Will Kevin McCarthy become Speaker?

[GermanSuplex]

Very interesting situation here. We are two days away. The caucus is almost dead as far as enthusiasm in their support for him, even with MTG, “Gym” Jordan and even Trump supporting him.

You just don’t see anyone cheering his speakership on though. Just reluctant “he’s the best option” vibes.

If every member shows up to vote, five votes against him tanks him. Republicans are addicted to the circus, and any Republican who tanks McCarthy will become a much bigger and important name overnight.

It’s been very quiet. It could be a quiet event and he gains the votes, or who the hell knows what could happen if he doesn’t lock up the votes. Every democrat and a half-dozen republicans - who could also boost their name value and brand - could come together and elect a speaker of their own.

McCarthy is a very weak leader. Already he has Santos on his hands, and he’s said nothing. He’ll no doubt have caved to the lunatics in his party if he does get the votes, weakening his position before he even gets it and will constantly be herding cats, all of them anxious to start a new conspiracy against Biden, the DoJ, Fauci, etc.

Should be fun either way.

Any thoughts?

 

[Alli]

Damned if ya do, damned if ya don’t. This is just the strangest thing ever. I’d really like to see McCarthy NOT get it. But who is there that would be benign?

 

[Herdfan]

If every member shows up to vote, five votes against him tanks him. Republicans are addicted to the circus, and any Republican who tanks McCarthy will become a much bigger and important name overnight.

Unless the Dems want to have some fun and get a few to cast votes for him.

Damned if ya do, damned if ya don’t. This is just the strangest thing ever. I’d really like to see McCarthy NOT get it. But who is there that would be benign?

There has to be somebody. Anybody. Please.

 

[Macky-Mac]

maybe they'll pick Anthony Devolder......he's got what's needed for the job

 

[Eric]

I get this is a GOP issue right now but the problem by and large is that it's the extremists of the party who hold leadership hostage and when that happens there is no room for agreement with the other party. I'm personally fed up with that mentality, all it means is "we want OUR way only with no exceptions" and the actual constituents (the American) people are the ones getting screwed as a result of hardliners.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Just watched a PBS news clip online where the reporter seemed confident McCarthy still doesn’t have enough votes, and Twitter sentiment is the same…

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1609558914898743298?s=46&t=243--TGLHnL9g9XTteS_Yg

 

[Herdfan]

He is making concessions. Not sure it will be enough.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Well. originally it was five people giving him problems, but even after his concessions, nine more released letters saying he didn’t have their vote yet and voicing concern it may be too late to win them over.

One of the Republican reps has promised a second ballot where they will reveal a challenger to McCarthy, which would be the first in a century, even if McCarthy ends up winning.

 

[dada_dave]

He is making concessions. Not sure it will be enough.

One of the concessions sounded pretty severe too: if I understood right, allowing a no confidence votes in his leadership at any point - a concession he claimed he would never make. Which interestingly I didn’t know was something the speaker could stop. I mean I believe Boehner was subject to such a motion and but resigned before the vote. So I’m intrigued that such a thing was a “concession” as opposed to normal operating procedure. My earlier comment on its severity is more about his own statements to the contrary, that he would never allow it.

 

[GermanSuplex]

This would not give me a lot of hope if I was McCarthy…

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1610043428217159684?s=46&t=sFltgVQXsSKU-Uhkk4MADQ

 

[Herdfan]

One of the concessions sounded pretty severe too: if I understood right, allowing a no confidence votes in his leadership at any point - a concession he claimed he would never make. Which interestingly I didn’t know was something the speaker could stop. I mean I believe Boehner was subject to such a motion and but resigned before the vote. So I’m intrigued that such a thing was a “concession” as opposed to normal operating procedure. My earlier comment on its severity is more about his own statements to the contrary, that he would never allow it.

Pelosi changed the rules so that only someone on the House leadership could bring a no confidence vote. Last thing I read was that McCarthy was willing to go as far as any group of 5 members could ask for a vote. Not sure that is a high bar as there 5 who are "Never Kevins".

 

[lizkat]

Damned if ya do, damned if ya don’t. This is just the strangest thing ever. I’d really like to see McCarthy NOT get it. But who is there that would be benign?

In theory, the Speaker doesn't even have to be a member of the House of Representatives. Yeah.

Can An Outsider Be Speaker of the House?

Does the speaker have to be a member of the House? The Constitution is silent on that question.

www.nbcnews.com

This could be the year some wiseacre from the House Freedom Caucus decides to try that out.

I don't think that Trump could get 218 votes as "an outsider" instead of a member of Congress, but I'd not be surprised if some provocateur like Jim Jordan decides to nominate a Senator for the merry hell of it... say Ted Cruz, just to see if it would fly. After all, the HFC clearly only wants a circus anyway. And Cruz has forever been running over to the House anyway, for years (and against all protocol), to try to tell that other body how to conduct their business.

