Why Americans are sour on the economy

[Chew Toy McCoy]

“The economy” has always been code for how rich people are doing. So according to the traditional metrics that tell you how rich people are doing the economy is doing great – stock market up, inflation rate declining, unemployment low. But pundits on the left and in the center seemed to be baffled as to why Americans are pessimistic about the economy. On the right if there is a Democrat in the White House the economy is disastrous regardless of any reality.

So I’ll straighten things out with this disconnect.

1. If you are a renter or looking to buy a house you are getting hosed. Rental property owners will hose you just because they can. House prices may be down but your payment is higher due to the Fed rate increases.

2. If you use credit cards, and a lot of people do, and don’t pay them off in full every month, and a lot of people don’t, you are getting screwed by the Fed’s rate increases. If you don’t change your spending habits, which could just be basic necessities on credit, it could cost you several hundred dollars more a month in card payments just paying the minimum than it did just a year ago. And I’ve said this before, if people stopped using credit cards to live outside their means our economy would collapse.

3. Utilities and insurance are through the roof.

4. New one to me but it makes sense, during the pandemic people weren’t spending money as much. Now that spending is back to normal it’s really hitting people on how much things cost during normal times.

5. After many decades of the financial sector cyclically causing recessions and emptying retirement accounts with close to 0 repercussions it’s probably best to never feel good about the economy.

These are just off the top of my head. Probably more to come….

 

[mac_in_tosh]

Even granting all of these points, why would anyone think that (a) it's all the fault of Biden and the Democrats and (b) Trump will fix it (on day one, or in 24 hours or whatever absurd claim he makes about it)?

 

[Yoused]

“The economy” has always been code for how rich people are doing. So according to the traditional metrics that tell you how rich people are doing the economy is doing great – stock market up, inflation rate declining, unemployment low. But pundits on the left and in the center seemed to be baffled as to why Americans are pessimistic about the economy.

The media, which is our primary means of getting the zeitgeist, is owned and run by average Americans. Oh, wait, no it is not, it is controlled by moneyed interests and executives exercising "fiduciary duty". And pundits, well, if they are carried by the media, you can guess the wealth good narrative will be heavily played, and Robert Reich types may get print but will be portrayed as wackos.

In the end, though, if the upper crust completely lose control of the narrative, they are screwed. They probably will not, but it seems to be going against them just now.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Even granting all of these points, why would anyone think that (a) it's all the fault of Biden and the Democrats and (b) Trump will fix it (on day one, or in 24 hours or whatever absurd claim he makes about it)?

Because unfortunately for far too many the President gets the blame and credit for everything. Congress is who we should be looking at but it feels like we've resigned ourselves to seeing Congress as little more than adult daycare debate club.

 

[mac_in_tosh]

Because unfortunately for far too many the President gets the blame and credit for everything.

Yeah, I guess it's like the baseball manager getting blamed because his team can't hit.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Oops posted in wrong thread.

 

[dada_dave]

The media, which is our primary means of getting the zeitgeist, is owned and run by average Americans. Oh, wait, no it is not, it is controlled by moneyed interests and executives exercising "fiduciary duty". And pundits, well, if they are carried by the media, you can guess the wealth good narrative will be heavily played, and Robert Reich types may get print but will be portrayed as wackos.

In the end, though, if the upper crust completely lose control of the narrative, they are screwed. They probably will not, but it seems to be going against them just now.

Except at the moment no matter what economic news is portrayed as bad:

The NYT reference is that, prior to the release of the jobs report, indicators were that new jobs were going to slow substantially so the headlines all read about how terrible the jobs report would be. When the jobs report came out stronger than expected, the headlines were changed to reflect, not good news, but that was still bad news.

Basically on the economy, heads or tails, Biden loses. Now after getting mocked mercilessly for it, the NYT did change the headline:

But still, far from being a cheerleader, the media has been obsessed about telling everyone how bad the economy is. Which probably explains polling where a lot more people think the economy is terrible even if personally they don’t feel that way.

https://www.axios.com/2023/08/18/americans-economy-bad-personal-finances-good

Oh and I doubt, would like to be wrong but doubt, that there’s a newfound empathy for people struggling at the poverty line since 2020.

 

[Herdfan]

Except at the moment no matter what economic news is portrayed as bad:

Most indicators don't reflect what is going on at a household level. For example, if someone has a job, they don't care much about the unemployment rate. If their mortgage is at 3.5% and they are not looking to buy a new house in the next few years, they don't care if current rates are 7%.

