Russia-Ukraine

AG_PhamD

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There are reports that the heavy cruiser Moskva, which may or may not be the ship that shelled Odessa, has experienced an explosion and fire (the origin of which depends on whom you ask) resulting in its ultimate exploration of the Black Sea floor. The crew apparently avoided the ride down.

This is great news. The Moskva is one of two heavy cruisers in the Black Sea, basically designed to be the primary air defense for other ships- so it’s a big loss. It’s also a very potent anti-ship missile platform, though Ukraine’s navy is pretty defunct since much of it was seized the 2014 and before that it sounds like it was hardly operational. Ukraine was forced to scuttle their flagship, their single frigate, early in the war. It’s primary weapon was a deck gun and stood no chance against most of these anti-ship missile equipped Russian ships. So probably not much of a loss.

Regarding the Moskva, Russia claims a fire lead to an ammunition explosion, Ukraine claims they hit it with two anti-ship missiles… quite impressive as these ships have an ton of air defense power. Who knows what the truth is… but Russia doesn’t have a great track record here.

This ship was the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, its destruction probably hurting pride/morale and enough of a reason to lie about the cause. How does a perceived weak country with virtually no navy to speak of (more of a coast guard than a Navy) and little in terms of sophisticated offensive weapons sink their flagship?

If this was a fire non-caused by missiles, it might raise questions about the reliability/design of Russian ships and weapons, storage/handling of explosives, fire/damage control capabilities and crew training, etc. How does a fire spontaneously start and how do you let it spread to ammunition storage?
 

Citysnaps

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Cmaier

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Finland and Sweden announcing they're considering joining NATO was somewhat expected. As is Russia's response. Whether they follow through, or, are just tossing that possibility out to help encourage Russia getting out of Ukraine remains to be seen. In either case the dynamics are fascinating.
Moving nukes to the baltics seems like it makes little difference to Sweden and Finland. It’s not like they aren’t already in range. Also not like they’d be Russia’s first targets if they ever decide to launch them.

Seems pretty clear that Finland will join. I’d give Sweden a 75% chance.
 

Cmaier

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Looks like the E.U. Is finally going to ban Russian oil imports.
 

Citysnaps

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Turkey has closed the straits of Dardanelles and Bosporus to warships, and most of the fleet is not in the Black Sea or up the Don, so they are mightily useless for setting upon the Ukraine coast.

On that subject, I'm wondering what closed really means. Really closed, or closed with a wink.

Wouldn't be shocked if there wasn't at least one or a couple of US submarines there right now, likely Seawolf class (such as the Jimmy Carter) to collect various kinds of intelligence and surveillance and/or to provide electronic counter measures. They could even deploy special operators for support missions.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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Goal: Restore the supposed glory days of the USSR

Regardless of outcome in Ukraine, here are the actual results

Further territorial expansion is DOA. And seriously Vlad, nobody does that shit anymore.

Strengthened the unity and resolve of NATO with a high probability that it will expand membership.

Far from becoming a top player in a new economic world order, Russia has been severely setback for decades or at least as long as Putin or somebody like him remains in power, at best a distant second fiddle to China or subservient to China.


Sooooo….mission accomplished?
 

Citysnaps

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China missed a great April fools opportunity... could of said they were considering joining NATO.

C'mon, Xi. Poke the bear a little. And then follow through with a nah nah ni nah, nah.
 
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Cmaier

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No, no, our ship didn’t sink. What’s that? Oh, yeah, actually it sank.
No, no, it wasn’t hit by missiles. It was just incompetence that caused ammo to explode. (Quick: move all our ships 20 miles further away from Ukraine so they can’t hit us with missiles)
 

Skunk

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On that subject, I'm wondering what closed really means. Really closed, or closed with a wink.

Wouldn't be shocked if there wasn't at least one or a couple of US submarines there right now, likely Seawolf class (such as the Jimmy Carter) to collect various kinds of intelligence and surveillance and/or to provide electronic counter measures. They could even deploy special operators for support missions.
Highly unlikely. The Bosphorus is only 13-15m deep in places, too shallow for unobserved passage.
 

Citysnaps

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No, no, our ship didn’t sink. What’s that? Oh, yeah, actually it sank.
No, no, it wasn’t hit by missiles. It was just incompetence that caused ammo to explode. (Quick: move all our ships 20 miles further away from Ukraine so they can’t hit us with missiles)

Made my day. The clownish story changes are icing.
 

