Will Kevin McCarthy become Speaker?

dada_dave

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You know I'd like for this to be true. Right now I'd say Jordan doesn't have much if any chance of becoming speaker, but the reality is January 6th happened, the Republicans voted to overturn the election results, and two years later people voted the Republicans back into power in the House. Right now polls, regardless of how accurate you think they are, show Trump with a decent shot of winning despite January 6th and 90+ indictments. I'm not sure who is more to blame for this - the media or ourselves, i.e. the general public - but we're in trouble.
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Just saw this from Dave Wasserman after I posted the above. It's possible that some of this will turn around when people start paying attention but the fact that we're here at all points to extreme disengagement of even the voting public and an indictment of our news media. It shouldn't be the case.
 

Edd

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I consume waaaay too much news, and it’s hard to shake the sense that the media as a whole is presenting Trump as a CONSTANT THREAT to keep people watching and clicking, but for fuck’s sake, he can’t be gaining voters. I hope I’m not in the same denial I was in 2016. I’d prefer Biden not run, but that he’s 10x better than Trump at being president is evident.
 

dada_dave

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I consume waaaay too much news, and it’s hard to shake the sense that the media as a whole is presenting Trump as a CONSTANT THREAT to keep people watching and clicking, but for fuck’s sake, he can’t be gaining voters. I hope I’m not in the same denial I was in 2016. I’d prefer Biden not run, but that he’s 10x better than Trump at being president is evident.
A constant threat of winning, but not the threat he, and the Republican party, actually pose to the republic. It's horse-race coverage not stakes. (The is not a shot at Dave Wasserman whose job it is to cover elections, but the news media at large which doesn't seem to be able to articulate any point than "how does it sell?" rather than "why is this important?")
 

Edd

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A constant threat of winning
I mean, fuck the polls, do we actually believe this? His reputation (haha) suffers by the day and he makes no new friends.

“Help me Taylor Swift and Tom Cruise!” There’s just no way this asshole can’t be beat. THAT’S IF HE’S NOT UNDER HOUSE ARREST! You know I’m serious because all caps.
 

dada_dave

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I mean, fuck the polls, do we actually believe this? His reputation (haha) suffers by the day and he makes no new friends.

“Help me Taylor Swift and Tom Cruise!” There’s just no way this asshole can’t be beat. THAT’S IF HE’S NOT UNDER HOUSE ARREST! You know I’m serious because all caps.
I know. It should be and maybe the polls are all somehow wrong. I'd certainly like to think so. Maybe they'll move once people start paying attention. I'd like to think that too. But honestly? Voters were given a chance to repudiate Republicans in 2022. They didn't. Oh Democrats didn't lose by as badly as a party normally does when in power. If the Republican party were just a standard political party, that would've been considered a fantastic, almost amazing result. But the Republicans aren't a normal party anymore. And the media, and the public at large, still insist on treating them like one ... and that applies even to Trump.
 

GermanSuplex

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It’s not that I don’t take Trump as a serious threat, but he has seriously jumped the shark. There’s a new generation of young voters who have been through school shooting drills, targets of anti-whatever bullying, etc. Biden has been crushing it as a leader and is as energized as I’ve seen him, even during his campaign… a very necessary thing during these multitude of crisis.

Meanwhile, the republicans are out removing their own Speaker and nominating nitwits like Gym f******g Jordan, their second-choice, because Trump told them to.

Biden isn’t perfect, but the complaints may as well be non-existent when compared to the alternative.

To be fair, American voters rejected Trump twice. He didn’t win over the majority of Americans then, he didn’t do it in 2020, and he has cost the republicans multiple races. I don’t see the third time being the charm, I don’t see enough republicans sacrificing their seat to be on the record voting for Speaker Gym, and I see democrats again doing better than expected. Incumbents have an advantage too, Trump just blew his.

I feel good, man. 😎
 

dada_dave

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Just saw this from Dave Wasserman after I posted the above. It's possible that some of this will turn around when people start paying attention but the fact that we're here at all points to extreme disengagement of even the voting public and an indictment of our news media. It shouldn't be the case.
A counter to Dave Wasserman's argument:
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Screen Shot 2023-10-14 at 4.46.03 PM.png
 

Roller

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It’s not that I don’t take Trump as a serious threat, but he has seriously jumped the shark. There’s a new generation of young voters who have been through school shooting drills, targets of anti-whatever bullying, etc. Biden has been crushing it as a leader and is as energized as I’ve seen him, even during his campaign… a very necessary thing during these multitude of crisis.

Meanwhile, the republicans are out removing their own Speaker and nominating nitwits like Gym f******g Jordan, their second-choice, because Trump told them to.

Biden isn’t perfect, but the complaints may as well be non-existent when compared to the alternative.

