The Democrat agenda 2022 and going forward

[Eric]

Here's how UC Berkeley's IGS breaks it down:

Release #2024-06: Garvey Now in a Statistical Tie with Schiff in Full-Term U.S. Senate Primary

Author(s): DiCamillo, Mark

escholarship.org

And that seems to be completely accurate to me, taking Porter into consideration. What I'm asking you (and all of these others) is what happens to the losers voters once a nominee has been chosen? If the answer is not "they turn Republican and vote for Garvey" then it gives the nominee a huge advantage. Not sure how anyone is missing this.

 

[Citysnaps]

What I'm asking you (and all of these others) is what happens to the losers voters once a nominee has been chosen?

To me it's unclear. After the general election, the two top candidates (from any party or no party) will have a runoff in the general election. Those who voted for primary "losers" will likely then make a choice for whoever the two runoff candidates are - I'm guessing Schiff and Garvey. It's unclear to me which way the majority of those who voted for the losers will lean in the general election.

I can see that going either way. But... that was not the point of my original post, which was that in a normal non-trumpian world, there should be a large difference in poling between Schiff and Garvey. That Garvey is statistically tied with Schiff, to me, is disturbing.

I witnessed shit happening in 2016, and I've been seeing it percolate now re trump/scotus and voters not real happy with Biden.

To muddy the waters even more regarding the way voters are apparently leaning in general, here's another nugget to contemplate:

Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds

The share of voters who strongly disapprove of President Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Herdfan]

Right, so if you add the additional 27% of the vote being siphoned off from Schiff, between the other remaining Democrats, when they shift after Schiff is the nominee it will be a total blowout loss for Garvey. I don't know why the media is neglecting to even talk about that, I guess they want to see the drama of a statistical tie.

Yes and you fell for it by posting a link. That's all they care about. Everything is for a click.

As for Garvey, I think he missed his chance. Few under 50 have no idea just how popular he was with the Dodgers and Padres. He was "the man". I hated the Dodgers, but always liked Garvey.

Had he done this in the 90's when he still had a name and CA was redder, he would have probably won.

 

[Eric]

Yes and you fell for it by posting a link. That's all they care about. Everything is for a click.

As for Garvey, I think he missed his chance. Few under 50 have no idea just how popular he was with the Dodgers and Padres. He was "the man". I hated the Dodgers, but always liked Garvey.

Had he done this in the 90's when he still had a name and CA was redder, he would have probably won.

But I posted that link to make my point

Considering it’s CA all they have to do is tie Garvey to Trump in every ad (which they’re doing now) and it’ll tank him. It’s a blue state and unless there’s some miracle he’ll never get elected. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last real celebrity to run as a Republican and he had broad appeal across both parties, Garvey clearly does not.

 

[Citysnaps]

I'm in the somewhat-to-strongly agree category, from the perspective of current optics, and for future fitness for the job 1-4 years from now.

Majority of Biden’s 2020 Voters Now Say He’s Too Old to Be Effective

A New York Times/Siena College poll revealed how much even his supporters worry about his age, intensifying what has become a grave threat to his re-election bid.

www.nytimes.com

 

[MEJHarrison]

I somewhat-to-strongly agree, from the perspective of current optics, and future fitness for the job 1-4 years from now.

The problem is the other side is putting up someone almost as old, just an unqualified for the same reasons and a criminal to boot. It's not like we have a good alternative. I'll vote for old man over old criminal every day of the week.

 

[Citysnaps]

The problem is the other side is putting up someone almost as old, just an unqualified for the same reasons and a criminal to boot. It's not like we have a good alternative. I'll vote for old man over old criminal every day of the week.

I agree. I'd never vote for trump.

However from a pure optics perspective, trump comes off much stronger and more energetic/robust than Biden, even though trump is no doubt far less healthier, lies as effortlessly as most people breathe, and is facing 91 felonies. That doesn't seem to be hurting his numbers.

It's not like we have a good alternative.

We certainly don't now. There were a few outstanding alternatives. Sadly, Biden chose to not step up and promote a more viable candidate to take the reins and move the country forward without the risk. Seems selfish to me.

Also... his campaigning has been a mess, almost non-existent. David Axelrod (Obama's campaign strategist) has spoken out on that subject. How he's handled the Israel-Palestinian situation is another issue.

 

[Eric]

The problem is the other side is putting up someone almost as old, just an unqualified for the same reasons and a criminal to boot. It's not like we have a good alternative. I'll vote for old man over old criminal every day of the week.

Agreed, in the end it's going to come down to old man vs old man. One thing everyone agrees on is both of these candidates are the worst possible choices but I'll continue to ask the same question, how does Trump move those in the middle who decide elections? Because "Biden is too old" won't do it when the other guy is facing a bunch of felonies and trials.

