Bernie thinks Trump could win a second term

Chew Toy McCoy

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From a recent Bernie interview he said a lot of the conditions that put Trump in office the first time are still there or are worse. Sure you can blame covid for some of it, but not all of it, and if you are living a bad situation it really doesn’t matter.

Frankly, Biden isn’t doing enough. Just about everything he is getting praised for is just because it’s in the talking about it phase. It hasn’t actually happened. A lot of the progressive and left activists goals are all but off the table now. There was a recent article about how Biden defanged the left as many activists and progressives have largely fallen silent which gives off the impression he’s doing a good job in their eyes. In reality what he did was give them more government access which they are happy to have a seat at the table and don’t want to lose it. What it doesn’t mean is things are actually getting done. It’s an extension of the government saying they are going to form a commission or study which in most cases just means they are going to show interest but ultimately do nothing.

What could Biden do? He could do executive actions on things like minimum wage, college debt, and legalizing marijuana. He could pull Manchin into his office and tell him that he will be his and his state's best friend if he plays ball and if he doesn’t he will be their worst enemy. President Johnson did this during the civil rights movement. “He’s not Trump” is getting old and to many it appeared, if nothing else, that Trump was actually getting things done.
 

lizkat

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From a recent Bernie interview he said a lot of the conditions that put Trump in office the first time are still there or are worse. Sure you can blame covid for some of it, but not all of it, and if you are living a bad situation it really doesn’t matter.

Frankly, Biden isn’t doing enough. Just about everything he is getting praised for is just because it’s in the talking about it phase. It hasn’t actually happened. A lot of the progressive and left activists goals are all but off the table now. There was a recent article about how Biden defanged the left as many activists and progressives have largely fallen silent which gives off the impression he’s doing a good job in their eyes. In reality what he did was give them more government access which they are happy to have a seat at the table and don’t want to lose it. What it doesn’t mean is things are actually getting done. It’s an extension of the government saying they are going to form a commission or study which in most cases just means they are going to show interest but ultimately do nothing.

What could Biden do? He could do executive actions on things like minimum wage, college debt, and legalizing marijuana. He could pull Manchin into his office and tell him that he will be his and his state's best friend if he plays ball and if he doesn’t he will be their worst enemy. President Johnson did this during the civil rights movement. “He’s not Trump” is getting old and to many it appeared, if nothing else, that Trump was actually getting things done.

You ain't lyin'. It's a problem. The other problem is that the establishment Dems are getting behind candidates they figure are "theirs" for the primaries... example in Ohio some establishment dough is getting behind Shontel Brown trying to nudge Nina Turner out of frontrunner slot in the primary race for the 11th CD (seat now vacant). Brown is seen more as play-ball (with centrist Dems) than Turner ever was or ever will be.


Edit: more on same topic

 
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Chew Toy McCoy

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You ain't lyin'. It's a problem. The other problem is that the establishment Dems are getting behind candidates they figure are "theirs" for the primaries... example in Ohio some establishment dough is getting behind Shontel Brown trying to nudge Nina Turner out of frontrunner slot in the primary race for the 11th CD (seat now vacant). Brown is seen more as play-ball (with centrist Dems) than Turner ever was or ever will be.


Bernie also said Democrats still aren't hitting the streets and mixing with the common people which echos Hillary's feeling she didn't need to and we all know what happened with that tactic.
 

lizkat

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Bernie also said Democrats still aren't hitting the streets and mixing with the common people which echos Hillary's feeling she didn't need to and we all know what happened with that tactic.

I'm gonna have to go w/ Bernie on that. The journos who specialize in politics in metro media outlets are forever chasing (and so amplifying) the names they already know in the Beltway, i.e. incumbents in Congress, past aides and past Congress critters who are now lobbyists and so forth.

So a progressive or even a centrist Dem challenger does have to get out there and do retail politics for sure, precinct by precinct, never mind if the only media who show up are from a regional newspaper or local TV stations. There's no other way to fend off the drumbeat of Fox News political views making its way into shopworn clichés about Dems on social media every day. Any challenger has to get out there and be visible among the people in real life. If an incumbent Dem wants to be re-elected, then he or she better be able to do some local photo ops or poster-sized charts on stuff that actually got done per past campaign promises...

For 2022 that's particularly true for incumbent Dem House members sporting GOP targets on their backs. The Rs are looking to retrieve seats that flipped blue in 2018 or 2020. What's strange is so many GOP state chairs choosing not to recall that the reason those seats flipped blue generally had to do with some downdraft off of Trump (or his in-office performance)... and so far it seems the RNC also thinks the GOP's most suitable candidates are still pro-Trumpers.