Yoused

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I'm wondering what closed really means.
What I understand is it means ships with a Black Sea homeport are granted passage. Currently, Russia's Black Sea fleet includes
  • 5 Frigatea
  • 17 Corvettes
  • 6 Landing Ships
  • 7 Landing Craft
  • 4 Special purpose ships
  • 15 Patrol boats
  • 10 Anti-mine ships
  • 6 Coventional Attack Submarines
  • 29 various auxiliaries
according to wiki thingy. Georgia, Romania and Bulgaria also have Black Sea ports, so it would seem improper to deny passage to any naval vessels from those countries, as they do not have other coastlines.
 
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Macky-Mac

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What I understand is it means ships with a Black Sea homeport are granted passage. Currently, Russia's Black Sea fleet includes
  • 5 Frigatea
  • 17 Corvettes
  • 6 Landing Ships
  • 7 Landing Craft
  • 4 Special purpose ships
  • 15 Patrol boats
  • 10 Anti-mine ships
  • 6 Coventional Attack Submarines
  • 29 various auxiliaries
according to wiki thingy. Georgia, Romania and Bulgaria also have Black Sea ports, so it would seem improper to deny passage to any naval vessels from those countries, as they do not have other coastlines.

My recollection is that the restriction on passage applies only to warships, but it applies to ALL warships from any country? The only exception being, as you wrote, that warships registered with a home base at a Black Sea port are allowed a one time passage to return to their registered base.

Reuters report

but all of the details may have changed at some point

edit; presumably if Russia felt it needed more warships in the Black Sea, it would have increased its fleet there before this whole mess started, so closing passage may have come too late in any event

edit 2; and it appears Russia did indeed increase the number of warships .....report from Feb 8
 
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AG_PhamD

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On that subject, I'm wondering what closed really means. Really closed, or closed with a wink.

Wouldn't be shocked if there wasn't at least one or a couple of US submarines there right now, likely Seawolf class (such as the Jimmy Carter) to collect various kinds of intelligence and surveillance and/or to provide electronic counter measures. They could even deploy special operators for support missions.

As far as I know the US does not put subs in the Black Sea. First of all, I believe there is a treaty against letting foreign subs in. Second, the seabed topography of Turkish Straight would prove extremely dangerous to navigate, transiting on the surface defeats the whole purpose, and traveling at parascope depth risks detection and getting hit by a ship. Third, the Russians likely have the entrance to the Black Sea highly monitored. Fourth, if the US submarine was detected, it could potentially become trapped which in the case of war would be a very high risk situation for such a valuable asset. Nuclear subs aren’t the best for getting in close to land in shallow water and are not the stealthiest option these days.

More likely special ops would come in through a neighboring country. We also do have “mini-subs” (submersibles) for special ops but they have a very short range. I’m sure we have more than one disguised fishing vessel or pleasure craft passively collecting information in the Black Sea.

As good as military radars are, picking up a small fiberglass or wooden boat or rigid inflatable boat can actually be difficult from a distance. That’s why sailboats (due to their limited agility) are generally required to have radar reflectors installed.

There are also autonomous underwater drones that often look much like torpedos designed for reconnaissance purposes. Apparently we (the US) have announced we’re handing over ”unmanned coastal defense vessels”… it’s not really clear what those are but at the least probably provide recon and possibly (but unlikely) serve as weapons platform.

Somehow we have managed to get very accurate intelligence through this entire conflict- and frankly even before it started.

———

As for the sunken Russian battle cruiser, I highly doubt that if this thing had big enough fire and explosion of arms to ultimately cause enough damage to sink the ship (a naval ship mind you) that all 500 sailors survived. I suppose if everyone abandoned ship at the first sign of fire (if we believe the ship was not hit with missiles), then maybe everyone survived. One would expect however the crew to make an effort to save the ship… maybe not considering the reported morale of many of these Russians. Exploding munitions is obviously extremely dangerous. And these Slava class boats, like most Russian boats, are known to be over the top with the quantity of weapons they carry.
 

Citysnaps

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As far as I know the US does not put subs in the Black Sea. First of all, I believe there is a treaty against letting foreign subs in. Second, the seabed topography of Turkish Straight would prove extremely dangerous to navigate, transiting on the surface defeats the whole purpose, and traveling at parascope depth risks detection and getting hit by a ship. Third, the Russians likely have the entrance to the Black Sea highly monitored. Fourth, if the US submarine was detected, it could potentially become trapped which in the case of war would be a very high risk situation for such a valuable asset. Nuclear subs aren’t the best for getting in close to land in shallow water and are not the stealthiest option these days.

