2024 Democrat Presidential Candidates

[Chew Toy McCoy]

I think you may be blaming Biden a bit too much. Sure he wants to keep being President, but has the DNC, both at the national and state levels, put up roadblocks to other legitimate candidates from entering the race?

I think the answer is yes.

I get it from a political standpoint in that you never want to weaken the incumbent. But the incumbent in this case is not Reagan in '84, Clinton in '96, Bush in '04 or Obama in '12. He is really wanted by very few in the party, yet he has basically been coronated as the nominee.

The blame doesn't solely fall on Biden.

I’m all for diversity, but I think the Democrats really painted themselves into a bad corner with Harris as VP and therefor assumed frontrunner if Biden dropped out. Perceived or real, there are many strategists who believe nobody should dare run against a woman of color because it would piss off too many Democrat voters. They’d rather lose the election than promote a different candidate. Personally I don’t believe that’s the case just as I don’t believe Biden running with a woman of color VP pushed him over the finish line.

Recently I’ve been thinking about 2 comparatively brief moments in history when if both Biden and Trump went in a different direction we’d better place. If Trump just reluctantly accepted the reported results of the election but said he would continue to push for investigations he’d probably be left alone by the justice system and he could be living the good life occasionally chiming in on legal issues. He could probably even continue grifting his supporters with nostalgia swag with money going directly into his pocket instead of into his legal battles.

Early on Biden pretty much said he wasn’t planning to run for a second term, just wanted to return to some normalcy and stability. I know looking at his accomplishments some believe he has been a great President, especially given the almost insurmountable blockage from Congress, but I think he would also be considered an even greater President if he dropped his ego and stuck to his word and helped promote another candidate for 2024 that voters could really get behind.

But here we are, a difficult decision to be made largely driven by the brief ego decisions of 2 men more than any other factors.

 

[Roller]

But here we are, a difficult decision to be made largely driven by the brief ego decisions of 2 men more than any other factors.

Although I concur with much of your analysis, I don’t think the decision should be that difficult because Trump is so monumentally unfit. And regardless of what one thinks about Biden’s interactions with the press, his performance record as president is pretty darn impressive.

 

[GermanSuplex]

I saw Biden answer some questions this morning, and my favorite moment was when they asked who he’d rather face, Haley or Trump. The little chuckle it brought from me is the same feeling I imagine Trump supporters have when he makes fun of his rape victim or cracks a racist joke.

 

[Herdfan]

Although I concur with much of your analysis, I don’t think the decision should be that difficult because Trump is so monumentally unfit.

So what blows my mind regarding this is most D's would agree with you. That includes the voters, the elected officials, party members, etc.

So why in the cornbread hell haven't they replaced him? Forced him out, bribed him to leave, encouraged him to leave, run an actual primary. If the idea is that Trump is so bad, why are they willing to take that chance? Because that is exactly what they are doing whether you or anyone else wants to admit it or not. Some here have admitted it, but not as many as should given how much Trump is hated on here.

And regardless of what one thinks about Biden’s interactions with the press, his performance record as president is pretty darn impressive.

Then why are his approval ratings in the upper 30's?

He has the approval of 92% of D's, which is expected. You would expect the R's to not approve, also expected. But that leaves a big hole in the middle for the I's. And they aren't buying.

Where is the disconnect between this great job and his approval ratings? And why? Sure you can say the polls aren't accurate or find some other reason, but these type of polls are more accurate than who people are voting for simply due to the fact there is less modeling and estimating. Even if they are off by 20%, that still doesn't get him above water.

Have they done that poor a job of selling it? Or are the people simply not buying it? The selling part can be fixed, the not buying it, not so easily.

 

[Alli]

So why in the cornbread hell haven't they replaced him? Forced him out, bribed him to leave, encouraged him to leave, run an actual primary. If the idea is that Trump is so bad, why are they willing to take that chance? Because that is exactly what they are doing whether you or anyone else wants to admit it or not. Some here have admitted it, but not as many as should given how much Trump is hated on here.

Probably because he’s done a damn good job as president. He’s accomplished more in 3 years than both Bushes and Reagan put together. I look forward to his future accomplishments.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

So what blows my mind regarding this is most D's would agree with you. That includes the voters, the elected officials, party members, etc.

So why in the cornbread hell haven't they replaced him? Forced him out, bribed him to leave, encouraged him to leave, run an actual primary. If the idea is that Trump is so bad, why are they willing to take that chance? Because that is exactly what they are doing whether you or anyone else wants to admit it or not. Some here have admitted it, but not as many as should given how much Trump is hated on here.






Then why are his approval ratings in the upper 30's?

He has the approval of 92% of D's, which is expected. You would expect the R's to not approve, also expected. But that leaves a big hole in the middle for the I's. And they aren't buying.

