He will be in jail before the year is out. I don’t see how he avoids it to be honest.
I think that he may be arraigned, and could well face trial, with a conviction possibly secured.
However, incarceration in the notorious US prison system may be an ask too far.
I consider this wishful thinking. He avoids it with $. We don’t live in a country where ex-presidents go to jail. Please let me be wrong.
He may well be convicted - in fact, I'll be surprised if he isn't, for, I expect a veritable tsunami, an avalanche of evidence to pour forth, like a tide of pure slurry, in support of whatever charges are laid against him, - but, I doubt that he will end up behind bars in the US.
I don’t know what the future holds for Vance but picturing Trump in jail staggers my imagination. I’ve no reason to doubt Trump will be charged but I’ll be shocked if he even testifies. Further, if the impossible happens and he’s found guilty I’m picturing no jail time or house arrest at worst. And that cocksucker would still find a way to golf.
In my fantasy, he seeks asylum in a “shithole” country. But, my fantasies rarely come true.
Fleeing, followed by asylum, is a possibility that cannot be ruled out.
Plea-bargaining is another possibility, especially if the future of some of the other appalling scions of that family are to be secured.
I don’t think any other country will take him. He hasn’t worked out for Putin really - he needed to win a second term for that.
Actually, I beg to differ.
This is because I think that it has worked out superbly well for Mr Putin.
Is the international reputation of the US, has the international reputation of the US been - among other matters, its ability to project "soft power" - enhanced or reduced by the administration of the past four years?
How do you measure power, soft power, or influence? How do you measure credibility, respect?
The reputation of - or credibility - the constitution and democratic institutions - and the respective branches of government - of the US?
Thrashed.
Or, severely tested, and damaged.
The idea that western democracies - or that of the US version - have emerged from this period with their reputation enhanced? The idea that elections can be relied upon to be "free and fair"?
Thrashed. Anyone who thinks that the ideal of what is called "US democracy" hasn't taken a signifiant hit from the events of the last four years is deluded.
The reputation of the US as a reliable partner in international relations?
Thrashed. Or, at the very least considerably undermined.
The US economy, and the US reputation for economic governance and competence?
Thrashed.
The credibility, autonomy, independence of the adinitrative or bureaucratic branches of the US federal administration, eroded and corroded from within by an administration that has attempted to destroy them?
Thrashed.
And so on.
However much was invested in Mr Trump - or whether it was an admixture of carrot - (bribes, or favours) and sticks (blackmail), - it has paid very handsome dividends.
UAE might take him. That arms deal Trump slammed in w/ them did not get blocked by the Senate.
Just a day after the House rebuffed him on a major defense bill, President Trump scored a major foreign policy victory as the Senate on Wednesday narrowly rejected efforts to throw out a proposed $23 billion arms sale to the United Arab Emirates that is a key component of Mr. Trump’s Middle East...
www.washingtontimes.com
Make what you will of assorted protestations about the nature of the deal.
Some Dems voted not to block the thing too, so... defense industry jobs talk.
I don't think UAE would be to Trump's own liking as far as a place to hang out, although maybe as a prospective resort and golf course arrangement, why not? And if he needed to hole up because New York State ended up threatening bench warrants on him, who knows. Maybe UAE could somehow lose any extradition-related clauses in their treaties. The exhaust of 50 new F35s might just conceivably set something or other on fire.
I don’t think the UAE will want the continued reminder to the world that they are an awful regime and that he is there.
He‘s not going to go there and shut the fuck up and retire quietly.
They likely don't see him the way a lot of us in the USA do. But that's a "yeah, no" on retiring quietly!
I wonder how good his health is. He's theoretically always thrived on chaos and conflict but that and his diet, gee... plus the past four years whatever he takes to stay evened out enough to find his smartphone or the doors in and out of the Oval Office... it all must take a toll eventually.
Okay: So-called "Shithole" countries.
I've worked in a few of them.
As has been said about the past, "this is a different country." They do things differently there, not least re-writing history, and, thus, gratitude for the ghosts of favours past may be in very short supply.
If Mr Trump did end up in one of these places, I would not rule out a convenient accident, put down to ill-heath, which would serve to silence him, especially if his splenetic outbursts embarrassed his hosts or threatened their political and/or commercial interests.
There is a political price to pay (and sometimes, a professional or personal one, as well) to accepting an invitation to dance with amoral autocrats, especially if if they are playing host to you, or have offered you sanctuary. Guests are expected to behave themselves, and not soil the carpets, or thrash the bathroom.
Moreover, if you arrange play dates with autocratic or dictatorial societies that do not subscribe to silly, soppy, liberal concepts such as the rule of law - and that boorish disdain for constraints on their power is their principal attraction for you - do not act surprised if they enforce their own sometimes savage rules which have nothing to do with the rule of law, but everything to do with securing their own position, or preserving their own advantage, or silencing those stupid enough, or idealistic enough, to embarrass them or challenge them.
Besides, once Mr Trump has departed from office, even in the US, it will be a case of "le roi est mort."
And, in some of these countries, there is a history of "les rois" being "très mort", especially when they are no longer useful, relevant, have any political worth, and are no longer in power, or hold office.
Let's put it this way: These societies don't subscribe to the First Amendment for their own people: There is no way on the planet that they will do so for a disruptive guest who may have outworn his use or his welcome. At the very least, expect phones that don't work, erratic internet access, possible ill health, followed by silence. But, yes, in congenial, pleasant, gaudy, possibly even luxurious surroundings. After all, let us not forget where the unfortunate Mr Khashoggi met his gruesome and grotesque end: In the Saudi embassy in Istanbul.