I don't really think that DNC-crafted "messaging" ads will help Dem candidates prove the RNC wrong there. It will be ads tailored to local situations that prove more effective. People's eyes really do glaze over when ads come on that only echo the Dems' national platform. The platform is important for energizing registration efforts and keeping activists eager to help put more Dems into office from dog-catcher to prez. But all politics is local in the end: the problems, and the solutions too, even if the money came from the federal budget. "Show me the damn skateboard park."
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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I'm gonna have to go w/ Bernie on that. The journos who specialize in politics in metro media outlets are forever chasing (and so amplifying) the names they already know in the Beltway, i.e. incumbents in Congress, past aides and past Congress critters who are now lobbyists and so forth.

So a progressive or even a centrist Dem challenger does have to get out there and do retail politics for sure, precinct by precinct, never mind if the only media who show up are from a regional newspaper or local TV stations. There's no other way to fend off the drumbeat of Fox News political views making its way into shopworn clichés about Dems on social media every day. Any challenger has to get out there and be visible among the people in real life. If an incumbent Dem wants to be re-elected, then he or she better be able to do some local photo ops or poster-sized charts on stuff that actually got done per past campaign promises...

For 2022 that's particularly true for incumbent Dem House members sporting GOP targets on their backs. The Rs are looking to retrieve seats that flipped blue in 2018 or 2020. What's strange is so many GOP state chairs choosing not to recall that the reason those seats flipped blue generally had to do with some downdraft off of Trump (or his in-office performance)... and so far it seems the RNC also thinks the GOP's most suitable candidates are still pro-Trumpers.

I don't really think that DNC-crafted "messaging" ads will help Dem candidates prove the RNC wrong there. It will be ads tailored to local situations that prove more effective. People's eyes really do glaze over when ads come on that only echo the Dems' national platform. The platform is important for energizing registration efforts and keeping activists eager to help put more Dems into office from dog-catcher to prez. But all politics is local in the end: the problems, and the solutions too, even if the money came from the federal budget. "Show me the damn skateboard park."

I think Democrats think the average Jane and Joe are content with them saying they are busy in DC chiseling away at legislation (that hasn’t and may not pass). I think that’s a recipe for failure.
 

Herdfan

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I don't think Trump can win a second term. He had his chance, but now he could pull a solid 40%, but not much more. As noted, some of those who put him in office the first time have moved on. Maybe not to the Dems, but they won't be coming back to Trump. His last month was just a mess and they won't forget that.
 

lizkat

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I think Democrats think the average Jane and Joe are content with them saying they are busy in DC chiseling away at legislation (that hasn’t and may not pass). I think that’s a recipe for failure.

I am somewhat concerned, although I'm speaking of the midterms and not 2024 here. The Rs seem to want an infrastructure bill primarily as a campaign weapon to fend off Dems who would say that the Rs are still just the party of NO whether in or out of power. But it's true that the Rs have kept cutting away at the pricetag on the bill all along, and the Ds as usual have given away near to half the loaf on grounds that it's necessary to be "pragmatic" in an era when bipartisanship is hard to come by. Regardless of public pronouncements either way and a lot of volatility as the bill enters amendment stage, there have been a lot of blue congress critters getting their back up on some of the cuts... BEFORE the amendments.

 

Chew Toy McCoy

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I don't think Trump can win a second term. He had his chance, but now he could pull a solid 40%, but not much more. As noted, some of those who put him in office the first time have moved on. Maybe not to the Dems, but they won't be coming back to Trump. His last month was just a mess and they won't forget that.

If the candidate isn't Trump it will be somebody just like him and probably worse because they'll share his views but keep away from his mistakes (that should have disqualified him but didn't).
 

Eric

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I don't think Trump can win a second term. He had his chance, but now he could pull a solid 40%, but not much more. As noted, some of those who put him in office the first time have moved on. Maybe not to the Dems, but they won't be coming back to Trump. His last month was just a mess and they won't forget that.
I said that same thing before his first term and we all know how that turned out. I think it would be unwise for anyone to underestimate his ability to win another election, it should be taken just as seriously as the last election IMO.
 

SuperMatt

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I said that same thing before his first term and we all know how that turned out. I think it would be unwise for anyone to underestimate his ability to win another election, it should be taken just as seriously as the last election IMO.
Plus all the laws that make it harder to vote for people not in the Trump target demographic. He could lose by 7 million votes and win the electoral college.

I was reading about the ”1776” thing that Trump did. The college that started it is now selling it as a homeschool curriculum. The idea behind it is that America was basically perfect upon its founding. Such a belief makes people not want to change things like the Senate or the electoral college… because the godlike founders surely couldn’t have been wrong.
 

lizkat

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If the candidate isn't Trump it will be somebody just like him and probably worse because they'll share his views but keep away from his mistakes (that should have disqualified him but didn't).