Where is the disconnect between this great job and his approval ratings? And why? Sure you can say the polls aren't accurate or find some other reason, but these type of polls are more accurate than who people are voting for simply due to the fact there is less modeling and estimating. Even if they are off by 20%, that still doesn't get him above water.

Have they done that poor a job of selling it? Or are the people simply not buying it? The selling part can be fixed, the not buying it, not so easily.

There are a lot of single issue voters on both sides, and while Biden may have done a lot of positive things, it may not have impacted individual voters directly (that they are aware of) or they may not approve of his performance on their pet single issue.

Off the top of my head…

Inflation has slowed but they want deflation.

Housing cost.

Interest rates, but that’s entirely the Fed that has an even bigger ego than the President and could arguably be considered the deep state.

Handling of Israel.

College debt, regardless of which side of the argument you are on that one.

Generally speaking, the misguided belief that the President has the authority to change literally everything overnight and the only reason he hasn’t is because he doesn’t give a shit.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Although I concur with much of your analysis, I don’t think the decision should be that difficult because Trump is so monumentally unfit. And regardless of what one thinks about Biden’s interactions with the press, his performance record as president is pretty darn impressive.

I agree voting Biden is a no brainer in this match, but I’m saying for too many voters that isn’t an obvious decision for a variety of reasons. Policies aside, Trump being allowed to retake office after a well publicized lifetime of career and political criminality and grifting spells certain doom as far as I’m concerned. Look at what Republicans have done with abortion and apply that heavy handedness to Trump’s free pass and all the potential that brings.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Probably because he’s done a damn good job as president. He’s accomplished more in 3 years than both Bushes and Reagan put together. I look forward to his future accomplishments.

Exactly, and he's already proven he can beat Trump. I don't know, seems to help the credibility along.

What blows my mind is how people who aren't standing in the streets with bullhorns demanding Trump step away are somehow convinced we should be forcing Biden out of the party. Yeah, that's not computing for me.

Biden should win re-election, get sworn in, then announce a six month transition period while he steps away. Then he can leave the White House, and ask reporters "Ok, I'm stepping down. Is there world peace yet? No?" Then put on his aviators and enter a helicopter with both middle fingers raised, and the back of his jacket should have "You're Welcome" emblazoned on it.

 

[Roller]

So what blows my mind regarding this is most D's would agree with you. That includes the voters, the elected officials, party members, etc.

So why in the cornbread hell haven't they replaced him? Forced him out, bribed him to leave, encouraged him to leave, run an actual primary. If the idea is that Trump is so bad, why are they willing to take that chance? Because that is exactly what they are doing whether you or anyone else wants to admit it or not. Some here have admitted it, but not as many as should given how much Trump is hated on here.

Then why are his approval ratings in the upper 30's?

He has the approval of 92% of D's, which is expected. You would expect the R's to not approve, also expected. But that leaves a big hole in the middle for the I's. And they aren't buying.

Where is the disconnect between this great job and his approval ratings? And why? Sure you can say the polls aren't accurate or find some other reason, but these type of polls are more accurate than who people are voting for simply due to the fact there is less modeling and estimating. Even if they are off by 20%, that still doesn't get him above water.

Have they done that poor a job of selling it? Or are the people simply not buying it? The selling part can be fixed, the not buying it, not so easily.

Trump has so many disqualifying liabilities that go far beyond differences in policy that the decision shouldn't be that difficult. Heck, even just his recent statement about Putin being able to do anything he wants should be enough. Despite pronouncements by sycophants like Rubio that it was just "Trump being Trump," our NATO allies are understandably alarmed.

So why do millions of Americans still support him? For many, it's because Trump constantly presents himself as the aggrieved victim, and they identify with that. He's the only one who will protect them from "blood-poisoning" immigrants and political "vermin." And they're exposed to a constant diet of lies from Trump, Republicans, and right-wing media like Fox News — they never hear about positive accomplishments by the Biden administration, some of which were bipartisan.

For some others who are independents or even Democrats, I think there's a general malaise and a sense of being fed up with our institutions, especially all three branches of government. They ignore evidence that the country is in better shape than it was in 2020 and conclude nobody can "fix it," to use Trump's old boast.

I don't see any mechanism for the Democrats shunting Biden aside in this election cycle — it would splinter the party and increase the risk of a Trump victory, even if initiated from within. I think most Democrats are sticking with Biden because he really has done well (despite pronouncements from Trump, Republicans, and right-wing media), and because they believe and hope enough Americans will see the danger Trump represents and vote accordingly, even if the electoral college margin is thin.

 

[Yoused]

Biden should win re-election, get sworn in, then announce a six month transition period while he steps away.