But still, far from being a cheerleader, the media has been obsessed about telling everyone how bad the economy is. Which probably explains polling where a lot more people think the economy is terrible even if personally they don’t feel that way.

Because people's grocery bill is up 200+%. Gas prices are up. Everything is costing people more and they know/feel it. So while I am lucky that I don't struggle to buy food or pay my utilities, I still notice the increases.

 

[dada_dave]

Most indicators don't reflect what is going on at a household level. For example, if someone has a job, they don't care much about the unemployment rate. If their mortgage is at 3.5% and they are not looking to buy a new house in the next few years, they don't care if current rates are 7%.




Because people's grocery bill is up 200+%. Gas prices are up. Everything is costing people more and they know/feel it. So while I am lucky that I don't struggle to buy food or pay my utilities, I still notice the increases.

Grocery bills are not up 200%, not even close. Gas prices fluctuate all the time, Saudi Arabia announced they were cutting production to deliberately raise prices. But your last statement is the point of the poll >60% of people say the exact same thing. Their personal finances are good to excellent, but they think “the economy” is bad. It’s the media that pushes the economy is terrible message. Which does not reflect reality.

More examples:

Further it can’t reflect any newfound empathy for the American poor because it wouldn’t then be republicans who are then viewed as trustworthy on the economy when the only thing the republicans push is hurting those struggling with price increases even more.

So to contradict @Chew Toy McCoy basically the news media isn’t confused why people are down on the economy, they are primarily responsible for pushing that narrative. If the job report had been bad, they wouldn’t have headlined their articles “great! jobs are down!” would they? In fact we know they wouldn’t have, because they were preparing articles on how a terrible jobs report was bad for the economy. When the jobs report came back positive, they switched the narrative to one that a strong jobs report was now bad.

The reality is that we have the highest labor participation and lowest unemployment in 20 years. Strikes are happening because labor has the best time to get the best wages in that time and reverse the damage to yhe American worker from the 2008 crash. That’s the real reason “nobody wants to work anymore” - nobody wants to work for the shit pay and shit conditions that employers came to expect.

So no the wealthy media isn’t pushing the economy bad narrative because households are hurting even if “the economy” is good and therefore we need to help households. If that were the case we’d have a very different media environment.

The news media is simultaneously pushing “no one wants to work anymore” because we’re all so fat and happy and the economy is terrible because we are spending all our money on food, rent, and gas and having trouble making ends meet. Those are two diametrically opposed arguments and the fact that they are both being pushed should be a clue that neither is correct and the people doing the pushing don’t have the best interests of the American worker at heart.

 

[dada_dave]

Yeah, I guess it's like the baseball manager getting blamed because his team can't hit.

There is maybe, maybe a glimmer of good news on that front:

Basically add up wrong track but it’s GOP/Trump’s fault + right track it’s 71% of people. Of course that’s one pill and overall not the economy specifically. Also presumably the guy did a split of right track too as he’s the one presenting the data, but I haven’t double checked myself.

 

[mac_in_tosh]

Because people's grocery bill is up 200+%. Gas prices are up.

First of all, a 200% increase is a factor of 3 i.e. you're implying grocery bills are 3X recent values which is clearly not the case. Maybe you are using the same arithmetic Trump did when he said his condo was 30,000 sq ft instead of 10,000 sq ft.

Second, I've noticed a substantial decrease in gas prices from a year or so ago. Biden was blamed by right wing media for the price hike but won't be given credit for the reduction (when probably neither was very much under his control).

 

[Yoused]

Second, I've noticed a substantial decrease in gas prices from a year or so ago.

That much depends a lot on where you are. Here, we currently have gas prices in the neighborhood of five dollars a gallon, which, IIRC, is about a dollar higher than last October.

 

[mac_in_tosh]

That much depends a lot on where you are. Here, we currently have gas prices in the neighborhood of five dollars a gallon, which, IIRC, is about a dollar higher than last October.

In any case, is this directly attributable to Biden? It seems to me that inflation was a global issue brought about in part by the Ukraine war.

