Afghanistan (Again)

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I heard a piece about the resurgence of the Taliban on the radio. Despite the problems, people there have noted how much better their lives are now than they were 20 years ago. They mentioned young people having smart phones, internet cafes, freedom of the press, women having jobs, etc. It will not be easy for the Taliban to take all that away now that most people enjoy have been enjoying the freedoms for quite a while.

The US troops could not stay forever. I think everybody knew there would be difficulties when they left. The Afghans now need to work this out themselves, and I hope they will be able to do so.
The Taliban is already on the road to taking this away. They have tortured and killed many hundreds of people in the past few days. Ahmed and his friends with a smart phone in a cafe are not a match for thugs with machetes and a hobby of beheading folks.
 

Scepticalscribe

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I tried reading it but it's seriously up for TL;DR award of the year.

I'm in the camp that believes whether we withdrew 10 years ago or 50 years from now it would still end up with this same result.

Does the article mention anything about what we were doing there in the last 20 years to prepare their government for our withdrawal and their self rule? It appears to be nothing. Whose fault is that?
You may consider it to be "tl;dr" but it is still well worth reading, for it is an analytical, nuanced and thoughtful piece.
I heard a piece about the resurgence of the Taliban on the radio. Despite the problems, people there have noted how much better their lives are now than they were 20 years ago. They mentioned young people having smart phones, internet cafes, freedom of the press, women having jobs, etc. It will not be easy for the Taliban to take all that away now that most people enjoy have been enjoying the freedoms for quite a while.

The US troops could not stay forever. I think everybody knew there would be difficulties when they left. The Afghans now need to work this out themselves, and I hope they will be able to do so.

Again, it is more complicated than that.

More pressing than the question of troops on the ground, is the issue of who shall pay for them, pay their salaries, equip them, train them.

I have had to remind people that the government of President Najibullah did not fall when the Soviets withdrew their forces in 1989, but rather, it fell some time after the USSR collapsed, in December 1991, after which the USSR was no longer in a position to fund the Afghan security services.

Secondly, I imagine that unsavoury alliances may now have to be contemplated and possibly forged, (on the part of the Afghan government with the warlords) as the old warlords (many of them guilty of what are considered to be war crimes), may - along with whatever forces are still answerable to them - have to be summoned from wherever they are comfortably ensconced in retirement; the problem here is that this is thirty years since they fought their wars in the 1990s; they are older, and some of them may be tired of fighting.

Thirdly, in general, the cities - especially the cities in the non-Pashtun areas of Afghanistan, will be very anti-Taliban and not only for the reasons you state in your post, but also, for ethnic reasons; however, the rural areas - especially in the Pashtun areas, will be the regions from where the Taliban derive their greatest support.
 
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Scepticalscribe

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The Taliban is already on the road to taking this away. They have tortured and killed many hundreds of people in the past few days. Ahmed and his friends with a smart phone in a cafe are not a match for thugs with machetes and a hobby of beheading folks.
Yes, but losses have also been inflicted on them.

Paradoxically enough, the Ahmeds sitting in cafes with smart phones can become extraordinarily good fighters if sufficiently motivated (and eventually, with sufficient experience, and indeed, training).

The thing is, the Taliban are not popular in the non-Pashtun areas of the country, and, while they may capture some places, they cannot be certain of holding them. Not without widespread popular support, which they lack.

Even in their first incarnation, they never held the entire country - you may recall how Ahmad Shah Massoud and the Northern Alliance kept them from controlling the northern section of the country.

And, remember, also, the population have already experienced Taliban rule, and most of them loathed it.

Personally, - and I have long thought this - I think a civil war - which may take some time to develop - a far more likely outcome than an easy Taliban victory.
 
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The Taliban will learn they can't control the whole country once they are in power, too region-orientate.

Agreed.

And, in all of the coverage - especially the US coverage insisting that it is high time for the Afghans to "take responsibility for", or "take control of," or "take ownership of," their own security, I have yet to see any reference to the (undoubtedly) malevolent and grotesquely irresponsible role played by Pakistan in the current debacle.

Afghanistan may indeed need to take responsibility for its own security, but the international community also need to insist on Pakistan not being so enthusiastic a player in deliberately undermining the stability of its neighbour by equipping, supporting and enabling the Taliban and their fellow-travellers.
 
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Dear God.

Reports (Deutsche Well and Al Jazeera among others, in other words, reputable sources) suggest that Herat - the third city of Afghanistan, - it lies to the west, not far from the Iranian border, it is not at all Pashtun, and - to my mind, - is (was?) undoubtedly the most advanced, attractive, progressive and civilised place (possibly the wealthiest place, too,) in the country, - has fallen this evening to the Taliban forces.
 

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@Scepticalscribe, you hit the nail on the head about Pakistan. The Taliban had a safe sanctuary for many years and support by Pakistan intelligence services. They feared the Western Powers would create a Western-style democracy in Afghanistan which they did not want to spread to their country.