After 18 months and a day: that way the VP would be entitled to run for two full terms.

 

[Herdfan]

I don't see any mechanism for the Democrats shunting Biden aside in this election cycle — it would splinter the party and increase the risk of a Trump victory, even if initiated from within. I think most Democrats are sticking with Biden because he really has done well (despite pronouncements from Trump, Republicans, and right-wing media), and because they believe and hope enough Americans will see the danger Trump represents and vote accordingly, even if the electoral college margin is thin.

Not sure I 100% agree with this. I think a lot of mainstream D's and I's that have valid concerns over his age would welcome a different candidate.

Who that candidate might be would determine the amount of splintering.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Polls tightening. Means little, but also a lot.

Biden holds 4-point lead over Trump in Quinnipiac poll

President Biden is holding on to his lead over former President Trump, the GOP front-runner, in new poll ahead of a potential rematch in November. In the Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednes…

thehill.com

 

[Yoused]

The American Academy of Arts and Sciences talked to some folks on the ground about The Economy and discovered, surprise, surprise, a current of resentment. Joe Average feels like a good economy means very little to him, it all seems weighted toward those one guys who are mostly interested in finding creative ways of picking his pocket, while maybe also relieving themselves in his well, if it saves them an expense.

What does that mean? Will Joe Average be inclined to vote for the biggest pickpocket of them all? Or will he vote for the guy who says he feels their pain but never seems to do much to help them? Anxiety about the future does often cause change in the government, but it is not easy to see the average voter gravitating toward the Party of the Caste System. Of course, if they just stay home, that will be where their votes land.

 

[Edd]

Trump’s whole vibe.

An attack on him is an attack on them. Total bullshit and they lap it up because they are stupid.

 

[GermanSuplex]

I read an article today that mentioned Biden was going to do small stop tours around the country to drum up support. Not sure if this was related, but it was on TMZ today, so it could just be a coincidence, but this is what he’s known for. It’s one thing to see him once in a while on TV, but I do agree with Herdfan in that he’s going to have to get out and prove he’s up for the task. Unlike a court of law, you are guilty until proven innocent in the court of public opinion, that’s a true bipartisan thing these days.

Joshing around with the public and letting them see him up close in an informal setting is a good way to do that, I think that’s where he shines the best.

President Joe Biden Leaves $20 Tip for Burrito at Mexican Restaurant in L.A.

President Joe Biden is in L.A. this week to fundraise for his reelection campaign -- but he's also out here spreading the wealth ... including with some Jacksons for the common folk.

www.tmz.com

 

[Herdfan]

I read an article today that mentioned Biden was going to do small stop tours around the country to drum up support. Not sure if this was related, but it was on TMZ today, so it could just be a coincidence, but this is what he’s known for. It’s one thing to see him once in a while on TV, but I do agree with Herdfan in that he’s going to have to get out and prove he’s up for the task. Unlike a court of law, you are guilty until proven innocent in the court of public opinion, that’s a true bipartisan thing these days.

Joshing around with the public and letting them see him up close in an informal setting is a good way to do that, I think that’s where he shines the best.

So are you worried that he might not be up to the task?

Since the Hur report dropped a week ago, he has mixed up the names of the leaders of Egypt and Mexico and fallen up the steps of AF1.

Do you think he can change the public opinion? I see three outcomes from these stops. And the size of the stop doesn't matter in this case.

1) He is able to reassure the public he is up for the job.

2) Nothing he does or says affects public opinion.

3) He gaffes or stumbles and further reinforces (or makes it worse) the public opinion.

Does the reward of #1 outweigh the risk of #3?

I agree he has to do this, but I also think the risk is very high that the outcome is #3.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

So what blows my mind regarding this is most D's would agree with you. That includes the voters, the elected officials, party members, etc.

So why in the cornbread hell haven't they replaced him? Forced him out, bribed him to leave, encouraged him to leave, run an actual primary. If the idea is that Trump is so bad, why are they willing to take that chance? Because that is exactly what they are doing whether you or anyone else wants to admit it or not. Some here have admitted it, but not as many as should given how much Trump is hated on here.






Then why are his approval ratings in the upper 30's?

He has the approval of 92% of D's, which is expected. You would expect the R's to not approve, also expected. But that leaves a big hole in the middle for the I's. And they aren't buying.

Where is the disconnect between this great job and his approval ratings? And why? Sure you can say the polls aren't accurate or find some other reason, but these type of polls are more accurate than who people are voting for simply due to the fact there is less modeling and estimating. Even if they are off by 20%, that still doesn't get him above water.

Have they done that poor a job of selling it? Or are the people simply not buying it? The selling part can be fixed, the not buying it, not so easily.

This doesn’t explain all of it, but I think we are at a record high of people not approving of the government period.