To be fair, American voters rejected Trump twice. He didn’t win over the majority of Americans then, he didn’t do it in 2020, and he has cost the republicans multiple races. I don’t see the third time being the charm, I don’t see enough republicans sacrificing their seat to be on the record voting for Speaker Gym, and I see democrats again doing better than expected. Incumbents have an advantage too, Trump just blew his.

I feel good, man. 😎
I hope you’re right, but I don’t share your optimism. I remember too well the run up to the 2016 election, when the pundits were all predicting a Trump loss. The political landscape is quite different now, but it won’t take much for Trump to eke out a win, no matter what happens with his many indictments. There are many fraught scenarios: Biden suffers a health scare, the economy falters (I’m not talking about Wall Street), we get drawn further into the Middle East conflict, support for Biden’s requests for more aid to Ukraine declines further…
 

Edd

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Nothing I read is making me optimistic here. I’m currently of the opinion that Jordan gets there. Republicans are running on empty when it comes to ideas, ethics, intelligence, and if they promise just a few Dems the right things.…
 

GermanSuplex

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Nothing I read is making me optimistic here. I’m currently of the opinion that Jordan gets there. Republicans are running on empty when it comes to ideas, ethics, intelligence, and if they promise just a few Dems the right things.…

I will be eating a s*** sandwich if Jacketless Gym is Speaker in a few days time. If you can only lose four or five votes, I just don’t see it happening. McCarthy went through hell to win but they’re going to shoehorn Gym in there? It’s not that they don’t want to look stupid that makes me think they won’t go there.. they will probably do that regardless. I just don’t see there being enough republicans in moderate suburban districts (or blue districts) willing to risk a primary challenger.

“Donald Trump told them he wanted Jim Jordan as Speaker, so all the republicans fell in line and did what Trump told them to” is how that will be sold by democrats, and it will be mostly if not entirely true.

As I’ve mentioned a few times, Ken Buck is on national television stating he wants a public admission that the 2020 election wasn’t stolen as a requisite for his vote. His policies align with the Freedom Caucus, but he seems to not be amused by their circus antics. He would most certainly be a “no” on Jordan, and he’s not even a moderate.

Not to mention, Jordan is a one-trick pony and he’s incapable of leading anything, and he’d probably end up suffering a worse fate than McCarthy even if he got the job.

Reports if you google "Speaker's Race" into Google News is that Jordan and his cohorts are trying to strongarm moderates, even pulling in Hannity to issue thinly-veiled threats of primaries.

Republicans will have a whole different headache on their hands if they vote in Jordan.
 

dada_dave

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Couldn't agree more, it's easy to bust on them but the reality is our system is broken at the worst possible time. I fear anyone sane and reasonable (yes, I believe their party does have that in their ranks) won't stand a chance. In the end they'll have to answer to the American people and we're all running out of patience.

Dems can also step up here and help out for the good of everyone, I know it's not a popular opinion but IMO reaching out and working together benefits us all.


Scott MacFarlane
@MacFarlaneNews
·
Oct 15
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) tells NBC "We are ready, willing and able to enter into a bipartisan governing coalition"... amid House GOP standoff over who should be Speaker of the House

They just need a Republican partner. That's the hard part.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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The light at the end of the tunnel is if we can keep MAGA out of ultimate power, and I mean power more than just obstruction, for the next couple years their whole thing will implode and you can already see signs. Far right movements just start getting weird, incoherent, and anti-problem solving. Sooner than later most people, even on their side, start realizing book bans, contraceptive restrictions, and corruption fishing expeditions aren’t solving a damn thing for them or anybody.
 

GermanSuplex

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I’m pulling a Trump and sticking to no Speaker Gym. They’re strong-arming the caucus.

I will give myself an out and say that I don’t see Jordan doing any better than McCarthy. Republicans don’t understand Jordan is not what “the people” want. It’s what the loudest minority of their caucus wants. He barely got 50% after two rounds of caucus votes.

I’m guessing he’s close enough that he thinks he can put pressure on the five or six he needs on a house floor vote to make them vote one way or the other, and hope fear keeps them from not voting for him.
 

GermanSuplex

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Byron Donalds is abrasive, but he’s definitely not Jim Jordan. He’d be tolerated as much as any Republican, I suppose. A far better choice than Jim Jordan and at least he’s brave enough to speak out about overt racism some of the time. I think he goes with Trump too much for my liking, but he at least centers himself in some reality.
 

Citysnaps

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Byron Donalds is abrasive, but he’s definitely not Jim Jordan. He’d be tolerated as much as any Republican, I suppose. A far better choice than Jim Jordan and at least he’s brave enough to speak out about overt racism some of the time. I think he goes with Trump too much for my liking, but he at least centers himself in some reality.

Any idea what his view is on the 2020 presidential election being rigged and stolen?
 
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