Absolutely spot on.

This - Pakistan - is a profoundly unstable country, one where the armed forces are answerable to nobody, and with the merest veneer of democracy at times. (Until the 2013 elections, if memory serves, government transitions were notoriously unstable with assassinations and coups regularly interrupting any attempt at establishing a democratic system).

And they feared that Afghanistan would become an ally, or client state, or strong regional supporter, of India.

Their paranoid obsession with India plays an inordinate role in Pakistani affairs.

To my mind, Pakistan should have been held to account (by the west) to a far greater extent than it has been, and lecturing Afghanistan on its short-comings, and on the need to "take control", "take ownership", "take responsibility", misses the point that a near neighbour has been doing absolutely everything in its power to undermine any sort of (political or other) progress on (or in) Afghanistan over the past few decades.

The Afghans - and I regret to say that while they cannot entirely escape the blame for this debacle and unfolding disaster - they are not, by any means, the sole culprits.

I spent the best part of two years in the country, (Afghanistan) and was astonished by the extent of ISI (and, by extension, Pakistani) interference - malevolent, destructive and deliberately destabilising interference - in Afghanistan and in Afghan affairs.

Indeed, when Ashraf Ghani took office, he went to great pains - diplomatically - to attempt to reassure Pakistan (and the ISI) of his bona fides and to persuade them to support his attempts at reform; needless to say, he was unsuccessful, because a stable, peaceful, prosperous (and indeed, any sort of democratic) Afghanistan is not in Pakistan's interest.
 
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JamesMike

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When I was in Pakistan training Afghans against the Soviet hordes I was reminded by my Pakistan ‘co-workers’ how they appreciated our training but don’t think of installing a Western-style government post Soviet presents.
 

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When I was in Pakistan training Afghans against the Soviet hordes I was reminded by my Pakistan ‘co-workers’ how they appreciated our training but don’t think of installing a Western-style government post Soviet presents.

The tragedy is that (possibly excluding the Pashtun, which means the south and east of the country), I have long thought that northern, central and western Afghanistan (the non-Pashtun parts) could form a perfectly reasonable, pretty stable, functioning, country with a sort-of-democracy on a central Asian - or kind of Iranian - model.
 

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This has turned into a shit show.

Just waiting for the video similar to the last person being airlifted off the Embassy in Saigon.
 

Eric

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This has turned into a shit show.

Just waiting for the video similar to the last person being airlifted off the Embassy in Saigon.
I didn't agree with it when Trump started pulling them out and I don't now. I guess there's nothing more American than invading a country, attempting to and failing to rebuild it and then give it back to the same people we fought to get rid of.

In the end we learned nothing from the fate of Soviet Union in Afghanistan.
 
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It's unfortunate what is happening, but did anyone really not see this coming? We spent 20 years building up an army that crumpled in a few days. What were we supposed to do? Stay there another 20 years? Obviously we shouldn't have been there in the first place, but that's hindsight, not a solution. Afghanistan has never been a cohesive state. It's always been a loose collection of tribes. If we couldn't build up a viable alternative to the Taliban in 20 years, then what would staying there longer accomplish? "Nation building" there was a fool's errand.
 

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Unbelievable after all this time, the country is falling this fast. I feel bad for those who were thriving under the protection of America and it’s allies, and are now going to be in a worse spot than before.

However, this is a sign that it needs to be done. If after 20 years things are falling this fast, it proves it was a failed effort. The change will have to come from within the country.
 

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Could it happen in America? If the Trump cult turned into something like the Taliban, would they be able to take over huge areas of America quickly? Many of the areas “conquered” by the Taliban were full of their sympathizers and there was no resistance to their advances. If we had a Trump army invasion, I think they could get most of the Southeast US without a fight.
 

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I didn't agree with it when Trump started pulling them out and I don't now. I guess there's nothing more American than invading a country, attempting to and failing to rebuild it and then give it back to the same people we fought to get rid of.

In the end we learned nothing from the fate of Soviet Union in Afghanistan.
Mr Trump's administration carried out negotiations with the Taliban (in Doha) and signed a "peace agreement" (which the Taliban, needless to say, interpret most flexibly) which excluded the recognised Government of Afghanistan, who weren't even invited to attend the talks.

In this context, it doesn't matter that the Government is incompetent, somewhat corrupt and at times dysfunctional: It is still the internationally recognised Government, - and deserves the respect of being treated as such.

This is unconscionable, and utterly disgraceful.
It's unfortunate what is happening, but did anyone really not see this coming? We spent 20 years building up an army that crumpled in a few days. What were we supposed to do? Stay there another 20 years? Obviously we shouldn't have been there in the first place, but that's hindsight, not a solution. Afghanistan has never been a cohesive state. It's always been a loose collection of tribes. If we couldn't build up a viable alternative to the Taliban in 20 years, then what would staying there longer accomplish? "Nation building" there was a fool's errand.