 

[Citysnaps]

I'll continue to ask the same question, how does Trump move those in the middle who decide elections? Because "Biden is too old" won't do it when the other guy is facing a bunch of felonies and trials.

I think for many it will boil down to optics and who appears to be the most energetic and forceful. And in trump’s case, aided with boatloads of feel-good bs and Biden slams.

Especially if scotus gives trump a pass.

 

[Citysnaps]

On tonight’s news Harris came out swinging demanding an Israel-hamas cease fire.

Whoa! Holy smokes….where did that unexpected burst of energy come from? Surely not a Plan B in play at this stage.

Or maybe Biden feels it’s necessary to play it safe and not rock the boat too much.

 

[Herdfan]

We certainly don't now. There were a few outstanding alternatives. Sadly, Biden Jill chose to not step up and promote a more viable candidate to take the reins and move the country forward without the risk. Seems selfish to me.

Also... his campaigning has been a mess, almost non-existent. David Axelrod (Obama's campaign strategist) has spoken out on that subject. How he's handled the Israel-Palestinian situation is another issue.

There, fixed that for you.

Agreed, in the end it's going to come down to old man vs old man. One thing everyone agrees on is both of these candidates are the worst possible choices but I'll continue to ask the same question, how does Trump move those in the middle who decide elections? Because "Biden is too old" won't do it when the other guy is facing a bunch of felonies and trials.

I am simply going to tell you the thought process here and it's not complicated.

Most on the right believe these are political charges. I mean you had someone running for DA on the basis of "getting Trump" before they had looked at a single piece of evidence or interviewed a single witness.

If you don't believe the charges are real, then why would think they matter. And every time Trump gets a favorable ruling, like today's 9-0 SCOTUS decision, these beliefs become even more ingrained. Think about how many voters will look at today's decision as Colorado accused him of insurrection, but SCOTUS said he didn't, so he must not have, while ignoring the details of why. We are a headline/click society.

With every indictment, he gets stronger, not weaker.

And this is just my opinion, but this is seen very clearly in the latest NYT/Sienna Poll, there is something in there that should scare the hell out of the left. And that is the Black support Trump is getting. He is up to 23% in this poll. That is earthquake level.

Now, again, just my take, but for years the narrative is Blacks are falsely accused by the justice system, but now they are looking at Trump being falsely accused and it resonates.

The other big takeaway from this poll is Trump is retaining 97% of those who voted for him in '20, Biden is only retaining 80% and 10% are going to Trump. That is a big swing.

I do think the D's have a better chance at convincing Biden(Jill) to drop out than the R's do of convincing Trump.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Most on the right believe these are political charges. I mean you had someone running for DA on the basis of "getting Trump" before they had looked at a single piece of evidence or interviewed a single witness.

The bolded part is a lie. Most of what Trump has done in public, in the open was questionably illegal, and certainly warranting an investigation. Lots of people said they were going to investigate and impeach Biden before they were privy to any evidence. What’s the difference, besides there being a lot more evidence of Trump’s wrongdoing?

What would be a crime that Trump could be charged for that you would agree is not political? Because we can be hyperbolic and say rape or murder, but it would also have been hyperbolic in 2016 to mention trying to steal an election, seizing voting equipment, asking foreign presidents to investigate your opponent, etc.

All of that has happened, and more, and you defend each act and sum it up by saying “It all seems political”.

No offense, but that’s BS.

 

[Citysnaps]

Most on the right believe these are political charges. I mean you had someone running for DA on the basis of "getting Trump" before they had looked at a single piece of evidence or interviewed a single witness.

Which DA/prosecutor and charges are you referring to?

 

[Renzatic]

Most on the right believe these are political charges. I mean you had someone running for DA on the basis of "getting Trump" before they had looked at a single piece of evidence or interviewed a single witness.

Wasn't one of Trump's campaign promises that he'd have Hillary imprisoned for her alleged crimes?

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

 

[MEJHarrison]

Most on the right believe these are political charges. I mean you had someone running for DA on the basis of "getting Trump" before they had looked at a single piece of evidence or interviewed a single witness.

I'm glad someone is willing to call that out. It's not how things normally work, but in this case, he should do his jail time first, then be found guilty by a jury, then they can have a trial, then he should be charged by the DA and finally, they should be able to investigate the crimes that were captured on tape and played for the entire world. Because that makes sense, total MAGA-sense. He should be freed of any crimes because the prosecution lacks the proper time machine to handle a case of this magnitude.

And somewhere there in the middle of that mess, he should tell the world he's 215 pounds.