I'd not think this uncertainty over the speakership a big deal if I thought the Republican Party actually had a platform and set of policies they want to implement in the actual national interest. I'd assume McCarthy would get the job. But so far all I hear is that the party's farther-right wing mostly just wants to investigate Biden 24/7 despite the fact that the American people don't seem all that interested in such plans.

So keeping a total circus going in the House for a few days doesn't sound all that unlikely. Just chalk up another blot on the Republican Party's ledger. Usually it's a few weeks before a Speaker can't herd cats on one or another floor vote. This time it's before there even IS a Speaker to decide what business comes to the floor in regular order.

Maybe the Rs will just go whole hog on the circus idea and elect George Santos. If they won't all help vote with Dems to expel him, is it natural to expect instead that they might all vote to make him Speaker? Just asking for NY03 residents. If they're stuck with him, at least let him be a really visible blot on the R ledger.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Jordan appears to be well-liked by his peers. He stays mostly out of the lunatic stuff but still grandstands and votes with the “free dumb” caucus. The five no votes would probably settle for him, and he may be able to get the rest by tired republicans willing to at least have a bonafide conservative member as speaker.

Scalise is the same, though neither he nor Jordan have given any indication they are interested. However, if McCarthy can’t secure the votes, would they offer themselves for the job?

Who knows. This could all just be much ado about nothing and McCarthy could pull it off. But the bozos have a real chance to make waves and so far, they are not conceding. Matt Gaetz walked out of McCarthy’s office tonight still a firm “no”, and here’s a recent tweet from Rep. Biggs..

https://twitter.com/repandybiggsaz/status/1610080104717099008?s=46&t=waoR4uXDbVlXauQmF-fz_w

McCarthy’s biggest hope right now is that there is no clear alternative and there will be a lot of pressure on the no votes to get in line. I’m sure they don’t want another circus after the disappointing midterms, but I’m sure they’ll get one. I’m not sure if they expected it this soon.

 

[fooferdoggie]

remember they wanted or maybe trump wanted this position?

 

[ronntaylor]

I thought he would eventually convince enough GQP members to get the speakership. But with the recent letter from 9 die-hards, I'm not sure what'll happen. They may force a few rounds of votes. Or he may give out extreme concessions to the worst of the bunch. Can't imagine who would be picked if he doesn't ultimately become speaker.

And I have no fantasies of Jeffries becoming Speaker with enough "moderate" GOP votes. Ain't happening.

 

[GermanSuplex]

remember they wanted or maybe trump wanted this position?

Trump endorsed McCarthy for speaker, but he sure hasn’t been very vocal about it. I think he sent out one post to his social media site that was a tepid endorsement last week.

I’m sure that McCarthy’s rush to Mar-A-Lago two years ago to beg for his forgiveness helped stop Trump from demanding a different leader, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump would be just as happy to see McCarthy fail, then blame it all on his statements after January 6, before he quickly did a 180.

 

[GermanSuplex]

I thought he would eventually convince enough GQP members to get the speakership. But with the recent letter from 9 die-hards, I'm not sure what'll happen. They may force a few rounds of votes. Or he may give out extreme concessions to the worst of the bunch. Can't imagine who would be picked if he doesn't ultimately become speaker.

And I have no fantasies of Jeffries becoming Speaker with enough "moderate" GOP votes. Ain't happening.

Even if McCarthy gets the win, even a second ballot should be embarrassing for the party. It will be especially humiliating for McCarthy, to barely squeak by a win for as much work as he's done (to be fair, he worked hard) and all the ass he's kissed and will have to kiss - it has to be bittersweet at best.

It won't happen, but would be hilarious if five democrats voted for McCarthy, and forever hung over his head that they "gave him a shot". Or if somehow six republicans voted with democrats to choose a speaker.

It'll probably be McCarthy through attrition of the GOP and its infighting. There's nobody else other than McCarthy who can be speaker without there being a shit storm within the party. Even someone the caucus respects like Scalise - for it to come down to disorganization and a split party will be the main story, not who actually gets the seat.

 

[Macky-Mac]

Trump endorsed McCarthy for speaker.....

No wonder McCarthy is having such a hard time getting the votes

 

[Herdfan]

Even if McCarthy gets the win, even a second ballot should be embarrassing for the party.

I disagree. I think it is a win for everyone.

These "leaders" need to be reminded who they work for, and that applies to both parties. Taking one down every once in a while may wake them up a bit.

 

[GermanSuplex]

I disagree. I think it is a win for everyone.

These "leaders" need to be reminded who they work for, and that applies to both parties. Taking one down every once in a while may wake them up a bit.

Hard to argue that.