One hurdle for Biden is that Trump and the right wing media keep pumping out misinformation about the Orange Menace's "great economy." When he left office the economy was in shambles. The imbalance of trade in Nov. 2020 was at a ten year high despite his tariffs and he was the first president since Hoover to leave office with fewer jobs than when he started. Also, fully 25% of the current national debt accrued during his administration.

 

[GermanSuplex]

When the economy does well, the wealthy do well and the middle class gets by. When the economy tanks, the wealthy do well and the middle class get screwed.

Change the tax system.

 

[mac_in_tosh]

When the economy does well, the wealthy do well and the middle class gets by. When the economy tanks, the wealthy do well and the middle class get screwed.

Change the tax system.

Hard to do when the wealthy are in charge.

 

[Yoused]

It seems to me that inflation was a global issue brought about in part by the Ukraine war.

It seems to me that inflation is a global issue brought about by economic inertia with regard to international legal structures that give large businesses effective free reign to raise prices without concerns about a competitive marketplace to restrain open-ended profit taking.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Grocery bills are not up 200%, not even close. Gas prices fluctuate all the time, Saudi Arabia announced they were cutting production to deliberately raise prices. But your last statement is the point of the poll >60% of people say the exact same thing. Their personal finances are good to excellent, but they think “the economy” is bad. It’s the media that pushes the economy is terrible message. Which does not reflect reality.

More examples:

View attachment 26422

Further it can’t reflect any newfound empathy for the American poor because it wouldn’t then be republicans who are then viewed as trustworthy on the economy when the only thing the republicans push is hurting those struggling with price increases even more.

So to contradict @Chew Toy McCoy basically the news media isn’t confused why people are down on the economy, they are primarily responsible for pushing that narrative. If the job report had been bad, they wouldn’t have headlined their articles “great! jobs are down!” would they? In fact we know they wouldn’t have, because they were preparing articles on how a terrible jobs report was bad for the economy. When the jobs report came back positive, they switched the narrative to one that a strong jobs report was now bad.

The reality is that we have the highest labor participation and lowest unemployment in 20 years. Strikes are happening because labor has the best time to get the best wages in that time and reverse the damage to yhe American worker from the 2008 crash. That’s the real reason “nobody wants to work anymore” - nobody wants to work for the shit pay and shit conditions that employers came to expect.

So no the wealthy media isn’t pushing the economy bad narrative because households are hurting even if “the economy” is good and therefore we need to help households. If that were the case we’d have a very different media environment.

View attachment 26424

The news media is simultaneously pushing “no one wants to work anymore” because we’re all so fat and happy and the economy is terrible because we are spending all our money on food, rent, and gas and having trouble making ends meet. Those are two diametrically opposed arguments and the fact that they are both being pushed should be a clue that neither is correct and the people doing the pushing don’t have the best interests of the American worker at heart.

Housing cost, car payments, and credit card interest rates are through the roof. Nobody needs the news or politicians to tell them what their reality is like and they definitely don’t need to be told that their reality doesn’t count because there’s contrary data that doesn’t personally affect them.

 

[dada_dave]

Housing cost, car payments, and credit card interest rates are through the roof. Nobody needs the news or politicians to tell them what their reality is like and they definitely don’t need to be told that their reality doesn’t count because there’s contrary data that doesn’t personally affect them.

Except that’s not what’s happening here. I’m not dismissing the reality of the people who are suffering and have suffered under American capitalism. But I also won’t let that be twisted and used to hurt those people even further. The reality is “the economy” is not doing badly by any stretch of the imagination. And again your thesis is incorrect: the news media isn’t confused, the news media is pushing the contrary. You have it backwards. People are profoundly pessimistic based on contrary “feels” that don’t personally affect them. If your thesis were correct, then the majority would be saying their personal finances were in bad shape but have some mistaken belief that economy was fine. It’s the opposite. A very strong majority say that their finances are good to excellent but that “the economy” is terrible.

If you don’t think that media can influence the way people view their lives, well I’ve got millions of people to show you voting for Donald Trump thinking that a wealthy con man is not only going to make their lives better but is even the new messiah.

Again, the same people pushing that “the economy is terrible” are likewise pushing “the nobody wants work anymore” line. So which is it? Are we all fat and happy living off of government handouts or are we struggling to make ends meet? It can’t be both. The truth is we are overall doing okay under the circumstances, coming out of a pandemic and global inflation. There are good parts and bad parts. Labor is actually one of the bright spots.

