More on the Chinese balloon US overflight

Eric

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Does it disturb anyone that forums posts on this site are doing more fact checking and digging into technical details/possibilities than any news source covering this story?
So far what we're seeing from the media is pretty accurate, it WAS a spy balloon without question. What's more disturbing are posts that come off like half-baked conspiracy theories with no real basis in the reality of what this thing really was and those who sent it.
 

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Eric

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Look familiar?

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Eric

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Citysnaps

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Could be China retaliating, in the only manner that it can; ie balloons, for stuff the US does against China, that's likely far more sophisticated. :)
 

AG_PhamD

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Outside of balloon launches being detected by other sources and methods, what should have detected it would be the Cobra Dane 100' diameter planar phased array radar at the end of the Aleutian Islands - assuming there's enough metallic matter in the craft to create reflections.

The most recent balloon with its 100+ foot boom, solar panels, antennas, electronics, batteries, etc likely had enough metal to create a good reflection, and thus detection (assuming relatively low velocity events are not filtered out). That radar, along with others that are similar, were designed to detect ICBM launches from the USSR/Russia (both missile development tests re-entering near Kamchatka, and of course the real thing targeting the US mainland).

But...if the previous balloons did not have the long boom and payload (and thus little reflective metal), and were just trial runs to test detection responses from the US, that *could* be why they were missed. Just some conjecture....

Sure, but if it’s traveling at the speed of the wind, I would think there’s a possibility of it being ignored. You probably know more about this than I do, I only have experience using consumer marine radar and it’s evolution with technology, but there seem to be many examples throughout history of radar parameters not being set to identify objects properly. For example, it’s believed Russia was failing to identify TB-2’s early on in the Ukraine War because their air defenses were not tuned to detect such small, slow moving targets.

So it’s not to say the US could not capable of detect balloons, but the filtering of data may have been set to exclude them. Which might explain why balloons were reportedly missed during the Trump administration. The orientation Chinese ballon’s payload in relation to our radars would also be a factor in how quickly and easily it could be detected. As would be any “stealth” design features of the payload.
 

Citysnaps

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So it’s not to say the US could not capable of detect balloons, but the filtering of data may have been set to exclude them. Which might explain why balloons were reportedly missed during the Trump administration. The orientation Chinese ballon’s payload in relation to our radars would also be a factor in how quickly and easily it could be detected. As would be any “stealth” design features of the payload.

Could very well be, and was a possibility I mentioned above. In normal defense postures there's no reason to get triggered by anything less than a Cessna 172 (or thereabouts). OTOH, now it seems systems perhaps should get triggered.

I'm wondering if the purpose of some of these balloons and "objects" is not so they themselves can collect signals, but to instead trigger and stimulate our air defense systems along with our subsequent reactions, which is then collected by Chinese or Russian systems (satellites/ships/spies/etc), for the purpose of understanding how they work, how we react regarding engaging other electronic systems, how the US military chain of command gets stirred up, etc.

Past so-called UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) were engaged in that sort of thing triggering air defense systems and causing US fighter aircraft to engage to determine what they were, resulting in a lot of conjecture with respect to their purpose.
 

Eric

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Does this mean what I think it means? What the heck is going on?

View attachment 21794
Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFR) are pretty common and usually short lived, typically it means someone important or military is occupying the airspace. I recently had to learn all about them for my drone pilot license. Could still be a balloon though, just could also be a lot of things.
 
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