More likely special ops would come in through a neighboring country. We also do have “mini-subs” (submersibles) for special ops but they have a very short range. I’m sure we have more than one disguised fishing vessel or pleasure craft passively collecting information in the Black Sea.

As good as military radars are, picking up a small fiberglass or wooden boat or rigid inflatable boat can actually be difficult from a distance. That’s why sailboats (due to their limited agility) are generally required to have radar reflectors installed.

There are also autonomous underwater drones that often look much like torpedos designed for reconnaissance purposes. Apparently we (the US) have announced we’re handing over ”unmanned coastal defense vessels”… it’s not really clear what those are but at the least probably provide recon and possibly (but unlikely) serve as weapons platform.

Somehow we have managed to get very accurate intelligence through this entire conflict- and frankly even before it started.

———

As for the sunken Russian battle cruiser, I highly doubt that if this thing had big enough fire and explosion of arms to ultimately cause enough damage to sink the ship (a naval ship mind you) that all 500 sailors survived. I suppose if everyone abandoned ship at the first sign of fire (if we believe the ship was not hit with missiles), then maybe everyone survived. One would expect however the crew to make an effort to save the ship… maybe not considering the reported morale of many of these Russians. Exploding munitions is obviously extremely dangerous. And these Slava class boats, like most Russian boats, are known to be over the top with the quantity of weapons they carry.

I have a ton of respect for the US Navy and some of the amazing feats they've pulled off over the years. Denied waters don't deter them. Just astonishing. The Montreaux Treaty governs passage through the Black Sea. But that would never stand in the way of collecting intelligence we thought valuable enough that could be collected no other way. Personally, I don't think it would be impossible. No doubt in my mind we have the contours and undersea average currents mapped out over the entire globe. I agree that another possibility would be undersea manned submersibles or drones outfitted with electronics could be used to snag communications and other electronic signals,.

I believe most of the intelligence before hostilities was collected through space assets. Also, surveillance missions from RC-135 and Guardrail RC-12 aircraft flying in neighboring friendly countries. At a high enough elevation the range can be hundreds of miles. And they're packed with a ton of intercept electronics and geolocation capability.
 
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AG_PhamD

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I have a ton of respect for the US Navy and some of the amazing feats they've pulled off over the years. Denied waters don't deter them. Just astonishing. The Montreaux Treaty governs passage through the Black Sea. But that would never stand in the way of collecting intelligence we thought valuable enough that could be collected no other way. Personally, I don't think it would be impossible. No doubt in my mind we have the contours and undersea average currents mapped out over the entire globe. I agree that another possibility would be undersea manned submersibles or drones outfitted with electronics could be used to snag communications and other electronic signals,.

I believe most of the intelligence before hostilities was collected through space assets. Also, surveillance missions from RC-135 and Guardrail RC-12 aircraft flying in neighboring friendly countries. At a high enough elevation the range can be hundreds of miles. And they're packed with a ton of intercept electronics and geolocation capability.

Oh, I definitely believe it could be done, especially when you consider things like Operation Ivy Bells (which I imagine you’re aware of) that they were lucky enough to get away with once, let alone carry out regularly for 10 years until some traitor sold out the secret.

But I’d say that was a high risk, very high reward operation. This is probably a risky navigationally and risky in the sense if it gets impounded (for a lack of a better word) or worse destroyed. It’s a $3.5B asset that would take 6-8+ years to replace, if ever. I imagine there are much safer and cheaper ways to collect the same information and complete the same tasks. At the very least, use a smaller, stealthier AIP powered submarine from another country. And actually Turkey has some fairly new subs that are halfway decent- I’m sure they’re already out there monitoring.

I was going to say, when it comes to planes and satellites are probably responsible for much of the collection.

It’s kind of amazing how much satellite imagery has changed war. It’s pretty easy to see what your enemy is doing, even without military grade satellites using commercial services.
 

Citysnaps

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Ivy Bells was an astonishing achievement; in concept, engineering development, and execution. Imagine the Soviets (back then) doing something similar in San Francisco Bay!

A great deal of credit goes to Navy scientist Dr. John Craven who foresaw the need for transforming the Halibut (and other follow ons) into a special programs submarine. That was roughly 50+ years ago and was instrumental in locating the sunken K-129 Russian submarine near Hawaii, which the US subsequently (partially) recovered with the Glomar Explorer and Hughes Mining Barge (outfitted in Redwood City, CA) through Project Azorian - at a depth of 17,000 feet. And Ivy Bells with the collection pod installation and repeated tape recovery missions - all undetected. Right near the Kamchatka Peninsula, a highly strategic and sensitive area - and supposedly well-defended. :)

Imagine what could be done now with the tech we have today.