I have thought so too, and it has felt like a nightmare scenario... but so far I don't see who that savvier person is, or at least not one who's savvy and also strikes me as able to grab enough indie votes to make the cut. But then I'm prejudiced lol

Here's a quick rundown of possible GOP candidates for 2024, from the Deseret News (Salt Lake City) updated as of July 12, 2021:

 

lizkat

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Plus all the laws that make it harder to vote for people not in the Trump target demographic. He could lose by 7 million votes and win the electoral college.

I was reading about the ”1776” thing that Trump did. The college that started it is now selling it as a homeschool curriculum. The idea behind it is that America was basically perfect upon its founding. Such a belief makes people not want to change things like the Senate or the electoral college… because the godlike founders surely couldn’t have been wrong.

What bothers me is that liberal Dems ran a slew of op-eds and commentary on Trump's 1776 gig and .... promptly moved on.

Compare and contrast to entire cottage industries of right wing think tanks and foundations ranting to this very minute about the 1619 project.

This is part of why Dems lose elections. They pronounce stuff as though "there, see? Fixed that for ya" and they move on. The Rs stick to their guns (and yeah, bibles too).
 

SuperMatt

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What bothers me is that liberal Dems ran a slew of op-eds and commentary on Trump's 1776 gig and .... promptly moved on.

Compare and contrast to entire cottage industries of right wing think tanks and foundations ranting to this very minute about the 1619 project.

This is part of why Dems lose elections. They pronounce stuff as though "there, see? Fixed that for ya" and they move on. The Rs stick to their guns (and yeah, bibles too).
They should be writing more about it. It’s getting massive positive coverage in the right-wing press right now. Type “Hillsdale 1776” into a search engine and be prepared to scroll through pages of right-wing love-fests and nary a critical article to be seen.
 

Herdfan

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I said that same thing before his first term and we all know how that turned out. I think it would be unwise for anyone to underestimate his ability to win another election, it should be taken just as seriously as the last election IMO.

Did Trump win or did Hillary lose?
 

Joe

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Ted Cruz is trying to become the next Trump. Do y'all follow him on Twitter?

The only difference is that he's actually smart and could do worse damage. Trump is an idiot.
 

Eric

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Ted Cruz is trying to become the next Trump. Do y'all follow him on Twitter?

The only difference is that he's actually smart and could do worse damage. Trump is an idiot.
He is pretty universally hated, even by people in his own party. The most hypocritical Mexican in all of politics.
 

thekev

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Ted Cruz is trying to become the next Trump. Do y'all follow him on Twitter?

The only difference is that he's actually smart and could do worse damage. Trump is an idiot.

This doesn't follow. intelligence doesn't tell you what he could do. Trump's actions don't seem to rely on intelligence at all, just the ability to motivate angry people, some of which may have legitimate grievances. I'm not seeing the evidence that superior intellect would further this.
 

lizkat

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Did Trump win or did Hillary lose?

On balance I'd say that Hillary lost, and that even Trump was shocked by that fact. Certainly his staff was shocked, I mean their transition team was a joke and had only existed because they had to have one by law. More to the point of choice though, some voters who went for Trump as a lark were also shocked, and dismayed.

I believe that among Dems who had worked for and voted for Sanders in the primaries, there was a badly mistaken feeling that a vote for Trump in the fall of 2016 was "just" a protest vote and so not unlike casting a vote for third party lefty candidate Stein. However, if they did that in 2016 and were voting in one of the rust belt states, it was an unwise and politically unsavvy move, if they generally did favor Democratic over Republican platforms. In other words I think there was a significant anti-Clinton vote in Trump's winning margins. I'd call that outcome "Hillary lost".

He is pretty universally hated, even by people in his own party. The most hypocritical Mexican in all of politics.

Cruz let himself been seen as an opportunist early on, and made big mistakes in dissing McConnell (once actually calling him a liar from the Senate floor!). Plus all those early days of wandering over to the House on his own initiative, to try to tell the GOP's House Freedom Caucus how to operate and what bills to propose or shoot down, etc. Senators don't go to the House except by invitation. But Cruz made himself out as special.

We as a country now may struggle to live under rule of laws we write for ourselves through consensus, but the US Senate still has some very old protocols about behavior of members, and it was never up to a guy like Cruz who was still wet behind the ears to try to rewrite them on the fly.

There are only 100 Senators at a time on this planet, and they all have long memories about stuff like that. And they have connections to big donors and their staffers have connections to the worker bees in the state and national committees as well. Cruz is still stuck on how special it was for him to have clerked for a Supreme Court Chief Justice (Rehnquist) and he acts sometimes like that has given him special insight into how not only the judiciary but the executive and legislative branches of the US government should be run. That attitude had fetched him further criticism from outside his own bailiwick even back in 2015, and in turn those critics do have influence on public perceptions of him.

 
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