Okay:

Let's take a few of the points in this post, and examine them.

Afghanistan is not a "loose collection of tribes" - and it never was; yes, the country is home to a number of different ethnicities, (not tribes), but, until the late 1970s, - when it became a tragic pawn in the game of Cold War chess played by the USA and the USSR - it was a reasonably stable, and perfectly functional, and tolerably advanced - for the region and the time - central Asian state.

I know a number of people who visited Afghanistan in the late 1960s, when it was on the "hippie trail", a time when it was a lot more advanced and cosmopolitan, safe, and stable than was, for example, Pakistan.

Re "Afghanistan has never been a cohesive state", yes, the traditional preference has long been for decentralised political arrangements, but - and this is a big but - Afghanistan has been a nation state since 1747, a date, one might care to note, that predates the formation of the United States.

It was a founder member of both the League of Nations and the United Nations.

Re the armed forces dissolving, the US departure has been very poorly executed re both timing (autumn would have been better, when what is quaintly termed "the fighting season" is over and winter approaches) and ensuring that the Afghan armed forces were capable of using whatever equipment was left behind.

And the question of who pays the salaries of the armed forces remains a salient one; I have written it before, but Afghanistan did not collapse when the USSR withdrew their forces in 1989; rather, state collapse occurred in 1992 after the Soviet Union itself had collapsed in 1991, for the remains of the USSR were no longer in a position to pay the salaries of the armed forces of the state.

More to the point, yes, corruption has been an endemic feature of Afghan society (and of the armed forces - it was impossible to obtain accurate stats, for the ranks of both the military and police - and this was both deeply depressing and exceedingly frustrating - were undoubtedly fleshed out with "ghost soldiers" who drew salaries) but it should be pointed out that they have taken horrendous casualties over the past decade.

I spoke on many occasions with a man who - when I first met with him - was Chief of Police of Kabul - and with whom I also met frequently when he later served for years as Deputy Minister of the Interior; in early 2013, he told me that the police force was taking seven to ten casualties a day - a number that (he informed me) had increased to 11-14 casualties a day by the time I left the country nearly two years later.

This is not only unsustainable, - and makes a lie of the canard that says the Afghans won't (or didn't wish to) fight - but, it may also mean that many of those who did choose to fight are dead.

As are many of those impressive, informed, educated, and idealistic activists of civil society - politicians, parliamentarians, lecturers, lawyers/prosecutors/judges, journalists, reporters, writers, women's rights activists, public servants, NGO workers - those who helped try to make the country and society a better place, - who have been targeted (and assassinated, executed, killed, murdered, slaughtered) for at least a decade.

Early in my time there, - I could hear it from my office around two km away - the biggest bomb to go off in two years in Kabul detonated outside the Supreme Court, killing many (law clerks, lawyers, prosecutors, judges) of the people who worked there.

Unbelievable after all this time, the country is falling this fast. I feel bad for those who were thriving under the protection of America and it’s allies, and are now going to be in a worse spot than before.

However, this is a sign that it needs to be done. If after 20 years things are falling this fast, it proves it was a failed effort. The change will have to come from within the country.
Yes, but the disruptive, and malevolent role played by Pakistan - which armed, sheltered, supported, enabled and facilitated the Taliban (and has done so for well over a quarter of a century) also needs to be addressed.

And much of this suport may well have come from the sort of obscene levels of aid that the US has already paid Pakistan, which is not a regional actor that behaves in good faith.

Pakistan does not wish for a peaceful, stable, sort of democratic Afghanistan, and has done everything in its power to disrupt, and destabilise and undermine Afghanistan, and whatever government holds office in Kabul.
 
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Scepticalscribe

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I will say that not all collapses are the same.

For example, I never expected the Government in Kabul to be able to hold Lashkar Gah, or Kandahar; these lie in the Pashtun region, and were home to the Taliban, - the Taliban came from Kandahar, and this served as their capital when they last ruled the country - and had always been strongholds of the Taliban.

However, I am stunned - and shocked - at the fall of Herat; I've been there, it is a beautiful city.

A civilised, cosmopolitan, cultured, urbane, wealthy, place - elegant and sophisticated, home to Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras, the antithesis of everything the Taliban stands for, the kind of place where the Taliban is loathed.

The same applies to Mazar-i-Sharif - which I have also visited, - another urbane and cosmopolitan city - and which reports this evening suggest may also have fallen to Taliban forces.

This suggests that loyalty to (and belief in) the government in Kabul is extremely limited, (and President Ghani has shown himself unable to forge alliances with those who do not necessarily agree with him - such as the old warlords) and also suggests that some of the people who run these regions might be cutting deals with the forces (suspiciously well armed forces) of the Taliban in order to save their own skins and the towns and people they are responsible for.

I will say this: The Taliban may well win for now, - as seems to be happening - but I do not believe that they will be able to hold all of the country.

Instead, and I have thought this for years, I think another civil war all but inevitable.
 
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