 

[MEJHarrison]

Most on the right believe these are political charges. I mean you had someone running for DA on the basis of "getting Trump" before they had looked at a single piece of evidence or interviewed a single witness.

Let's pretend I give a damn about basketball and that the Bulls just beat the Blazers. Now let's say I travel from Portland to Chicago. While there, I knock over that famous statue that's in all the TV shows and movies. And I tape a note to it that says "Chicago Sucks Bull Balls". This is caught on camera and played for the whole world to see.

Now let's say someone is running for the DA position. And they vow that if elected, they will go after me, make me pay for my crimes and restore honor to all of Chicago.

See how that all sounds perfectly sane and normal when there's no cult involved? Someone wants votes, so they're telling the voters exactly what they plan to do if elected which is hopefully what the voters want to hear. The people then say "hey, I want someone who will do those things, so you have my vote". Then they get elected and may or may not do the things they promised to do. That's called "politics" and is completely normal and routine.

Would you vote for someone who says "If elected I'll do things. I don't have any clue exactly what that will be yet, because I've not had the opportunity to investigate any crimes. But know that if elected I will start investigating. And then I will do things. And you'll pleased with the things I do. My opponent has also done things. Maybe they were good things, maybe they were bad things. I have no way of knowing that at this point, but if elected, I promise that I'll investigate my opponent and find out if the things they did were good or bad."

 

[Roller]

There, fixed that for you.



I am simply going to tell you the thought process here and it's not complicated.

Most on the right believe these are political charges. I mean you had someone running for DA on the basis of "getting Trump" before they had looked at a single piece of evidence or interviewed a single witness.

If you don't believe the charges are real, then why would think they matter. And every time Trump gets a favorable ruling, like today's 9-0 SCOTUS decision, these beliefs become even more ingrained. Think about how many voters will look at today's decision as Colorado accused him of insurrection, but SCOTUS said he didn't, so he must not have, while ignoring the details of why. We are a headline/click society.

With every indictment, he gets stronger, not weaker.

And this is just my opinion, but this is seen very clearly in the latest NYT/Sienna Poll, there is something in there that should scare the hell out of the left. And that is the Black support Trump is getting. He is up to 23% in this poll. That is earthquake level.

Now, again, just my take, but for years the narrative is Blacks are falsely accused by the justice system, but now they are looking at Trump being falsely accused and it resonates.

The other big takeaway from this poll is Trump is retaining 97% of those who voted for him in '20, Biden is only retaining 80% and 10% are going to Trump. That is a big swing.

I do think the D's have a better chance at convincing Biden(Jill) to drop out than the R's do of convincing Trump.

Do *you* think these are political charges? I'm referring to everything Trump has been accused or already been found guilty of, including his actions around the 2020 election and on January 6, 2021, his handling of sensitive documents, his business dealings in NY, and even what he did to E. Jean Carroll, which he and many of his supporters have called a "witch hunt." Because if you do, there's nothing more for us to discuss here.

 

[rdrr]

Do *you* think these are political charges? I'm referring to everything Trump has been accused or already been found guilty of, including his actions around the 2020 election and on January 6, 2021, his handling of sensitive documents, his business dealings in NY, and even what he did to E. Jean Carroll, which he and many of his supporters have called a "witch hunt." Because if you do, there's nothing more for us to discuss here.

If you are looking for an answer from @Herdfan you won't get one. You'll get another question or a point that implies that Biden is going to lose or is too old. Maybe you'll get some non answer, answer that won't at all answer your questions but it will somehow relate that no MAGA could believe such a political hit job. Old Biden..., Fani Willis..., Steele Dossier..., blah, blah, blah

 

[Eric]

If you are looking for an answer from @Herdfan you won't get one. You'll get another question or a point that implies that Biden is going to lose or is too old. Maybe you'll get some non answer, answer that won't at all answer your questions but it will somehow relate that no MAGA could believe such a political hit job. Old Biden..., Fani Willis..., Steele Dossier..., blah, blah, blah

This. I don't get why anyone wastes their time with these long explanations because he'll never, ever see it. I don't mind Republicans who are able to see the bigger picture (and they do exist) but no matter how much he denies it he's flat out 100% MAGA through and through. But, people here seem to like that engagement so we've let him be.

 

[Yoused]

But, people here seem to like that engagement so we've let him be.

Thing is, we are talking about what we want to happen. HF is talking about what is currently likely to happen, based on some polling data. We do not want to believe that, because we do not want to believe that Americans are that stupid. But, they already showed us how stupid they can be. If the Ds ignore the polling data and let bugfuckery rule the day, it becomes harder and harder to wholeheartedly support them. It is disappointing that our flavor of democracy gives assholes a leg up over decent people.