.

As for the repeated idea of trying to manufacture consent to start a war with China, I’d be surprised. I haven’t seen anything suggesting that we think China is a paper tiger. It’d be worse for us than the war in Ukraine has been for Russia. MAD all but ensures that we’d see a new protracted Cold War with proxy wars and cyber warfare instead. You could even argue such a state effectively exists now, even if it isn’t explicit. That said, the whole China/US relationship has been messy for a long time. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

 

[Cmaier]

U.S. just shot down something else near Alaska. Sounds balloon-like, but nothing confirmed yet.

40,000 ft altitude. Size of small car. Unmanned.

 

[lizkat]

I’m not going to participate in the manufacturing of consent for our upcoming war with China. I’ve been watching this space since the Bush administration. America can’t deal with not being the global hegemon, and that’s all this is about at the end of the day.

I'm with you on at least that much of your posting in this thread. The neocons' drumbeat and the pickup by journos who do know better has really started to tick me off. There are ways for two countries to disagree that don't involve hyping potential to make war and both USA and China know that and have engaged (and ARE engaged) in avoiding that. Together they could obliterate the planet, and they and we all know that whichever one was stupid or careless enough to start a war, the planet would be the loser. What we need to know more of is how we're going to use conversation and trade protocols to avoid doing that, respect each other's sovereignty as well as that of other states. You know, just in case some people might like to raise grandchildren on what's left of this place we all live on.

Every time I see this crew of neocons like Nuland mouthing off about the dangers of China, I hark back to the then impending "necessity" of a regime change in Iraq... and so yeah, feels like fake yellow cake and not-that-special aluminum tubes are on the menu again, decorated this time with fortune cookies instead of little crescents. Mind you I fault China for going along with the increase in mutual hostilities. Just because Trump's xenophobia and his wacko advisers like Navarro decreed that the American "competitive partnership" with China was so over, didn't make that a foregone conclusion --since let's face it, K street is at the table for discussions like that!-- but China's hackles rose, and they've taken being nasty a peg too far same as the USA.

I'm hoping some ASEAN parties with more common sense --Indonesia for example-- can have some quiet but compelling conversations with representatives of both Xi and Biden, and knock this whole scenario back a couple dozen chapters. I'm not sure why more American corporations aren't burning up the phone wires to the White House, telling Biden admin to slow.this.shit.right.down, but if something like that got out at this point, then Fox News guests would have a cow right on the Sean Hannity show, eh.