Russia-Ukraine

[dada_dave]

Re: the Musk story:

I believe that is not an accurate characterization. (see today’s NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/world/europe/elon-musk-starlink-ukraine.html )

The Krim area had never been activated by Starlink, so Musk did not shut anything down.

What did happen, is that he refused an urgent Ukrainian request to activate Starlink over the Krim peninsula just before the planned attack, arguing that would have made him an “active participant” in the war.

Needless to say, that is obviously exactly what he should have done.

Unfortunately I can’t read that in full but given what I could read, that’s simply Musk’s newest version that he posted on Twitter. It’s not clear what he did when he did it or when the Ukrainians knew what he had done or not done. The original version has Ukrainian ships adrift (and some did wash ashore though possibly in a separate incident). If so then yes the request to turn on Starlink would’ve been very urgent indeed. Basically Musk is doing damage control and the Ukrainians are quite rightly pissed. And his excuse is still bullshit regardless even in his version of events.

Edit: To be clear, the DoD should have handled the contracts for Starlink (as they do now) the moment they realized how dependent the Ukrainians were on it. That still doesn’t excuse Musk’s or Starlink’s antics.

Elon Musk gave biographer top Ukrainian official’s private messages without permission

Mykhailo Fedorov says disclosure of exchange about military access to Starlink internet service ‘not pretty’

www.ft.com

It is again reiterated that Musk turned it off, they wanted it back on. Whether or not he did it during the said naval operation is unclear (though it definitely was during the Kharkiv offensive and I do remember Ukranian soldiers complaining that suddenly Starlink stopped working as they advanced).

 

[cbum]

Well, Musk's tweets yesterday directly contradict Isaacson's WaPo piece today.
Whom to believe...
Not Musk. (But that's just an opinion.)

 

[Eric]

Re: the Musk story:

I believe that is not an accurate characterization. (see today’s NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/world/europe/elon-musk-starlink-ukraine.html )

The Krim area had never been activated by Starlink, so Musk did not shut anything down.

What did happen, is that he refused an urgent Ukrainian request to activate Starlink over the Krim peninsula just before the planned attack, arguing that would have made him an “active participant” in the war.

Needless to say, that is obviously exactly what he should have done.

Conversely, not doing so cost lives as a result, I would call that an active part of the war. He should be charged with a war crime here IMO.

 

[dada_dave]

Someone brought up contracts and US Export (ITAR - basically have to receive permission from the US government to export civilian tech that will be integrated into a weapon system) as a possible explanation:

But frankly we’ve already seen that Musk’s biographer has the private communications between him and Fedorov. No one, not even Musk is saying ITAR was an issue (and we know he turned it off for the ground forces advancing into occupied territory too) nor that the Ukrainians were violating or at least pushing the envelope on any contract that was signed.

Now who knows what is going on inside Musk’s addled brain but his defense is that he was talking to Russian officials, sometimes even claiming it was Putin himself, about the Ukraine war and he believed their threats of WW3 and unilaterally shut off StarLink in occupied territories after which he began parroting Russian propaganda.

 

[cbum]

Update from Isaacson himself, appears to confirm Musk's tweets:

@WalterIsaacson
To clarify on the Starlink issue: the Ukrainians THOUGHT coverage was enabled all the way to Crimea, but it was not. They asked Musk to enable it for their drone sub attack on the Russian fleet. Musk did not enable it, because he thought, probably correctly, that would cause a major war.
10:55 PM · Sep 8, 2023 from Queens, NY

 

[dada_dave]

Update from Isaacson himself, appears to confirm Musk's tweets:

@WalterIsaacson
To clarify on the Starlink issue: the Ukrainians THOUGHT coverage was enabled all the way to Crimea, but it was not. They asked Musk to enable it for their drone sub attack on the Russian fleet. Musk did not enable it, because he thought, probably correctly, that would cause a major war.
10:55 PM · Sep 8, 2023 from Queens, NY

A lot of people called bullshit on that tweet. It isn’t what he wrote 3 times and the Ukrainians confirm it isn’t true, they tested it. After all that’s why they planned a major attack using Starlink as the navigation tool and they watched in horror as they suddenly lost signal and the drones drifted. At least one washed ashore later.

One example:

Also lol at “Musk did not enable it, because he thought, probably correctly, that would cause a major war.” Someone should tell the Ukrainians and the Russians that it isn’t a major war.

Basically now that they see the backlash they are desperate to try to create a slightly different narrative even if it makes no sense and confirms most of the details we already know and wouldn’t be that much better for Musk anyway.

 

[dada_dave]

As I said, tap dancing:

This is a distinction without a difference. He doesn’t specify when the policy was changed but regardless it was changed and he didn’t tell the Ukrainians that it had changed.

 

[cbum]

No-one want to own failure. Shocking.

 

[dada_dave]

Major strike on Sevastopol. Two ships in dry dock hit including a Kilo class submarine which fires missiles at Ukrainian cities. The other is a military transport ship. Dry docks also a valuable target as were some of the related naval buildings. Probably Storm Shadow/Scalp-ER.

Side note: Musk appears to have been wrong about WW3 starting as the result of attacking Sevastopol - shocking I know - this is at least the third attack.

 

[dada_dave]

 

[dada_dave]

From WaPo:

We knew they’d geofenced in the Donbas as well but now we know that, again, they never told the Ukrainians. How much more could the Ukrainians have liberated during the Kharkiv counterattack if Musk hadn’t intervened?

 

[dada_dave]

 

[Yoused]

Top guy in Chechnya, fellator of Vlad, who sent many Chechen troops to fight for Russia, is in a coma due to ongoing kidney disease.

 

[dada_dave]

Top guy in Chechnya, fellator of Vlad, who sent many Chechen troops to fight for Russia, is in a coma due to ongoing kidney disease.

A sketchy report says he also had his top doctor buried alive after believing himself to have been poisoned by his administrations. What is known is that the fellow has not been heard or seen since his “voluntary resignation” almost a year ago.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1700800571920228402

Should be taken with a grain of salt

 

[Altaic]

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JFC, how did no one in Congress think that maybe they should proactively check out the main communication and intelligence channel in the highest profile conflict in decades?

 

[dada_dave]

JFC, how did no one in Congress think that maybe they should proactively check out the main communication and intelligence channel in the highest profile conflict in decades?

Who knows? Why didn’t DoD take over the contracts earlier once it became clear how dependent Ukraine was on it? There a lot of questions that are going to have to be answered, mostly by Musk and SpaceX, but a lot of others too.

But in general Congress is not really known for being a proactive institution. For good … and bad.

 

[Altaic]

Who knows? Why didn’t DoD take over the contracts earlier once it became clear how dependent Ukraine was on it? There a lot of questions that are going to have to be answered, mostly by Musk and SpaceX, but a lot of others too.

But in general Congress is not really known for being a proactive institution. For good … and bad.

SMH, true

 

[dada_dave]

Top guy in Chechnya, fellator of Vlad, who sent many Chechen troops to fight for Russia, is in a coma due to ongoing kidney disease.

A video of Kadryov has been posted, so far it seems, he’s probably alive. Unsure if there’s proof of the date but even so chances are he’s alive. Sadly.

 

[Agent47]

A video of Kadryov has been posted, so far it seems, he’s probably alive. Unsure if there’s proof of the date but even so chances are he’s alive. Sadly.

Its unclear though. The video seems to show him in spring (judging from vegetation), some have argued

 

[dada_dave]

Its unclear though. The video seems to show him in spring (judging from vegetation), some have argued

Oh I wouldn’t say definitively one way or the other, Kremlinology is back.