Coincidentally, this morning I woke up to an NPR interview with Ret. Adm. James Foggo, who talked about Russian maritime operations in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. He said there are six Kilo Class submarines currently on patrol in the Black Sea. I'd be shocked if we didn't know the precise location of every one of them, in real time.

He also had a lot to say about the Moskva. A huge embarrassment, considering it was named after the Russian capitol. Personally, I would love to learn that the secondary explosions were really the result of a shoulder-fired Javelin a half mile away. :)
 
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AG_PhamD

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Ivy Bells was an astonishing achievement; in concept, engineering development, and execution. Imagine the Soviets (back then) doing something similar in San Francisco Bay!

A great deal of credit goes to Navy scientist Dr. John Craven who foresaw the need for transforming the Halibut (and other follow ons) into a special programs submarine. That was roughly 50+ years ago and was instrumental in locating the sunken K-129 Russian submarine near Hawaii, which the US subsequently (partially) recovered with the Glomar Explorer and Hughes Mining Barge (outfitted in Redwood City, CA) through Project Azorian - at a depth of 17,000 feet. And Ivy Bells with the collection pod installation and repeated tape recovery missions - all undetected. Right near the Kamchatka Peninsula, a highly strategic and sensitive area - and supposedly well-defended. :)

Imagine what could be done now with the tech we have today.

Coincidentally, this morning I woke up to an NPR interview with Ret. Adm. James Foggo, who talked about Russian maritime operations in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. He said there are six Kilo Class submarines currently on patrol in the Black Sea. I'd be shocked if we didn't know the precise location of every one of them, in real time.

He also had a lot to say about the Moskva. A huge embarrassment, considering it was named after the Russian capitol. Personally, I would love to learn that the secondary explosions were really the result of a shoulder-fired Javelin a half mile away. :)

Ivy Bells is incredible that they got away with it for years and years and probably would have continued to do so had it not been for the whistle blower. Azorian is incredible because they actually executed such an insane idea and they were very close to being entirely successful, had it not been for the oversight regarding the tensile strength of the claw metal. There have been some rumors that although they lost the more valuable half of the sub, they actually obtained more valuable information than they they’ve let on.

It’s also quite amusing to learn Robert Ballard’s quest to find the Titanic was actually a cover story to find the sunken US Thresher and Scorpion submarines. He was lucky enough to have found the subs and be ahead of schedule. So had less than two weeks to actually search for, find (which he did in like 3 days), and explore the Titanic wreckage. And this was a secret until 4-5 years ago.

The loss of the Moskova is a huge hit- probably in terms of optics more than anything but also their defense strategies. Alternatively, if we buy the Russian narrative, having random uncontrolled fires that blow up your ammunition and sink your ship isn’t exactly flattering either.

Reportedly the ship was not traveling in a fleet with other ships for defense as is typically done and was traveling in repeated, predictable patterns- which would indicate a sense of hubris that they cannot be attacked.

There are also rumors the captain of the ship was killed in the explosion- but that does not seem confirmed. The Russians made it sound like everyone evacuated, but I’m skeptical that if you have an explosion big enough to sink one of the largest warships that no one was killed. And certainly people would be injured too.
 

Citysnaps

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The loss of the Moskova is a huge hit- probably in terms of optics more than anything but also their defense strategies.

Admiral Foggo spoke about that during the NPR interview I referenced, saying the Moskva had integrated defensive systems that could have countered the attack, but the captain was unprofessional in not having the ship on full battle stations status while docked in potentially hostile waters. He also referenced the crew's level of unprofessionalism comparing it to western navies where chief petty officers are the real backbone making sure things are done right.

In a similar vein, Project Azorian tapping undersea cables that carried a lot of *unencrypted* military and other strategic communications around the Kamchatka Peninsula, the impact zone for most Soviet ICBM testing, is bewildering.

Azorian and Ivy Bells operations going back 40-50 years, and no doubt hundreds more similar high risk operations now utilizing far superior tech since then, is what leads me to believe we have collection/reconnaissance assets in the Black Sea. That could be anything from Seawolf/Virginia class subs or other specialized undersea vehicles, or specialized collection packages resting/tethered to the seabed. There's just no way we're going to leave that area uncovered.

As an aside, here's a great story about the R-360 cruise missile and system that took out the Moskva. This appears to be a Ukraine news source.

Best line: "We can only thank the soldiers of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who showed the Russian ship the correct direction, and wish them new successful shots." :)

 
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