Also I’ve heard more than a few interviews where voters expressed they are concerned about Biden’s age. That’s where right-wing media would stop the reporting because immediately after they said they are still going to vote for Biden if Trump is the other option. I’m sure there are voters who won’t vote for Biden specifically because of his age and related behavior, but it certainly isn’t everybody who has expressed concern.

Concerns over 4 more years of Trump are obvious, especially because he loudly tells the world why they should be concerned. Honest question, what are the concerns on the right with 4 more years of Biden? Let’s say worse case scenario he drops dead and then we have President Harris. OK, and? Other than blatant racists and misogynists possibly losing there brief day in the sun, what are the actual concerns?

 

[rdrr]

So are you worried that he might not be up to the task?

Since the Hur report dropped a week ago, he has mixed up the names of the leaders of Egypt and Mexico and fallen up the steps of AF1.

Do you think he can change the public opinion? I see three outcomes from these stops. And the size of the stop doesn't matter in this case.

1) He is able to reassure the public he is up for the job.

2) Nothing he does or says affects public opinion.

3) He gaffes or stumbles and further reinforces (or makes it worse) the public opinion.

Does the reward of #1 outweigh the risk of #3?

I agree he has to do this, but I also think the risk is very high that the outcome is #3.

So what? These are our choices Biden or Trump. In that choice, the answer is no I am not worried, because Trump is worse by comparison. He gaffs all the time, but on top of that he makes shit up, is unhinged on making decisions (usually based on grievances), and is just out of touch on how things work.

You have made your point over and over, and it is tiresome. You don't like Biden (fine), then cast your vote for Trump (most likely were going to do that anyway).

 

[GermanSuplex]

So are you worried that he might not be up to the task?

Since the Hur report dropped a week ago, he has mixed up the names of the leaders of Egypt and Mexico and fallen up the steps of AF1.

Do you think he can change the public opinion? I see three outcomes from these stops. And the size of the stop doesn't matter in this case.

1) He is able to reassure the public he is up for the job.

2) Nothing he does or says affects public opinion.

3) He gaffes or stumbles and further reinforces (or makes it worse) the public opinion.

Does the reward of #1 outweigh the risk of #3?

I agree he has to do this, but I also think the risk is very high that the outcome is #3.

I'm not worried he might not be up to the task until I see something that shows me he isn't. Beyond normal aging. All of this talk of Biden and Trump's age remind me of how often I stumble over my own words and misspeak. You'd have a strong case to make against me based on the same criteria we use for Trump and Biden.

That said, other people clearly are worried he may not be up to the task. Why is unimportant, the perception is all that matters. I don't know how individual voters, democrats as a whole or the voting public as a whole will view Biden.

My guess is a lot of people have already settled on 1 or 3, many have always been 2. For those undecided folks who are seriously going to judge soundly when picking between 1 and 3, that will be where the test is, and unless he gets progressively worse, I don't see random gaffes hurting Biden that much. He's always been a gaffe machine, and sometimes that was endearing to voters.

Election season is always different than the beginning of a term and throughout. Generally, incumbents get less popular, the opposing party gains steam, and then the incumbent usually has an advantage. For people who don't follow the news or politics but still vote, Trump is easy to ignore and Biden is clearly an old dude and that's probably the impression a lot of people get, made worse by his gaffes and clips of them.

However, when the intensity is up, and both men get more and more unavoidable coverage and fair-weather voters start paying attention in the runup, the contrast with Trump - who makes just as many gaffes - will become clear. Just this past week, Trump told voters to vote on November 27 - and to remember the date, because its important. He also claimed he was going to bring crime back to DC. The Biden campaign is highlighting these gaffes. I fully expect a debate, because that will the best place to contrast each candidates perceived sharpness, as well as their substance.

 

[Herdfan]

This doesn’t explain all of it, but I think we are at a record high of people not approving of the government period.

Also I’ve heard more than a few interviews where voters expressed they are concerned about Biden’s age. That’s where right-wing media would stop the reporting because immediately after they said they are still going to vote for Biden if Trump is the other option. I’m sure there are voters who won’t vote for Biden specifically because of his age and related behavior, but it certainly isn’t everybody who has expressed concern.

All it takes is moving the needle around 0.5%. So it won't take many. Right now I am not really trusting ca

So what? These are our choices Biden or Trump. In that choice, the answer is no I am not worried, because Trump is worse by comparison. He gaffs all the time, but on top of that he makes shit up, is unhinged on making decisions (usually based on grievances), and is just out of touch on how things work.

You have made your point over and over, and it is tiresome. You don't like Biden (fine), then cast your vote for Trump (most likely were going to do that anyway).

Not sure how Trump has anything to do with my question to @GermanSuplex