Here’s how you tell: if the average person was overall struggling as you contend, then labor would be weak. It’s not, labor is finally going on the offensive and striking because for the first time in a long time the American worker finally has leverage. Again, they wouldn’t have that leverage if the economy were terrible and people were struggling overall. Especially in America, we have an unfortunate history, especially recently, with unions and strikes. They can only strike when they have the economic leverage to do it.

These different lines are being pushed out to hurt American workers just as labor is beginning to finally recover from 2008. No things are not perfect, they never are, but acting like the sky is falling when it isn’t is not going to help. Real people have real struggles and we need to address those. Of course we do and should. But we don’t need to make up imaginary economic apocalypses, nor buy into those that are being served up to reverse whatever gains we’ve made.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Except that’s not what’s happening here. I’m not dismissing the reality of the people who are suffering and have suffered under American capitalism. But I also won’t let that be twisted and used to hurt those people even further. The reality is “the economy” is not doing badly by any stretch of the imagination. And again your thesis is incorrect: the news media isn’t confused, the news media is pushing the contrary. You have it backwards. People are profoundly pessimistic based on contrary “feels” that don’t personally affect them. If your thesis were correct, then the majority would be saying their personal finances were in bad shape but have some mistaken belief that economy was fine. It’s the opposite. A very strong majority say that their finances are good to excellent but that “the economy” is terrible.

If you don’t think that media can influence the way people view their lives, well I’ve got millions of people to show you voting for Donald Trump thinking that a wealthy con man is not only going to make their lives better but is even the new messiah.

Again, the same people pushing that “the economy is terrible” are likewise pushing “the nobody wants work anymore” line. So which is it? Are we all fat and happy living off of government handouts or are we struggling to make ends meet? It can’t be both. The truth is we are overall doing okay under the circumstances, coming out of a pandemic and global inflation. There are good parts and bad parts. Labor is actually one of the bright spots.

Here’s how you tell: if the average person was overall struggling as you contend, then labor would be weak. It’s not, labor is finally going on the offensive and striking because for the first time in a long time the American worker finally has leverage. Again, they wouldn’t have that leverage if the economy were terrible and people were struggling overall. Especially in America, we have an unfortunate history, especially recently, with unions and strikes. They can only strike when they have the economic leverage to do it.

These different lines are being pushed out to hurt American workers just as labor is beginning to finally recover from 2008. No things are not perfect, they never are, but acting like the sky is falling when it isn’t is not going to help. Real people have real struggles and we need to address those. Of course we do and should. But we don’t need to make up imaginary economic apocalypses, nor buy into those that are being served up to reverse whatever gains we’ve made.

You and I hang out in different circles because I don’t know anybody who feels good about their housing costs and bills. These range from people in their mid 30’s to retirement and with the exception of one of them, all lefties. Data isn’t going to change people’s minds if they aren’t personally experiencing the impact. The disconnect is often “the economy” and personal finances are used interchangeably in conversation when they are 2 completely different things and the media and politicians almost always only talk about the economy. So it’s no surprise that people wedge in their personal finances when asked about the economy because that’s all they are ever asked to weigh in on.

 

[dada_dave]

You and I hang out in different circles because I don’t know anybody who feels good about their housing costs and bills. These range from people in their mid 30’s to retirement and with the exception of one of them, all lefties.

I agree. I know people who are struggling and those that are not. I can’t speak to you and yours and I am not dismissive of those who are struggling.

Data isn’t going to change people’s minds if they aren’t personally experiencing the impact. The disconnect is often “the economy” and personal finances are used interchangeably in conversation when they are 2 completely different things and the media and politicians almost always only talk about the economy. So it’s no surprise that people wedge in their personal finances when asked about the economy because that’s all they are ever asked to weigh in on.

Oh I agree! that’s how it should be and indeed how it used to be. The issue though is now there is a disconnect between how people view the economy and their personal finances. They used to be linked, now suddenly they aren’t. Suddenly polls indicate that people are overall feeling better about their personal finances and worse about “the economy” which is very atypical. My concern, based on the polling, data, and history of labor, is that we’re being manipulated, not to improve the lives of average Americans, but snuff out any gains we are making. When labor begins to strike, there is a Democratic president supporting the labor movement, and the media starts dooming about how no one wants to work and the economy is terrible no matter what the outcome of any particular report is, I get extremely suspicious. We’ve seen this too many times in our history.